December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Nah, but it's a nice lil event for the area.  Wetter than 6z, SW central va gets a good hit.  Lil 100mb low off the Carolina coast but slipping just south and east of us.  Wouldn't take much more to get us a decent event up here.

Very close, at least we have some pre Christmas potential, that is more than we can say a lot of years.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Nah, but it's a nice lil event for the area.  Wetter than 6z, SW central va gets a good hit.  Lil 100mb low off the Carolina coast but slipping just south and east of us.  Wouldn't take much more to get us a decent event up here.

Damn 100mb low I didn't know day after tomorrow was a work of nonfiction! That said this is a great look imo for within a week! 

[NorthArlington101]

Dec 2018-esque

[WxUSAF]

If the snow stopped at the Potomac like 12z gfs shows, I’d get pretty ragey…

[Ephesians2]

CMC made a substantial shift north with the Friday event. It still isn't close enough for anyone on this forum, but it's only about 100 miles away from a hit versus 400 miles

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Very close, at least we have some pre Christmas potential, that is more than we can say a lot of years.

Yup.  Shitty snow maps on SV shows the good stuff hits a wall almost at the potomac 

 

 

[JakkelWx]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If the snow stopped at the Potomac like 12z gfs shows, I’d get pretty ragey…

It just hits a fooking wall just like Dec 2018!

edit: 250 mb jet dynamics look poor, that's probably why.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Dec 2018-esque

Charlottesville is locked in with this track 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If the snow stopped at the Potomac like 12z gfs shows, I’d get pretty ragey…

Yeah, Shitty SV maps show the same thing.  Hits a wall

[TSSN+]

H5 looks pretty nice. We may see some crazy runs coming up if it keeps showing something similar.

 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Charlottesville is locked in with this track 

if there is a Dec. 2018 redux, I'll be in town!

[wawarriors4]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Dec 2018-esque

One of my favorite storms. Need Dec 2018 about 50-75 further North and it's a win. Something going to be goldilocks here soon....

December 8-9 would match 2018 to the day too.....

[Bob Chill]

 

A little neg ao/nao goes a long way. Closed ridge over GL and closed low over NF is a pretty classic way to get something to work in the MA/SE. Especially in my hood.

[WxUSAF]

GGEM closer to something early next week as well. 

[stormy]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Dec 2018-esque

That's a nice bump from 3.7 to 8.8".

[yoda]

Friday evening "event" still there on the 12z UKIE... more for BR eastward into S MD and C VA tbh though 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Friday evening "event" still there on the 12z UKIE 

Not bad and close to a decent bit better. Think I'd rather be @Bob Chillright now but think we're still in the game.

[SnowenOutThere]

Since I'm procrastinating studying I'll have an updated analysis on this Friday out soon. Interestingly, it looks like the main way the NAM scores is through shortwave one instead of shortwave three as it was shown a day ago.

[Solution Man]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Not bad and close to a decent bit better. Think I'd rather be @Bob Chillright now but think we're still in the game.

I’m liking this trend, we may have something here

[yoda]

UKIE not buying the 12z GFS idea for Monday though

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not bad and close to a decent bit better. Think I'd rather be @Bob Chillright now but think we're still in the game.

You know these maps aren't real they still invoke annoyance remembering the nina snowholes and such.

[mitchnick]

Just remember that the 12z Gfs showed this snowfall that was supposed to fall today after 7am. South of Harrisburg was pretty much a bust and York got 95%+ rain according to a York poster vs the 3.6" the Gfs forecasted. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Just remember that the 12z Gfs showed this snowfall that was supposed to fall today after 7am. South of Harrisburg was pretty much a bust and York got 95%+ rain according to a York poster vs the 3.6" the Gfs forecasted. 

Dang...that must've been a heck of a warm nose, I'm guessing?

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just remember that the 12z Gfs showed this snowfall that was supposed to fall today after 7am. South of Harrisburg was pretty much a bust and York got 95%+ rain according to a York poster vs the 3.6" the Gfs forecasted. 

On the NYC forum they found runs showing rain all the way up to Kingston.

[bncho]

DC snowhole lol

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just remember that the 12z Gfs showed this snowfall that was supposed to fall today after 7am. South of Harrisburg was pretty much a bust and York got 95%+ rain according to a York poster vs the 3.6" the Gfs forecasted. 

Spot on for my area

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

DC snowhole lol

They need to make a spin-off called "That's So Nina"

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

They need to make a spin-off called "That's So Nina"

Followed by a spin off of the spin off called "Kuchera In The House"

[WxUSAF]

Euro AI is a slight bump north for Friday. Dusting-2” for metro area. 3” for @Bob Chill, 2-3” for RIC.

[SnowenOutThere]

I think the base Euro should be a bit norther