Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm

[WxMatt21]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

@Jackstraw Euro is doin' its thing to us.

A bit strange to see such a dramatic reversal - it's on an island at this point. Even the ensemble isn't quite so drastic with the cut off. 

If some of the hi res guidance suggested something like this I would start getting concerned, but after seeing the 12z GFS/HRRR, as well as the 15z RAP, I don't think this run was the start of an overall trend. Crossing fingers 

[Radtechwxman]

1 hour ago, fluoronium said:

I worry about mixing too. Winds will have a southerly component here for the whole event and the low tracks to our NW. Even in January, that gives a rainer almost every time. We should at least get a good hit near the start though. 

Yeah the early morning through mid to possibly late afternoon look good here. Probably several hours of solid rates. But I would be shocked with a low track that north if we dont mix or switchover at some point. But good thing is here looks to happen towards end of the event when most of our accumulation is done already. This system doesn't have much of a deformation zone. 

[IWXwx]

12 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

A bit strange to see such a dramatic reversal - it's on an island at this point. Even the ensemble isn't quite so drastic with the cut off. 

If some of the hi res guidance suggested something like this I would start getting concerned, but after seeing the 12z GFS/HRRR, as well as the 15z RAP, I don't think this run was the start of an overall trend. Crossing fingers 

Crossing my fingers too. I saw your call and if it is onto something, you might have to bring your totals down a little, especially to the south and I would that for you (and me lol). But at least you have warned the public about possible last minute changes since we are riding the edge. So far IWX and you are in pretty good agreement though.

[SchaumburgStormer]

For old times sake, SREF plume has me at 9.5” with a number of higher members and nothing below 7”. Locked in. 

[hawkeye_wx]

12z Euro... doesn't get much better for Iowa.

[Radtechwxman]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Euro... doesn't get much better for Iowa.

Must be nice. Lol. Y'all really get spoiled up there. Can't tell you last time we got double digits snow here. 

[WxMatt21]

21 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Crossing my fingers too. I saw your call and if it is onto something, you might have to bring your totals down a little, especially to the south and I would that for you (and me lol). But at least you have warned the public about possible last minute changes since we are riding the edge. So far IWX and you are in pretty good agreement though.

Yeah, I noticed IWX has been pretty hesitant to use their NDFD output until recently! 

And wouldn't you know it, 12 ECMWF came in wetter/snowier, and in better alignment with the rest. Right now, I'm going to wait for the 18z NAM/HRRR to come in before making drastic changes, but my team is struggling with whether we want to keep things the same or up the totals since the consensus has been overwhelmingly snowy for most. My argument against is compaction, which could give off the impression we were dead wrong lol! 

Also, I'll be curious to know how well the NBM does when all is said and done. It has hardly budged over the past 48 hours

 

 

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

MLI will exceed its 2024-25 total in 2025-26 before December.

Thinking 4-6" here. Hoping the dryslot/potential end as rain in sunday morning isn't too bad. 

Yep, and ironically it'll be the very first measurable snowfall of 25-26 there lol.  Have had 0.3" here.

[King James]

Wild how nonchalantly we stumbled into maps like this. Like Alek mentioned, the decent antecedent conditions for once is cool and something I'd willingly accept in lieu of better ratios later on.

Every single member on the forum has been sleeping on this one

[IWXwx]

8 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

Yeah, I noticed IWX has been pretty hesitant to use their NDFD output until recently! 

And wouldn't you know it, 12 ECMWF came in wetter/snowier, and in better alignment with the rest. Right now, I'm going to wait for the 18z NAM/HRRR to come in before making drastic changes, but my team is struggling with whether we want to keep things the same or up the totals. My argument against is compaction, which could give off the impression we were dead wrong lol! 

Also, I'll be curious to know how well the NBM does when all is said and done. It has hardly budged over the past 48 hours

 

 

I'm glad to hear that the Euro decided to play ball. I wasn't aware of that concerning the NBM.

[cyclone77]

21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Euro... doesn't get much better for Iowa.

That 1 foot swath is about identical to the derecho 2020 swath lol.

[donsutherland1]

The latest HREF output:

[Stevo6899]

Kinda annoying were starting the yr off with similar outcome around here lately with totals dissipating as the storm rolls east. Enjoy ia,il,in,west mich folks.

[SolidIcewx]

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Kinda annoying were starting the yr off with similar outcome around here lately with totals dissipating as the storm rolls east. Enjoy ia,il,in,west mich folks.

Gonna be interesting to see the variations in storm totals from west to east in the Detroit Metro.

