December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[H2O]

I got $20 that temps on Xmas will NOT be what a model two weeks before says it will be. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Uh, well it Fs us both pretty badly, but other people cash in

Evergreen quote for this subforum.

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

With potentially another Xmas torch staring us in the face, I decided to make a plot to see if it’s been as real as it feels or has been for years. So this plot is BWI above normal and much above normal (>=10F) occurrences from 2005-2024. Thicker lines are the year by year counts for each calendar day and thin lines are smoothed by 7 days. Short answer is yes…and the week after Xmas before new years has been the most torch prone.

Funnily enough, the last time we had a really cold xmas was in dec 2022. Torchapalooza afterward. So if there is going to be a torch, I’ll take one before prime climo. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Funnily enough, the last time we had a really cold xmas was in dec 2022. Torchapalooza afterward. So if there is going to be a torch, I’ll take one before prime climo. 

Yeah, I think that was the coldest Xmas of the 20 year period and it was the worst snowfall year ever for MBY. 

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Funnily enough, the last time we had a really cold xmas was in dec 2022. Torchapalooza afterward. So if there is going to be a torch, I’ll take one before prime climo. 

IIRC... after the deep freeze... it really never got cold again.

[stormtracker]

GFS decent for Sunday...I-95 jack DC to Balt

[dailylurker]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS decent for Sunday...I-95 jack DC to Balt

Maps? I'm waiting on slow ass tropical tidbits.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, Interstate said:

IIRC... after the deep freeze... it really never got cold again.

It was my first winter back in the area since 2016, and that jan blizzard was still fresh in mind when I was telling my wife what to expect from the winters here. Maybe I jinxed it 

[stormtracker]

Second thought, it's a little more impressive than I realized earlier.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Maps? I'm waiting on slow ass tropical tidbits.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Second thought, it's a little more impressive than I realized earlier.

Such a narrow jack zone. Weird depiction. But it's not inconsistent with other models and itself. Idk

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Maps? I'm waiting on slow ass tropical tidbits.

Use pivotalweather.com it's much faster 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Such a narrow jack zone. Weird depiction. But it's not inconsistent with other models and itself. Idk

Yeah, def not gonna play out like that.  It's good enough that we all should be interested

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS decent for Sunday...I-95 jack DC to Balt

Super isolated on gfs like a 25 mile band of snow up 95 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

D.C. chase

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Super isolated on gfs like a 25 mile band of snow up 95 

Looks like a deathband during a KU as it pivots out of town, not a snowstorm on it's own

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Super isolated on gfs like a 25 mile band of snow up 95 

We both know that's going to 100% happen.   Wrap it up!  We won!! 

Better luck next time dude. 

[bncho]

You just wake up to puking snow, lol

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Such a narrow jack zone. Weird depiction. But it's not inconsistent with other models and itself. Idk

 

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Super isolated on gfs like a 25 mile band of snow up 95 

Something like that is showing up in the euro too. Tiny coastal enhancement? Need a 20-30mi north shift though.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

We both know that's going to 100% happen.   Wrap it up!  We won!! 

Better luck next time dude. 

Seeing how things been the last 2 events it could for sure 

[Shad]

these totals tend to get juicier as we approach the event.....could be  3-4 hours of heavy snow for someone Sunday morning.

[T. August]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Super isolated on gfs like a 25 mile band of snow up 95 

Really frustrating - I wish it was more expansive. The only good thing is it looks pretty potent. Whoever gets lucky might see 3-5”.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Seeing how things been the last 2 events it could for sure 

There is no chance it's going to happen like that.  You could miss, sure...but there's not going to be a 25 mile wide jack from DC to Baltimore.   I'd be nothing or a smoothed out solution with us all getting like an inch or two.

[Scraff]

I’m not buying anything for Sunday until the CRAS comes on board. 

[TSSN+]

CMC is a miss north for basically PA/MD line south but did jump significantly south from 0z 

[LP08]

For future runs, watch the sharpness and how far west the SW can trend.  Good signs the last couple of runs.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

For future runs, watch the sharpness and how far west the SW can trend.  Good signs the last couple of runs.

Good analysis. We want to see heights rise a bit to the east so we can get some moisture and lift up over our area. Hoping to see this trend continue a bit further. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good analysis. We want to see heights rise a bit to the east so we can get some moisture and lift up over our area. Hoping to see this trend continue a bit further. 

Nice right entrance region of the jet max over us also around 6-12z on the gfs. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

UK looks like the GFS for Sunday

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

UK looks like the GFS for Sunday

DC is a snow town?