December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Demeter]

1 hour ago, FBXwinterfan said:

I moved from by the Richmond airport to Spotsylvania County in 2017 thinking I would see a lot more snow. Since then have seen a lot of these types of southern sliders. It gets frustrating. 

I can tell you right now, not much more here in Spotsy than Richmond  the last few years we have gotten some good ones over the northern areas…but typically, we are on the southern edge of the snow line. Richmond usually sees way less than I received.  It’s just been a strange few years  

 

 

 

 

[LP08]

Gfs has next Sunday again.  And guess what, it’s a southern Va hit lol

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gfs has next Sunday again.  And guess what, it’s a southern Va hit lol

I'm telling ya this is gonna be a Miller Too Late.. I'd almost bet a 6-leg parlay on it, lol This is a nina and these kind of setups snow around us but not on us. Not even gonna give this one the time of day (unless it's Saturday night and it looks like it'll buck the trend). I'll prepare the last words of Beethoven: "Pity, pity...too late!"

[Ephesians2]

22 minutes ago, Demeter said:

I can tell you right now, not much more here in Spotsy than Richmond  the last few years we have gotten some good ones over the northern areas…but typically, we are on the southern edge of the snow line. Richmond usually sees way less than I received.  It’s just been a strange few years  

 

 

 

 

The last few years have just been very paltry everywhere, so there's more random variation with one or two storms versus six or seven. Lower numbers = higher standard deviation. Like in 2011- 2012, Central Virginia got a random storm that dropped 4-8" and ended up with more snow than DC/Baltimore. That was the only snow that winter. If we're moving back into a more favorable climo, we will go back to a more normal regional distribution. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I've been in MontCo for 32 years and have family in southern MD.  I think the winter climo has changed where being in the "northern and western suburbs" is no longer an advantage.  Marginal, mixed events are further north and we miss the southern sliders/coastal scrapers, leaving a snowfall minima in the center of our region. 

I tend to agree.  The 12/2 system was another flag.  It was literally in the 20s the evening that precip was set to arrive lol.  I also think this area is more prone to drought now especially if northern stream systems are going to be further north.  At a certain point, it becomes less of a trend and more of a question of whether this is the new base state.  Time will tell.  It's early in the season, but so far it's a lot of the same.

[SnowenOutThere]

33 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gfs has next Sunday again.  And guess what, it’s a southern Va hit lol

No one does northern crew ragebait quite like the prime time GFS