December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

Scrolling down my past posts and found these gems:

On 11/6/2025 at 4:51 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Could you imagine if we got a legit Dec 5th event? Something like a regionwide 3" - 5" fluff storm? This place would crash from excitement.

On 11/6/2025 at 5:21 PM, Terpeast said:

That’s my baby son’s due date…

 

[CAPE]

Latest Natty Blend. At this range its a great tool to use for guidance.

[TSG]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

60s for Christmas Eve on the 12z GFS lol

A tradition unlike any other!

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, TSG said:

A tradition unlike any other!

I bet it won't play out like that...not this year.  70s I would believe however.  

[winter_warlock]

35 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I bet it won't play out like that...not this year.  70s I would believe however.  

 Ur definitely not a glass is half-full  kinda person lol

[poolz1]

The temp crash during the day Sunday on the euro is pretty impressive.  FDK is 32 at 4am and 18 at 1pm with a gusty NW wind.  

[stormy]

4 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

We are talking about an event that is less than 36 hours away in the medium/long-term thread.  And Sunday maybe missing north or south.  And about how the snow gods hate certain spots on the map, and reward everyone else but them with snow.  And how it might be warm for Christmas like it was in 1965, but not for long.

60 at Christmas is now closer to 35..................  What a thrill!!!!

[T. August]

If this Sat/Sun event pans out - we get pretty lucky with the timing of the onset. It’s honestly not that cold when precip starts (euro actually at 33° for the beltway). Cmc is rain. If this was during the day it might have been even tougher.

It’s never easy.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Scrolling down my past posts and found these gems:

 

Crazy how that came true a month out (albeit with smaller amounts)

[RevWarReenactor]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

If this Sat/Sun event pans out - we get pretty lucky with the timing of the onset. It’s honestly not that cold when precip starts (euro actually at 33° for the beltway). Cmc is rain. If this was during the day it might have been even tougher.

It’s never easy.

 Psuhoffman said something that stuck with me, we've always been right on the line with events that would go in our favor. Now we seem to be just on the wrong side of that line, instead of just on the right side. 

[adelphi_sky]

If this weekend pans out, I will be pretty satisfied. Usually we spend December talking about snow chances in Jan and Feb. Now it's like having multiple threats in Jan but in Dec. I like the trend so far. Always a chance to over perform.

 

[bncho]

If DCA gets 1.1" of snow or more in the next few days, it will be the snowiest December for them since Dec 2009... 16 years.

[T. August]

21 minutes ago, bncho said:

If DCA gets 1.1" of snow or more in the next few days, it will be the snowiest December for them since Dec 2009... 16 years.

What was 2013’s total? I thought that was 3-4”.

[bncho]

Just now, T. August said:

What was 2013’s total? I thought that was 3-4”.

December 2013 had a total of 1.3" at DCA.

[T. August]

Just now, bncho said:

December 2013 had a total of 1.3" at DCA.

Dang my bad.

On topic - I think the extrapolated NAM was gonna be pretty nice. 

[mitchnick]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2025121012&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

@TSSN+

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2025121012&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

@TSSN+

What am I looking at? lol 

[stormy]

There has been some talk about a torch leading up to Christmas.

The White Christmas fans would have loved Christmas 1969 in Augusta County.

I recorded 12 inches of snow with a high of 24 and low of 14. 

Lets do it....................................

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

What am I looking at? lol 

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

Ya that looks like the other models. Question is what does it do after that crosses the mountains. 

[NorthArlington101]

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

What am I looking at? lol 

That's the Composite Radar off Nam.

[soadforecasterx]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

What am I looking at? lol 

go to 18z nam for the composite. Right at 84 you see the explosion of snow in the east.

 

that link defaults to 12z

 

[Ruin]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya that looks like the other models. Question is what does it do after that crosses the mountains. 

Im getting tired of the mountains always breaking up snow storms but rain storms cross them fine 

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

What am I looking at? lol 

He’s trying to steal all of that for yall up north.  H5 looked good in that there was a little more ridging east off the coast vs 12z gfs.   

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

go to 18z nam for the composite. Right at 84 you see the explosion of snow in the east.

 

that link defaults to 12z

 

Thst makes sense ya I must have seen 12z and was like this shows nothing haha 

[wxdude64]

20 minutes ago, stormy said:

There has been some talk about a torch leading up to Christmas.

The White Christmas fans would have loved Christmas 1969 in Augusta County.

I recorded 12 inches of snow with a high of 24 and low of 14. 

Lets do it....................................

I was just a little 'ol fart in '69, but I DO remember it snowed. Looking at CO-OP's in the area 6-10 was common. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest Natty Blend. At this range its a great tool to use for guidance.

I have zero scientific reason for this statement, but this is going improve as we get closer and will over perform at game time.  2014-2015 style!

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

I was just a little 'ol fart in '69, but I DO remember it snowed. Looking at CO-OP's in the area 6-10 was common. 

Yep, a good ole heavy snow warning 

[SnowenOutThere]

18z Icon was somehow worse than 12z