December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[SouthCoastMA]

44°

I hear the dripping down the gutters. It looked nice for a few days at least - about 3" left

[Kitz Craver]

I get the long range isn’t looking so hot, but let’s try and focus on the Christmas period, no?

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's 35.0 here at WXW2. This is the first time in December that SLK has been above freezing. Absolutely nuts. 

MVL here is up to 37F and warmest of the month.

-10.1 in December through this point and today might threaten to be the first day to average above normal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

I get the long range isn’t looking so hot, but let’s try and focus on the Christmas period, no?

Absolutely, let's hope we get something to focus on other than visions of snowless winters dancing in our heads.

[Fozz]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup...strong "suck" signal in terms of snowfall. We have two weeks to do something about it before I become convinced of an 8th consecutive dud.

2020-21 was actually the one good year, although winter ended way too early after mid-Feb.

But aside from that, every other year after 2017-18 ranged from 41-54”.

I wouldn’t complain too much if this winter ends up in that range, but man I want a MECS every year.

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The models yesterday didn't really have this thin layer of moisture at 850.

you'd think they'd update it though upton has the same thing here even as of 11am.   

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I get the long range isn’t looking so hot, but let’s try and focus on the Christmas period, no?

Long range looks fine. Much better than yesterday 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

2020-21 was actually the one good year, although winter ended way too early after mid-Feb.

But aside from that, every other year after 2017-18 ranged from 41-54”.

I wouldn’t complain too much if this winter ends up in that range, but man I want a MECS every year.

I was still about 10" below average that year....that is the season that saw a slew of SOP deals pork me, but def. the "best" since 2018.

[Patrick-02540]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, but I think this stretch is definitely more attributable to the velocities coming out of the Pacific as a byproduct of that west Pac warmth, which is exacerbating the influence of the ongoing Pacific cold phase on snowfall. I think the 1980s were more a byproduct of a strongly +NAO multidecadal cycle and some bad luck. There is def. some bad luck in this stretch, too....but it's more than that.

At least we don't live in the 1930s. 

Decadal Average Annual Snowfall for Hartford, CT

• 1920–1929: ~31.0 inches
• 1930–1939: ~14.8 inches
• 1940–1949: ~35.4 inches
• 1950–1959: ~40.9 inches
• 1960–1969: ~60.5 inches
• 1970–1979: ~46.2 inches
• 1980–1989: ~39.2 inches
• 1990–1999: ~39.5 inches
• 2000–2009: ~45.2 inches
• 2010–2019: ~51.8 inches
• 2020–2024: ~27.3 inches

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said:

 

At least we don't live in the 1930s. 

Decadal Average Annual Snowfall for Hartford, CT

• 1920–1929: ~31.0 inches
• 1930–1939: ~14.8 inches
• 1940–1949: ~35.4 inches
• 1950–1959: ~40.9 inches
• 1960–1969: ~60.5 inches
• 1970–1979: ~46.2 inches
• 1980–1989: ~39.2 inches
• 1990–1999: ~39.5 inches
• 2000–2009: ~45.2 inches
• 2010–2019: ~51.8 inches
• 2020–2024: ~27.3 inches

Jesus...

Man, you guys did fine in the 80s.

[radarman]

QPF ramping down on the GFS.  Will a 6" partially glacial pack withstand a 48hr warmup and maybe 3/4" rain?  My guess is yeah, and even if not a coating to measurable seems kind of likely before christmas anyway.

[Kitz Craver]

Little OT, but I got my ass kicked by that virus that’s going around. Finally get  back to work today and I have a full sidewall blowout on the highway. Been a fun past week.

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus...

Man, you guys did fine in the 80s.

I only remember the 80s for 3" of snow followed by sleet an slop.  Maybe it happened often, though.  

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The models yesterday didn't really have this thin layer of moisture at 850.

Looping vis suggests this is transient and you open up out there over the next hour.   We'll see.   May not be "sunny" today, but a compromise

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Little OT, but I got my ass kicked by that virus that’s going around. Finally get  back to work today and I have a full sidewall blowout on the highway. Been a fun past week.

My 4 yr old and now 11 month old have it.

[Fozz]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was still about 10" below average that year....that is the season that saw a slew of SOP deals pork me, but def. the "best" since 2018.

That early Feb storm was a screw job for a lot of people, myself included when I was in RI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Fozz said:

That early Feb storm was a screw job for a lot of people, myself included when I was in RI.

That was one my one great event...I had 16", but my mom in Wilmington had like 20".

[dendrite]

Up to 32.7°

No real signs of dripping yet.

[Fozz]

6 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

 

At least we don't live in the 1930s. 

Decadal Average Annual Snowfall for Hartford, CT

• 1920–1929: ~31.0 inches
• 1930–1939: ~14.8 inches
• 1940–1949: ~35.4 inches
• 1950–1959: ~40.9 inches
• 1960–1969: ~60.5 inches
• 1970–1979: ~46.2 inches
• 1980–1989: ~39.2 inches
• 1990–1999: ~39.5 inches
• 2000–2009: ~45.2 inches
• 2010–2019: ~51.8 inches
• 2020–2024: ~27.3 inches

Hartford averaged 37” in the 1930s

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My 4 yr old and now 11 month old have it.

It doesn’t last too long but it’s pretty intense discomfort 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus...

