Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chambana]

39 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Couple days of cad and then we go Oregon mode until at least January 

Hot start will be a distant memory 

So this is NOT our moment

[A-L-E-K]

looking at the eps this morning

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Chambana said:

So this is NOT our moment

Yes. It was.

[cyclone77]

[A-L-E-K]

70 or bust, if we're gonna torch, might as well torch

[Cary67]

Xmas gift

[Spartman]

Christmas torch still holding strong on the 12z Euro, only for the cold to return just after Christmas 

[A-L-E-K]

brutal torch - dry fopa - cad combo there

hard pass

[Radtechwxman]

Sat snow seems more north on runs today but guessing that will shift south like today's clipper did 

[Chicago Storm]

Sat snow seems more north on runs today but guessing that will shift south like today's clipper did 

I’m not saying that it will happen, but there is a way for the weekend clipper to end up north, even with the current clipper ending up well south.

[frostfern]

Avoiding Pacific flood of boring impossible post 2020.  Hopefully doesn’t last an entire month this time.

[A-L-E-K]

too real^

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Avoiding Pacific flood of boring impossible post 2020.  Hopefully doesn’t last an entire month this time.

It seems it would only take a little adjustment in that upcoming pattern for it to actually be interesting around here. A little less western trough and a little less SE ridge would make it interesting here. There will be a lot of cold just north and west of here and probably ample gulf moisture heading up this way too.

[frostfern]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

too real^

I feel we were spoiled in the 00s and 10s. 

[Radtechwxman]

29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I’m not saying that it will happen, but there is a way for the weekend clipper to end up north, even with the current clipper ending up well south.

Hoping it doesn't follow baroclinic zone put down by today's snow and more so the incoming temp gradient with the arctic front. ILX seems to think it will follow snow swath of today's system and be more south. Models right now disagree. But obviously could change. 

[Powerball]

On 12/10/2025 at 10:04 AM, A-L-E-K said:

 

 

[Harry Perry]

14 days out - plenty of time to turn around. I remember not long ago the GFS and Euro showing 50’s and 60’s for thanksgiving a week out and look how that turned out. 

[A-L-E-K]

Extended about as bad as it gets, makes sense we see folks in the bargaining and denial stages still

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Extended about as bad as it gets, makes sense we see folks in the bargaining and denial stages still

Well you didn’t really expect December to end up like 15 degrees below normal for an entire month, did you? lol

[A-L-E-K]

i think only beavis expects that

[Baum]

Let’s look at the positives on some things not seen in years around these parts  :

1. Early start to winter in December with substantial snowfall and arctic air

2. Storms cutting from the southwest and not suppressing south and east

3. Clipper Train

The spell is broken. I’m guessing the Pacific flood will be short lived. This is not an El Niño Christmas 

 

[sbnwx85]

If you can’t beat ‘em, torch ‘em.

[A-L-E-K]

gfs selling mid upper 60s on xmas (fwiw record is 64 at ORD)

signal not going away 

[A-L-E-K]

41 minutes ago, Baum said:

I’m guessing the Pacific flood will be short lived. 

 

 

[Cary67]

Have to be appreciative of the fact 17-18" is in the bank before Xmas. Two substantial events; one 6-10" and another 4-7". As stated above we broke the streak of horrid Decembers. Hopefully January and February present some windows to get above 30-35" for seasonal totals. Been tough to break 25" lately.

[A-L-E-K]

wheels would have to really come off for a sub 30 season at ord given the hot start

but anyone expecting the upcoming warmup to go poof will be beavis posting by january

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Ground is still warm too, clear off the snow and get some good cold days then lets start stacking again. 

[Nelson]

Hoping the end of run look on the ensembles continues and we can get that big a** ridge to move east - set up for cutter season.

[Baum]

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1999483716192915683?s=61

[A-L-E-K]