December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

Nice consensus at 12z. Now just needs to hold for 90 hours.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro is nice...we just sneak in, but I am always nervous being towards the southern end of modeled snow. 

[Physicsteve]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro AI is consistent with the idea of coastal development on Sunday. Definitely the solution PHL-BOS is rooting for. Don’t know how much snow for our area. Probably 1-3”ish?

The precision is certainly high going back days. As a forum interloper, I hope the accuracy is as well. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Nice consensus at 12z. Now just needs to hold for 90 hours.

Hrm...small coastal idea going? But that transfer at our latitude makes me a bit nervous...

[yoda]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice consensus at 12z. Now just needs to hold for 90 hours.

So we kind of want Friday to suck for a better Sunday?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, yoda said:

So we kind of want Friday to suck for a better Sunday?

Looks that way! As that has trended weakee Sundayb has looked better. That's why we need to book the heck out of the Friday clipper thread 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice consensus at 12z. Now just needs to hold for 90 hours.

If this holds to HR 60, I nominate @WxUSAF to make the thread.

[SnowenOutThere]

Weatherbell's snowfall maps are being slow right now but I think the 12z Euro should make people happier based on the precip totals

12z

6z

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hrm...small coastal idea going? But that transfer at our latitude makes me a bit nervous...

Not sure if it’s the coastal per se or just good dynamics (jet entrance region and frontogenesis). They’re all linked of course.

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

So we kind of want Friday to suck for a better Sunday?

Maybe. Seems like Sunday is the stronger wave.

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If this holds to HR 60, I nominate @WxUSAF to make the thread.

@SnowenOutTherehas the hot hand. I did the December 2nd rain thread 

[WxUSAF]

Going to assume 20-30:1 ratios based on my last snowfall 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Going to assume 20-30:1 ratios based on my last snowfall 

Low end warning event for everyone north of DC.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Weatherbell's snowfall maps are being slow right now but I think the 12z Euro should make people happier based on the precip totals

12z

6z

Pretty much held qpf wise here not bad. .28” should produce 3-4”. Now will we get that here idk but here’s hoping. 

[Paleocene]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Weatherbell's snowfall maps are being slow right now but I think the 12z Euro should make people happier based on the precip totals

12z

6z

Sign me up for 0.3 of frozen 

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure if it’s the coastal per se or just good dynamics (jet entrance region and frontogenesis). They’re all linked of course.

Maybe. Seems like Sunday is the stronger wave.

@SnowenOutTherehas the hot hand. I did the December 2nd rain thread 

This one is a little different than the previous waves we have tracked this year  with the PV lobe, some phasing, etc.  Small adjustments in the orientation and sharpness can change the on surface outcome (for better or worse).  Lets dig that thing as far west as possible.

[87storms]

This storm is important for the well-being of Northern MD inhabitants.  Precip output gives redeveloping off the coast vibes, but enough to keep interested.

[stormtracker]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice consensus at 12z. Now just needs to hold for 90 hours.

What I'm noticing is that they all have some sort of enhanced banding on the way out...just placement is off....which obviously is critical for us.

[Ji]

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Weatherbell's snowfall maps are being slow right now but I think the 12z Euro should make people happier based on the precip totals

12z

6z

weatherbell sucks. Never reliable

[mitchnick]

Looks like the Euro wants to keep a true torch at bay thru at least 300hrs. Don't know beyond that yet.

[SnowenOutThere]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure if it’s the coastal per se or just good dynamics (jet entrance region and frontogenesis). They’re all linked of course.

Maybe. Seems like Sunday is the stronger wave.

@SnowenOutTherehas the hot hand. I did the December 2nd rain thread 

Definitely interesting with how the precip seems to be driven almost entirely from dynamics without real surface low pressure support. No idea if that means things will go well or not though. If only we managed to get a combined Friday-Sunday phased storm though. 

Also I've had the hot hand but for Cville South events so not sure you want me to be the guy in charge of this one. Besides, I can't offer too much analysis as I have a final Thursday morning and then a 10 page paper (I haven't started) due Friday midnight.  

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@SnowenOutTherehas the hot hand. I did the December 2nd rain thread 

No! If he starts it'll go straight to Cville...

Edit: Ninja'd by the perpetrator himself 

[LP08]

EPS looking a little better on the limited maps I can see on Pivotal.  Further south mean of the LP off the coast and better 6hr qpf panels.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No! If he starts it'll go straight to Cville...

Edit: Ninja'd by the perpetrator himself 

How starting the thread is looking to me right now:

[bncho]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No! If he starts it'll go straight to Cville...

Edit: Ninja'd by the perpetrator himself 

I vote myself, since I'm a narcissist who wants my backyard to get THE MOST snow.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

I vote myself, since I'm a narcissist who wants my backyard to get THE MOST snow.

I believe the term is snowissist

[JenkinsJinkies]

56 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nice for dc/balt, the shaft for Mitch, psu and me 

 

[CAPE]

Still liking late Saturday into Sunday. 1-3 type deal might be more like 2-5 if all our stars align. Hopefully its a stripe of precip right through the heart of the region so we all get in on it.

 

[bncho]

12z GEFS vs 12z EPS, take your pick.

 

[Chris78]

39 minutes ago, 87storms said:

This storm is important for the well-being of Northern MD inhabitants.  Precip output gives redeveloping off the coast vibes, but enough to keep interested.

We seem to get screwed in most scenarios out our way

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z GEFS vs 12z EPS, take your pick.

 

Pretty similar. Nice to see at this point.

[LP08]

Don't hate this look and its a bump up from 6z