December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS NAO is forecasted very negative around Christmas.

Thanks. How about the Gefs and Eps if you have them handy? 

[Weather Will]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks. How about the Gefs and Eps if you have them handy? 

WB 6Z GEFS and 0Z EPS NAO charts 

[Weather Will]

Brief dip in EPO next week and AO trending down too on WB 0Z EPS...

[MDphotog]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Snow miser and heat miser having a battle right over southern Md 

I'm trying to wrap my head around being at 32 - 34 in Hagerstown while Cumberland & Keyser WV is at almost 60 hahah.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS and 0Z EPS NAO charts 

 Wow nice they are both diving negative!!!!

[WxUSAF]

Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days. 

[adelphi_sky]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days. 

That ridge sounds tasty. Let's roast it. 

[poolz1]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days. 

Like you said, grasping a little here but the Euro and the GFS have the same ULL entering Cali and trying to make its way across under the ridge.  I actually thought the 6z GFS was going to do something with it but the ridge just gets bullied east and squashes it.

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Like you said, grasping a little here but the Euro and the GFS have the same ULL entering Cali and trying to make its way across under the ridge.  I actually thought the 6z GFS was going to do something with it but the ridge just gets bullied east and squashes it.

Hmm yeah there are similarities. Euro AI has that giant tropospheric PV in Canada provide just enough confluence without squashing it. GFS squashes it. High latitudes on euro AI otherwise look like trash at that time frame lol. Definitely a unicorn setup but not much else happening…

[Heisy]

Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days. 

Yeah that’s a split flow, we’ll see if it has legs as we get closer.




.

[winter_warlock]

10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Like you said, grasping a little here but the Euro and the GFS have the same ULL entering Cali and trying to make its way across under the ridge.  I actually thought the 6z GFS was going to do something with it but the ridge just gets bullied east and squashes it.

If we can get that trough to back up west a lil

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, MDphotog said:

I'm trying to wrap my head around being at 32 - 34 in Hagerstown while Cumberland & Keyser WV is at almost 60 hahah.

The Allegheny Front does weird things.

[Diesel BrokeHer]

Somebody talk to me about January and February... What are we seeing? Shorts or snow boots? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, Diesel BrokeHer said:

Somebody talk to me about January and February... What are we seeing? Shorts or snow boots? 

The entire ENSO thread is a tug of war between those extremes.

[VA Mad Man]

22 minutes ago, Diesel BrokeHer said:

Somebody talk to me about January and February... What are we seeing? Shorts or snow boots? 

We can ask the same question for Christmas, apparently.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, VA Mad Man said:

We can ask the same question for Christmas, apparently.

Interesting Christmas solution on GFS today.  certainly different and further south track of what appears to be a warm core clipper....I totally made that up...no such thing...  

[WxUSAF]

GGEM has some snow and mix for Xmas

[T. August]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Interesting Christmas solution on GFS today.  certainly different and further south track of what appears to be a warm core clipper....I totally made that up...no such thing...  

close to something I think. It’s been showing a storm on the 25th.

[87storms]

2 hours ago, Diesel BrokeHer said:

Somebody talk to me about January and February... What are we seeing? Shorts or snow boots? 

There’s a 100% chance of something and a 0% chance that anyone knows with 100% certainty.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM has some snow and mix for Xmas

[87storms]

15 hours ago, kristia said:

Yep, sometimes it’s been a reality also.  

I actually get the occasional blizzard dream and we are due. I might regret selling my jeep in a month or two.

[87storms]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Brief dip in EPO next week and AO trending down too on WB 0Z EPS...

We need blocking. These NS waves are cute for a day or two, but this area needs a region-wide snowstorm with overrunning moisture from the south on top of a slow moving, dense dome of arctic air blocked by a downstream traffic jam.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

We need blocking. These NS waves are cute for a day or two, but this area needs a region-wide snowstorm with overrunning moisture from the south on top of a slow moving, dense dome of arctic air blocked by a downstream traffic jam.

sir, this is a La Nina

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

sir, this is a La Nina

95-96 was a Niña

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

95-96 was a Niña

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

sir, this is a La Nina

Yep, h5 pattern seems to be trying for some light to moderate events for MA-NE. Maybe a 96-like big dog can happen, but extremely unlikely. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. 

ehh, 2016 was not luck. there was a very strong west-based -NAO that developed, which is a classic KU signal

[JenkinsJinkies]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe a 96-like big dog can happen, but extremely unlikely. 

I'm not expecting it but on the other hand we're closing in on 30 years so I wouldn't be shocked if this is the time the stars finally align.

[Steve25]

I usually ignore the nonsense hype machine that is Tony Pann, but his latest post has me intrigued about the AI GFS and Euro. What were they showing? 

[dailylurker]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ehh, 2016 was not luck. there was a very strong west-based -NAO that developed, which is a classic KU signal

I'm saying we can luck into that type of setup any random winter. It's like we have a bucket of climo stuff. That includes the biggest snows ever to hit the area. It also has the warmest day ever reported. It all in the bucket. Any given winter we randomly get tossed stuff from the bucket. I don't know. This cookie is kicking my ass today lol