Man, you guys did fine in the 80s.

No they didn’t that well. That’s like 8-10” below climo. Where they got skunked a bit was the 1990s compared to ORH and BOS. 

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Hartford averaged 37” in the 1930s

 

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Hartford averaged 37” in the 1930s

Yes, I stand corrected.  There was missing info in my data set post-depression from 1929 through 1935.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No they didn’t that well. That’s like 8-10” below climo. Where they got skunked a bit was the 1990s compared to ORH and BOS. 

Okay, that is what threw me off...I saw hot it compared to the 90s, which I perceive as a good decade.

[WxWatcher007]

Still a little Christmas Eve snow on the GFS

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

 

Yes, I stand corrected.  There was missing info in my data set post-depression from 1929 through 1935.  

So 2020s is a new low so far...

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ok yeah. When you burn a month in La Niña early on, usually a bad thing. There were places close to the coast in E MA that got skunked in Nov ‘71 but still recovered. Obviously rare though…Feb ‘72 was a huge month despite La Niña. Usually February is the weakest La Niña month. 

You've hinted pretty well at the two primary reasons I've suspect since September this may be an early loaded winter, followed by some struggles.  

I thought at the time an early spring, too.    I sort of sarcastically mused, 'flower February' ...  

Just expand a little on the climate aspect ( CC not included).  This type of low amplitude La Nina autumn/winter in the past preceded some spectacularly warm springs.  Gotta dust off the antiquity, but 1976 and 2012 ...etc..  They're there, if one goes and just cursory runs their finger down the ENSO history, they'll see the negative ENSO years, and then compare those to notably warm springs there's a pretty clear correlation there - no, not 1::1 ...work with me here.  It's there, and it's non-noise.  So, now add 20 years of accelerating CC.

Which unfortunately for those that have issues with this reality ... springs have begun expressing bigger heat relative to climate, and also all-time, with increasing frequency.  I mean, there have been heat-related deaths in lower China in Marches.  It's a matter of time before a February 2017 type ridge returns, here, and perhaps does so with greater duration. 

I just see as an idea here, that if we combine this latter aspect with the aforementioned climate inference farther above, we don't get a protracted winter sense of it.  Also, the near history ( last decade's worth) of winters have become all but dependably similarly behaving - in principle. Despite whatever background/preceding ENSO this or that was observed, leitmotif: some early form of early blocking and snow supporting synoptics ( sometimes as early as Octobers for the first time in my life), then, the circulation gets blown open by midriff seasonal velocity saturation.  I'm sorry, since September, see and sense that lurking again ... One thing recent La Nina have not performed very well, is that early climate signaled warmth, however.   It may be Russian Roulette with that if/when water finds its level.      

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still a little Christmas Eve snow on the GFS

Pretty meager.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You've hinted pretty well at the two primary reasons I've suspect since September this may be an early loaded winter, followed by some struggles.  

I thought at the time an early spring, too.    I sort of sarcastically mused, 'flower February' ...  The combination of is both the climate idea you intimate re La Nina, but then adding a CC element.    Ha, you I'm not shy to do so. 

Just expand a little on the climate aspect ( CC not included).  This type of low amplitude La Nina autumn/winter in the past preceded some spectacularly warm springs.  Gotta dust off the antiquity, but 1976 and 2012 ...etc..  There there, if one goes and just cursory runs their finger down the ENSO history, they'll see the negative ENSO years, and then compare those to notably warm springs there's a pretty clear correlation there - no, not 1::1 ...work with me here.  It's there, and it's non-noise.  So, now add 20 years of accelerating CC.

Which unfortunately for those that have issues with this reality ... springs have begun expressing bigger heat relative to climate, and also all-time, with increasing frequency.  I mean, there have been heat-related deaths in lower China in Marches.  It's a matter of time before a February 2017 type ridge returns, here, and perhaps and does so with greater duration. 

I just see as an idea here, that if we combine this latter aspect with the aforementioned climate inference farther above, we don't get a protracted winter sense of it.  Also, the near history ( last decade's worth) of winters have become all but dependably similarly behaving - in principle. Despite whatever background/preceding ENSO this or that was observed, leitmotif: some early form of early blocking and snow supporting synoptics ( sometimes as early as Octobers for the first time in my life), then, the circulation gets blown open by midriff seasonal velocity saturation.  I'm sorry, since September, see and sense that lurking again ... One thing recent La Nina have not performed very well, is that early climate signaled warmth, however.   It may be Russian Roulette with that if/when water finds its level.      

If I get a March 2018 block to follow, then sign me up-

[HoarfrostHubb]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My 4 yr old and now 11 month old have it.

I'm surrounded by middle school kids hacking sneezing coughing and whatnot.

The gift that keeps on giving.  I had something last week that gave me crazy vertigo... that was a new one

 

[weathafella]

I don’t think the statistics on Nina Decembers mean anything especially with a totally unscientific sample size.  Also, let’s say everyone is below normal through December and a whopper dumps 1-2 feet starting New Year’s Day afternoon-but the arbitrary cutoff says ratter.   Silly.  What’s perhaps more relevant about the statistic is that low snow in the first half of winter is often a good harbinger regardless of the enso state.  Of course the notable exception is 2014-15 when BOS had single digits for the season in mid January and finished with their all timer at 110.6”