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, SolidIcewx said:

Gonna be interesting to see the variations in storm totals from west to east in the Detroit Metro.

Trends aren't bad at all.

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yep, and ironically it'll be the very first measurable snowfall of 25-26 there lol.  Have had 0.3" here.

Not that last year was a banner year here (29.5") but you got so screwed im happy for you to be in the jackpot

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Kinda annoying were starting the yr off with similar outcome around here lately with totals dissipating as the storm rolls east. Enjoy ia,il,in,west mich folks.

Still looks like a solid snowfall. Very solid November.

[Stebo]

17 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Gonna be interesting to see the variations in storm totals from west to east in the Detroit Metro.

I don't think the negative lake influence will be as prevalence as some models show.

[sbnwx85]

WSW up. I never dreamed November would produce another big dog this year after the 10" lake-effect event three weeks ago, but here it is. 

Some areas to my immediate northeast will have 18" on the ground thanks to last night's lake event.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

DTX is gonna have to go from no headlines to warnings at this point 

[Stevo6899]

12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

DTX is gonna have to go from no headlines to warnings at this point 

Nah, advisory.

[AWMT30]

Gonna be funny with SE Michigan with an advisory and Toledo under a Winter Storm Warning, 

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

Gonna be funny with SE Michigan with an advisory and Toledo under a Winter Storm Warning, 

Yeah, I normally don't disagree with DTX, but with the holiday travel and the face that the western part of their CWA is absolutely going to be warning criteria, I don't get the reluctance. I would do WSW for the entire CWA, it's borderline but the travel would be the tipping point to a warning

 

[sbnwx85]

54 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah, I normally don't disagree with DTX, but with the holiday travel and the face that the western part of their CWA is absolutely going to be warning criteria, I don't get the reluctance. I would do WSW for the entire CWA, it's borderline but the travel would be the tipping point to a warning

 

If IND can pull their WSW all the way south to Indy, DTX can cover their CWA with a warning, too.

[migratingwx]

18z HRRR

 

[Harry Perry]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Yeah, I normally don't disagree with DTX, but with the holiday travel and the face that the western part of their CWA is absolutely going to be warning criteria, I don't get the reluctance. I would do WSW for the entire CWA, it's borderline but the travel would be the tipping point to a warning

 

Must be contagious. First it was GRR for several years, now DTX too. 
 

I agree with you 100%. Second busiest holiday travel day in conjunction with 5-8” of snow and 30+ mph winds… just issue the warning. For many it’s the difference between waiting a day or two and just hunkering down vs. in the ditch with a wrecked vehicle or worse. Who cares if the amount of snow doesn’t specifically meet “warning” criteria, it’s irrelevant when it comes to life & safety IMO. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Iwx just upped the amounts to 9 to 14, must be something juicy in the 18Z suite 

[Jackstraw]

3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

@Jackstraw Euro is doin' its thing to us.

Watch out for those COD snow maps, their algorithm ain't right. Go with pivotal snow maps. Also 10/1 gonna be closer to reality. Might go Kuchera on anything past early Sunday morning (if it's there) and next week. Like I said on my call I'm literally still on the make or break line lol ( kitchen sink climo for these slow cutters). For the record the Ukie and the Canuk have been the most consistent in their forecast the last 60 hours or so. Whether they verify well.... 

KIND calling for roughly 3-5 here but 2 miles to my N IWX is calling for 4-8 Iol. Sticking to my guns on my 6" call as we tend to underperform by a bit or overperform by a lot in these setups where the low tracks just to the NW by the southern lake yet there's decent antecedent cold air in place prior. While I think we may get some  liquid I thing it may only be a couple hundredths of drizzle at most. This is a setup where a dry slot could be my friend. Think I'm in good spot to avoid a rainer chaser. Sub surface ground temps around my property are just above freezing in full sun so I dont think there will be a lot of melting but there could certainly be a little bit. Wipe the board properly when measuring and compaction dont count in a total! Regardless it looks like Nov '25 will beat my entire winter last year which is really BAD! lol. 

I think you, Kokomo and even Tipton in a lot better shape.  As it says in Stebo's comment in my sig, I'm a bird fart away from warning snows or slushy mud-cicles lol. Good luck!

[A-L-E-K]

Been a while since we've spread the wealth like this

 

[Harry Perry]

7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Iwx just upped the amounts to 9 to 14, must be something juicy in the 18Z suite 

Ensembles have been juiced and most of the short range guidance (18z) is increasing qpf as well. Also trending better for the eastern side of the state.