December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS is not a complete shut the blinds for NY week.

[Ji]

is this what they call ridge bridge?

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

is this what they call ridge bridge?

No, that's called a euphuked.

[Weather Will]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

is this what they call ridge bridge?

Why do you care what a global model is showing at hour 360?!!!!  They are rarely right even at 120 hours out.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Why do you care what a global model is showing at hour 360?!!!!  They are rarely right even at 120 hours out.

i guess the same reason you do when you post 360 hour maps!

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i guess the same reason you do when you post 360 hour maps!

I only post those in the digital thread now, I try not to piss off Cape.....  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z GEFS is a CONUS blowtorch through the end, hr384. At that point we still have a +300dm Aleutian ridge and +EPO. It will take some time to detox them both in the best case scenario. 

This pattern surprises me a little, before Dec we had 21/29 months of +PNA since 2023 (CPC), and since the 23-24 El Nino ended, we still had 12/20 months of +PNA in negative ENSO. Now all of a sudden we have a Strong La Nina pattern from the N. pacific to the continental US. 

I guess Fall AAM is important, as that is the difference between this year and last year - this year we had a -AAM Fall, last year it was more positive

2nd year -PDO's, when the PDO doesn't work year 1 (+PNA last Winter in deep -PDO), correlates at 1.24x normal year 2.. It's deep negative this year so that could have been another sign. 

[Ji]

EPS went from .3 to .5 from 00z of snow!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

The 2005/6 analog continues to look favorable to how this season is unfolding.  If this continues...

-Feb will not be a wall to wall torch

-We will achieve near climo snowfall

-We are likely out of business through at least mid January

-The coldest anamolies from normal are firmly behind us for the remainder of the entire season

I don't know if you draw positive or negative conclusions from this, its something for everyone.  The models will continue to be volatile day to day.  If anything, to my very untrained eye the pattern progression is moving pretty fast this year and perhaps suggests we wont be out of the game for weeks at a time.  

I sure do wish we could have timed a better pattern for the holidays.  Early December cold is mostly wasted for us.

This is a good point. We are following 05-06 closely right now. There actually aren't many deep -QBO/weak-negative ENSO matches to this year, but 05-06 and 89-90 fit. Feb 2006 went cold when Feb 1990 was warm, but they were both warm January's. I do think there is more -AO tendency at 90N this Winter that neither of those analogs had. Will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves going into mid-January. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Maybe I've asked this before...but given this I'm even more surprised surprised at your call for 18" in the contest thread. I mean my layman eyes saw that as a bit bullish for a nina, but what do I know? Lol

Pretty simple thoughts based on 2 things that my intuition keeps bringing up. 1) I expected blocking to be on the friendly vs hostile side and 2) we're over due for a decent coastal that gets everyone. Not a giant storm as they are pretty rare.  Just a decent coastal that has a pretty uniform 1"+ of qpf and drops 8-12" across all 3 airports.  

I also don't think this nina is all that strong nor will it influence the winter door to door. Both of my snowfalls had a southern connection to precip already. Northern stream action is the bulk of our snowfalls and storm chances in every enso phase. Jan 2016 came onshore in the pac nw. The main shortwave was northern stream. But it tapped the southern stream when it mattered and went nuts. People get too hung up on northern stream being anti snow. It's only anti snow when the gulf or Southern stream is closed for business. So far this year, gulf moisture tap has been decent. I don't see why that won't continue at times. 

 

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS went from .3 to .5 from 00z of snow!

If this trend continues, by Christmas the EPS will have 512” forecast!!

[WEATHER53]

39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z GEFS is a CONUS blowtorch through the end, hr384. At that point we still have a +300dm Aleutian ridge and +EPO. It will take some time to detox them both in the best case scenario. 

This pattern surprises me a little, before Dec we had 21/29 months of +PNA since 2023 (CPC), and since the 23-24 El Nino ended, we still had 12/20 months of +PNA in negative ENSO. Now all of a sudden we have a Strong La Nina pattern from the N. pacific to the continental US. 

I guess Fall AAM is important, as that is the difference between this year and last year - this year we had a -AAM Fall, last year it was more positive

2nd year -PDO's, when the PDO doesn't work year 1 (+PNA last Winter in deep -PDO), correlates at 1.24x normal year 2.. It's deep negative this year so that could have been another sign. 

Alphabets say warm and analogs say  not and what is undetermined is what will happen 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Alphabets say warm and analogs say  not and what is undetermined is what will happen 

What's your question? 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What's your question? 

It's called drivel.

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

 

Judah so smart. Although I'm not sure why I should care so much what's going on at 10 mb when the AO is trending slightly negative at this point on the same model.

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I talked to Mother Nature and it appears she's gonna wait for me to come back from FL on the 2nd.   Sorry guys.  But I did negotiate for a huge storm next month, so there's that.

I'm in Florida until the 3rd.  Can we extend one day... you could probably use a day to recover anyways right? 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm in Florida until the 3rd.  Can we extend one day... you could probably use a day to recover anyways right? 

I'll allow it

[Weather Will]

WB latest EURO weeklies bring normal temps by week ending Jan. 10.  Rest of month is below normal.

[Benjamn3]

Are we back? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

16 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Are we back? 

Until 18z

[Benjamn3]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Until 18z

We are so back. 

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

We are so back. 

where did we go?

[bncho]

At the end of each of their runs, the 0z GFS will drop a 946 tucked low that brings 72” of snow to the DMV while the 0z Euro drops 97 degree weather.

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

At the end of each of their runs, the 0z GFS will drop a 946 tucked low that brings 72” of snow to the DMV while the 0z Euro drops 97 degree weather.

I'll take option one please.

[Benjamn3]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

where did we go?

 

[Diesel BrokeHer]

On 12/17/2025 at 1:17 PM, 87storms said:

There’s a 100% chance of something and a 0% chance that anyone knows with 100% certainty.

You're killing me, Smalls! 

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I'll allow it

I am also in Sarasota from 27 December to 3 January, concurrence on my end.

[Paleocene]

Lol we are all leaving at the right time. Headed to the OBX between Xmas and new years. Hoping to hit 75

[stormy]

I am in the Bahamas for Dec. 18 - 30................................   This  tropical  touch is heavenly.............  Why couldn't we have 70 in D.C. for December 25?  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

24 minutes ago, Diesel BrokeHer said:

You're killing me, Smalls! 

Yeah that was the ultimate true statement...100% chance of weather and all models and every ensemble agrees on that!  Don't forget the known knowns and known unknowns too. 

You've probably figured out that this place can go from one extreme to another in almost no time!  I just await some opportunity for @stormtracker with GUYS, FOLKS, JAWS!!