December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Demeter]

1 hour ago, FBXwinterfan said:

I moved from by the Richmond airport to Spotsylvania County in 2017 thinking I would see a lot more snow. Since then have seen a lot of these types of southern sliders. It gets frustrating. 

I can tell you right now, not much more here in Spotsy than Richmond  the last few years we have gotten some good ones over the northern areas…but typically, we are on the southern edge of the snow line. Richmond usually sees way less than I received.  It’s just been a strange few years  

 

 

 

 

[LP08]

Gfs has next Sunday again.  And guess what, it’s a southern Va hit lol

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gfs has next Sunday again.  And guess what, it’s a southern Va hit lol

I'm telling ya this is gonna be a Miller Too Late.. I'd almost bet a 6-leg parlay on it, lol This is a nina and these kind of setups snow around us but not on us. Not even gonna give this one the time of day (unless it's Saturday night and it looks like it'll buck the trend). I'll prepare the last words of Beethoven: "Pity, pity...too late!"

[Ephesians2]

22 minutes ago, Demeter said:

I can tell you right now, not much more here in Spotsy than Richmond  the last few years we have gotten some good ones over the northern areas…but typically, we are on the southern edge of the snow line. Richmond usually sees way less than I received.  It’s just been a strange few years  

 

 

 

 

The last few years have just been very paltry everywhere, so there's more random variation with one or two storms versus six or seven. Lower numbers = higher standard deviation. Like in 2011- 2012, Central Virginia got a random storm that dropped 4-8" and ended up with more snow than DC/Baltimore. That was the only snow that winter. If we're moving back into a more favorable climo, we will go back to a more normal regional distribution. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I've been in MontCo for 32 years and have family in southern MD.  I think the winter climo has changed where being in the "northern and western suburbs" is no longer an advantage.  Marginal, mixed events are further north and we miss the southern sliders/coastal scrapers, leaving a snowfall minima in the center of our region. 

I tend to agree.  The 12/2 system was another flag.  It was literally in the 20s the evening that precip was set to arrive lol.  I also think this area is more prone to drought now especially if northern stream systems are going to be further north.  At a certain point, it becomes less of a trend and more of a question of whether this is the new base state.  Time will tell.  It's early in the season, but so far it's a lot of the same.

[SnowenOutThere]

33 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gfs has next Sunday again.  And guess what, it’s a southern Va hit lol

No one does northern crew ragebait quite like the prime time GFS

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I've been in MontCo for 32 years and have family in southern MD.  I think the winter climo has changed where being in the "northern and western suburbs" is no longer an advantage.  Marginal, mixed events are further north and we miss the southern sliders/coastal scrapers, leaving a snowfall minima in the center of our region. 

This. I don't know why it changed--it's not just one storm but we're talking about at least 5-6 since 2018-19 where this has happened. Calling it bad luck I find unsatisfactory because of what my eyes see on radar during each storm I'm seeing the exact same wall at Central MD in the exact same spot for all of those events. How do you see that and not suspect it's something else?

At least the Nina explanation makes a little more sense...but Jan 2019 was a Nino and it still happened, lol

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. I don't know why it changed--it's not just one storm but we're talking about at least 5-6 since 2018-19 where this has happened. Calling it bad luck I find unsatisfactory because of what my eyes see on radar during each storm I'm seeing the exact same wall at Central MD in the exact same spot for all of those events. How do you see that and not suspect it's something else?

At least the Nina explanation makes a little more sense...but Jan 2019 was a Nino and it still happened, lol

Warm/wet, cold/dry was definitely what occurred with the last two systems imby, that's for sure.

[winter_warlock]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

No one does northern crew ragebait quite like the prime time GFS

It will change in a week lol

[baltosquid]

23 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

It will change in a week lol

Congrats Atlanta!

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

It will change in a week lol

Probably, lol But that kind of outcome is typical in a nina.

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Probably, lol But that kind of outcome is typical in a nina.

True!!!

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Euro shows a snow chance on Friday night.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z Euro shows a snow chance on Friday night.

A...clipper??

[LeesburgWx]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z Euro shows a snow chance on Friday night.

We Back?

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO for late week

[Wxdavis5784]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A...clipper??

Ya… ya know, typical for Nina? FFS…

[nw baltimore wx]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO for late week

The Dolphin Storm. Or maybe Platypus.

[mitchnick]

6z Euro has it, but a bit weaker.

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro has it, but a bit weaker.

Sounds about right. 

[Ji]

6z Euro has it, but a bit weaker.

Cold pattern breaks down by Christmas…and never comes back aka 2022-23?

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

Cold pattern breaks down by Christmas…and never comes back aka 2022-23?

That's the risk of being cold eary...pattern has to breakdown at some point 

[Ji]

That's the risk of being cold eary...pattern has to breakdown at some point 

Well we can’t keep going like this so maybe you have to change the pattern and risk losing cold and dry for a chance at a bigger storm knowing the it could also be a warm rain

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Well we can’t keep going like this so maybe you have to change the pattern and risk losing cold and dry for a chance at a bigger storm knowing the it could also be a warm rain

At the very least the fact that it can still snow in Richmond and Carolina should be encouraging that we aren't toast yet for upcoming winters.

[anotherman]

32 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

At the very least the fact that it can still snow in Richmond and Carolina should be encouraging that we aren't toast yet for upcoming winters.

Yeah, it's a real comforting feeling.... 

[aldie 22]

25 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Yeah, it's a real comforting feeling.... 

Except on Christmas...according to the GFS bring out the jorts and wife beater

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Cold pattern breaks down by Christmas…and never comes back aka 2022-23?

Wayyyyy too early to say that my friend. But I'll take a breakdown for a while as we desperately need a reshuffle. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The Dolphin Storm. Or maybe Platypus.

Looks like the RR storm. 

[Weather Will]

Both the GEFS and EPS extended show a trend toward more normal temps as we head into the end of December into January, but not a torch.

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wayyyyy too early to say that my friend. But I'll take a breakdown for a while as we desperately need a reshuffle. 

Just one run of course, but 6z gefs never gets the ridge to roll over all the way to the east coast. And now has another well defined trough swing through around the 18-19th. EPS has that trough around the 18th also, but not as deep and focused a little to our west. If the WPO ridge shifts west and weakens, I would make sense for us to go more zonal, but that can keeps getting kicked.