December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[poolz1]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It does have a scale, but if you're on a phone, you need to turn it horizontal. By doing that, you'll see 3 icons on the bottom, right of the map. Touch the middle one for the scale. It's a probability scale.

Got it!  Thank you.  But what the hell is the white color?  Not even on the scale. lol.  I'm just bored, it doesn't really matter.  Ready to track something other than the weeklies.

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Got it!  Thank you.  But what the hell is the white color?  Not even on the scale. lol.  I'm just bored, it doesn't really matter.  Ready to track something other than the weeklies.

Since the scale explanation mentions "significance ", I've just figured there was nothing compelling warm or cold, so I figure near normal.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The only probability scale that we should be using is the fact that any models forecasting warmth in week 2 or beyond have been wrong this season. Cold has won out since Thanksgiving this year. 
We will have our chances to score. 

The models saw this current nationwide warm spell coming, and it happened.  The NE seaboard was definitely spared the worst of it, but we can't say the warmth didn't verify.

[IronTy]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

JB was honking about this earlier on a WB post.  Hopefully it comes to fruition. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

JB was honking about this earlier on a WB post.  Hopefully it comes to fruition. 

Me too. Would rather take a train of small and medium sized events over one "big dog" that just blows the blocking apart in under a week. Snow on snow is always fun!

[StormyClearweather]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Me too. Would rather take a train of small and medium sized events over one "big dog" that just blows the blocking apart in under a week. Snow on snow is always fun!

I mean I guess I’ll settle for 2 10” storms instead of one 12”, if I must. 
 

Separately, isn’t the JMA a joke? Serious Q. 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I mean I guess I’ll settle for 2 10” storms instead of one 12”, if I must. 
 

Separately, isn’t the JMA a joke? Serious Q. 

Jma scores coups sometimes. I wouldn't call it a joke, but it's  not a consistent top performer.

[stormy]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Jma scores coups sometimes. I wouldn't call it a joke, but it's  not a consistent top performer.

There is no such thing as a consistent top performer.

Most would consider the ECMWF and GFS as leading the pack, but neither one is a consistent winner. 

[poolz1]

The end of the 6z gefs looks like it is a day or 2 from that JMA look.  EPS also.    

GEFS

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

The end of the 6z gefs looks like it is a day or 2 from that JMA look.  EPS also.    

GEFS

EPS for reference:

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just to note, I really dislike 'unicorn' hunting in the very long range. Mainly because of past lessons personally learned. But, we are also not in a shutout pattern and we've seen stuff pop up under 120 hours. So while the LR has a flat western ridge, a split flow coming into the west coast, ridging up top, etc Imma keep my eyes on the next 5 days for now.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

EPS for reference:

 

Honest question: why are the low heights over AK not bad in this instance?

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Honest question: why are the low heights over AK not bad in this instance?

Yeah, that's a legit question. While things are still TBD, my answer is that in this case, it's not just low heights over AK, but the aleutian high is getting broken down with lower heights over the aleutians. This leads to a +PNA ridge over the west. If you animate that run from 300-360, you'll see the +PNA ridge building. Plus with that ridge, that extremely cold air over AK/Yukon will get shoved SE towards the eastern US albeit with some modification.

Imagine instead if the aleutian high stayed, and the AK vortex helps dig a trough over the west, then yes that would be bad. But the models aren't showing that.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just to note, I really dislike 'unicorn' hunting in the very long range. Mainly because of past lessons personally learned. But, we are also not in a shutout pattern and we've seen stuff pop up under 120 hours. So while the LR has a flat western ridge, a split flow coming into the west coast, ridging up top, etc Imma keep my eyes on the next 5 days for now.

My very casual looking the last couple days suggests next chance might be a clipper or some snow along an arctic front around NYD.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My very casual looking the last couple days suggests next chance might be a clipper or some snow along an arctic front around NYD.

Although I'm usually optimistic, I  don't like what I'm seeing at all. Yeah, something could pop up, but the advertised pattern looks to me like a different take on cold and dry and there are no single legit threats showing up on the ensembles causing mean snowfall progs to respond. Until some one identifiable threat appears, I  think it's safe to bet on nothing. How I hope that changes.  

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Although I'm usually optimistic, I  don't like what I'm seeing at all. Yeah, something could pop up, but the advertised pattern looks to me like a different take on cold and dry and there are no single legit threats showing up on the ensembles causing mean snowfall progs to respond. Until some one identifiable threat appears, I  think it's safe to bet on nothing. How I hope that changes.  

Think we’re mostly waiting until early or mid January. We’ll see. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The Op runs are showing a lot of activity in the first 10 days of January with storms actually approaching from the south & west instead of the north.

We will likely have the chance to win & lose, but I think it will be better than tracking weak Clippers that the previous few weeks have brought us.

[yoda]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Think we’re mostly waiting until early or mid January. We’ll see. 

Pretty much my thoughts.  I think we are waiting for another 10 days or so for any real threat.

[winter_warlock]

14 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

We've heard that before.. and well it's the JMA so.. lol

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Honest question: why are the low heights over AK not bad in this instance?

Idk. I always thought we wanted lower heights a lil north of Hawaii for us to benefit  here in east usa

[dailylurker]

Looks like a chance at tumble weeds on the gfs. A real snooze fest lol

[87storms]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like a chance at tumble weeds on the gfs. A real snooze fest lol

I’m seriously considering chasing snow this season. I’m kinda due for a ski trip.

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I’m seriously considering chasing snow this season. I’m kinda due for a ski trip.

I've got a chase planned in 3 weeks to the Tug Hill. Hopefully the snowpack is deeeeeeep.. 

[Ji]

Euro has a monster i think lol

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has a monster i think lol

Ends up as a 2-5” that doesn’t bomb til NYC but pattern looks pretty sweet. Couple more boring days til we track something, hopefully 

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ends up as a 2-5” that doesn’t bomb til NYC but pattern looks pretty sweet. Couple more boring days til we track something, hopefully 

we get 3” while NYC gets 15” lol

[Terpeast]

Like I said yesterday, models aren't going to pick up discrete threats in the Jan 5-12 timeframe until we get to New Years and that's why the models look dry and "boring". 

Only now the Euro shows something for Jan 6. It won't verify verbatim probably, but something is there. I didn't think it would show a threat this soon.

OTOH, 12z GFS has 2-3 cutters (which probably won't verify verbatim either). 

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ends up as a 2-5” that doesn’t bomb til NYC but pattern looks pretty sweet. Couple more boring days til we track something, hopefully 

it looked good for a while...smh. the primary ended up going to far north

[stormy]

Euro AI keeps the 6/7 system down in N.C..