December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Near perfect placement on that high. Look at that CAD signature.

Facilitated by a legit dipole block that is textbook perfect at h5- that 50-50 low isn't escaping so the upper convergence/confluence to the west is persistent, keeping the high in place in an ideal spot.

Hopefully we see something like this at some point in the coming weeks. Nice to see the block having some persistence on the guidance. We gonna need it.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Facilitated by a legit dipole block that is textbook perfect at h5- that 50-50 low isn't escaping so the upper convergence/confluence to the west is persistent, keeping the high in place in an ideal spot.

Hopefully we see something like this at some point in the coming weeks. Nice to see the block having some persistence on the guidance. We gonna need it.

Is this the year the can warmth just gets can kicked?

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is this the year the can warmth just gets can kicked?

from your lips....

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is this the year the can warmth just gets can kicked?

It happened a lot last year too iirc. It wasn't a high snowfall winter but last winter was certainly more old school flavor than the last 15+ years. 2013-15 was an extreme/unusual pattern. Last year was different in that respect. 

Intuition has been prodding me last couple years that the decadal or whatever it is blocking cycle was flipping and this year is basically confirming it (for now at least). Doesn't mean every winter will be blocky but it does imply that 8 out of 10 or 10 out of 13 will be blocking friendly based on history. We can worry about that later after the NAO does some magic this year haha

[mitchnick]

53 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Classic setup with strong surface HP locked in right where we want it because of the block.

Last night's Euro had a very similar scenario, but a few days later and kept the bulk of the system to our south. Close enough, however, to qualify as a match in my weenie manual! Lol

[bncho]

Liking the trends I saw. As that super -NAO starts to trend more west-based it kinda moves the central-US ridge west because the -NAO amplifies the eastern trough, which inherently helps us trend towards a more positive PNA (trending from negative towards neutrality). A 6z GFS kind of scenario is certainly possible--that storm actually tries to cut N/NE-ward--but the -NAO is just so strong that it gets shunted south giving US some wintry weather.

edit: NW is wrong, meant NE

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[H2O]

For all this model stuff being nice to see, proof is in the pudding.  Lets see if/when it happens and then maybe the models will start to sniff out threats

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Time to watch is the rising back up after 12/28.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, 6z AIGFS has essentially the same threat as the Gfs, just a bit more "realistic"?

 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Classic setup with strong surface HP locked in right where we want it because of the block.

I’ll be gone from Dec 26-Jan 3 so not paying as much attention as normal but I do think that period holds serious potential for exactly this type of event.  I don’t think it’s a huge storm setup. Waves will likely not be amplifying in that flow. But I definitely see a healthy NS wave getting forced under us and it doesn’t take a lot of moisture to make something decent work out in that setup. 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Time to watch is the rising back up after 12/28.

I’ll be back in time for the 1996 redux 

[Terpeast]

Good trends on ensembles. We may have something trackable here, which is sooner than I thought. Hopefully it is that kind of winter this year. 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I’ll be gone from Dec 26-Jan 3 so not paying as much attention as normal but I do think that period holds serious potential for exactly this type of event.  I don’t think it’s a huge storm setup. Waves will likely not be amplifying in that flow. But I definitely see a healthy NS wave getting forced under us and it doesn’t take a lot of moisture to make something decent work out in that setup. 

Fun and wacky things can happen with major blocks. Note that in those GFS charts @CAPEposted, the PAC side still isn’t great but it’s not total trash. Trough only extends down to Seattle or so and has a tilt toward the SW offshore. Allows a little ridging at a good longitude for us. So you can couple a C- Pac side with an A+ Atlantic side and that absolutely can work. 

[pazzo83]

10 hours ago, bncho said:

I had a mental breakdown trying to understand the 0z Euro.

it got confused and thinks this is the Southern Hemisphere?

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

For all this model stuff being nice to see, proof is in the pudding.  Lets see if/when it happens and then maybe the models will start to sniff out threats

so what you're saying is let's make a thread

[dailylurker]

Crickets after that gfs run lol

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Crickets after that gfs run lol

Not over and threats are later.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Crickets after that gfs run lol

I like the flurries it shows on the 23rd lol

[dailylurker]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I like the flurries it shows on the 23rd lol

I don't like the wall of summer just to our sw lol

[mitchnick]

That surface high at 288hrs looks too far east vs 6z.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That surface high at 288hrs looks too far east vs 6z.

Yeah both the low and high pressure are weaker and the low is really slow coming east. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah both the low and high pressure are weaker and the low is really slow coming east. 

Are we really analyzing post 200 hour gfs. Woof lol 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That surface high at 288hrs looks too far east vs 6z.

There isn't an established block this run. That high is gonna exit stage right lol.

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There isn't an established block this run. That high is gonna exit stage right lol.

Block was lousy throughout the run really resulting in few cold intrusions.

[Terpeast]

Clearly the goal posts are still very wide, and until the block establishes itself there will be a lot of uncertainty in our sensible weather outcomes. 6z takes us to the promised land while 12z shows us a poor case scenario. What’s most likely to happen is something in the middle, cool dreary CAD with maybe a mixed event with more snow to the north of this sub (and even this is low confidence).

[87storms]

I actually had a fairly vivid dream last night about a 6-10” snowfall.  Weird hobby.

[baltosquid]

The GEFS really wants a storm over the central CONUS, destination unknown! Extremely evident even on just 6hr QPF at over 200 hours. So the storm is there, it just does not know where to go with it once it gets spun up!! 

[aldie 22]

I told you guys we have to wait until the back half of January 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I told you guys we have to wait until the back half of January 

At least we have a home address. 

[jayyy]

I told you guys we have to wait until the back half of January 

Why? Because one run of the GFS 240+ hours out said so?