December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

 

That Valentine's Day 2015 mini-event is STILL one of my favorites!  About 2" total fell within a couple of hours as the Arctic front blew through the area in the early evening, attended by strong winds and rapidly falling temperatures.  And yeah, I remember @Bob Chill talking about watching the event occur while grilling in his garage!!  That event ushered in an amazing period of winter weather that went through early March!

Here's a shot soon after the snow ended...

That was a fun little event, and my yard jacked with 3".

[Eskimo Joe]

38 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs like the cold 

 

More cold about to dump into CONUS for christmas?

17 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I was very hesitant about this winter until I saw this! Big blowup of the warm blob!

Helping that EPO/WPO domain. 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Would that be considered a Norlun for Monday? Or completely different setup.. 

It has some inverted trough characteristics. It looks "weird" because of blocking mostly. The shortwave is decent but the sledgehammer above it is pounding on top so it can't really get organized with a broader precip shield. Hammer and nail effect. Backside of the shortwave is pretty sharp but the front is hammered flat

 

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Inverted trough?

Yup, but pretty uncommon to see it actually verify at our latitude. 

[Buddy1987]

Just now, CAPE said:

Yup, but pretty uncommon to see it actually verify at our latitude. 

Agreed.. I’m used to seeing those mainly in the northeast when I still lived in CT. This one could surprise a few folks around mine and Chills area. 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Maybe of these arctic fronts can give us something like that dynamic snow squall setup from Valentine's Day 2015. That was a heck of an evening! 

I know we all want to chase legit snowstorms - but those mini dynamic ones can be 1) Very impactful and 2) Fun to nowcast in real time. 

That was a crazy intense squall 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Upper air pattern is pretty potent with the neg nao breaking down but no sign of a big storm trigger yet. Just looking at the indices makes you think an Archambault type event is I the cards but the northern stream is so busy that it's running interference on itself lol. Something compact but potent n the NS could pop imho. Blocking is quite strong over the next 5 days then things unwind for a bit. Interesting and complex period on tap. Not really a setup that "locks into" anything so it would be a mistake to marry anything in the mid/long ranges

 

 

 

Looking at the bottom image (and from talking to @brooklynwx99 earlier) we need to have that low of Alaska to retrograde off the coast more (which it has been doing in more recent runs) in order to pump up the PNA and get more amplitude for our shortwave(s). Would be fun to have a rather strong storm pop into existence within a couple days of the event which isn't impossible given how the right pieces are all there. 

[SnowenOutThere]

BTW @NorthArlington101 Euro has the Monday storm with a significant jump northward to get snow flurries close to the DC metro area. The 12z CMC also had a more consolidated precap field as well FWIW. 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chillgonna be above climo by December 15 while Mt @psuhoffmanand Mt @mappywait on their first inch 

Seems to be the new normal given the last few winters. I’ll see snow this week when I head up to Syracuse for a few days for work

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Looking at the bottom image (and from talking to @brooklynwx99 earlier) we need to have that low of Alaska to retrograde off the coast more (which it has been doing in more recent runs) in order to pump up the PNA and get more amplitude for our shortwave(s). Would be fun to have a rather strong storm pop into existence within a couple days of the event which isn't impossible given how the right pieces are all there. 

I mentioned this yesterday in a post. The orientation of that WPO block is somewhat flattening the PNA ridge. The other primary feature of influence is the southward displaced TPV lobe.

[Ji]

Euro has our 12-13 event….not
Big but not nothing

[stormy]

I like the Euro AIFS ens.  Tuesday was wacky but it performed very well on Friday.

I can handle 1.5" and be happy.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, LP08 said:

That is a pretty wild H5 at hr 180 on the gfs lol

Slow down a bit and it'll churn up to include Baltimore.

[brooklynwx99]

nice to see the ridge out west trend taller. helps the trough location and amplitude 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

nice to see the ridge out west trend taller. helps the trough location and amplitude 

Insane ridge over Alaska. Going to keep dumping cold air on us.

[winter_warlock]

This is LWX's way of saying. " We have no clue" lol...

 

However, the

system that may impact the region towards the end of the week may

have more cold air to work with. Won`t delve into details at this

time, as it is a very complex upper-level pattern with lots of

moving parts in the northern and southern branches of the jet

stream. It is important to note that this period could also remain

entirely dry as well, so nothing is set in stone yet at this point.

Stay tuned to the latest forecast for more details as we get a

little closer and have the pieces in place over the CONUS

 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Insane ridge over Alaska. Going to keep dumping cold air on us.

Gefs says yes, Eps has a ridge rolling in at 348hrs. Don't fall in love with either possibility, but Eps has been warm in the LR this fall/early winter fwiw.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

This is LWX's way of saying. " We have no clue" lol...

 

However, the

system that may impact the region towards the end of the week may

have more cold air to work with. Won`t delve into details at this

time, as it is a very complex upper-level pattern with lots of

moving parts in the northern and southern branches of the jet

stream. It is important to note that this period could also remain

entirely dry as well, so nothing is set in stone yet at this point.

Stay tuned to the latest forecast for more details as we get a

little closer and have the pieces in place over the CONUS

 

One of the funnier discussions I’ve seen. Don’t blame that at all though!

[frd]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nice to see the ridge out west trend taller. helps the trough location and amplitude 

GEFS also trending to a better, taller + PNA, hope it happens ! 

[winter_warlock]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Insane ridge over Alaska. Going to keep dumping cold air on us.

Yesss the more cold we have coming in ...a good snowstorm is bound to meet the cold!

[Steve25]

Euro has quite the rollercoaster on Thursday the 18th. Waking up to temperatures in the 50s with showers/thunderstorms. Dropping to freezing by the evening, ending with a burst of snow/ice, then dipping down into the teens by Friday morning. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

BTW @NorthArlington101 Euro has the Monday storm with a significant jump northward to get snow flurries close to the DC metro area. The 12z CMC also had a more consolidated precap field as well FWIW. 

Long range HRRR is intriguing too. If I was you I’d be thinking about a 0.5” refresher course down there. See if we can get any more juice or a northern push in the next 36 hours.