December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

Nam a torching 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

18z HRRR FRAM est. makes me a little nervous. Bordering on something a little more than a nuisance. Even these maps seem to be way more overdone often than not though.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah all guidance keeps lowering temps Monday . We take 

[Not me in VT]

I've been lurking in here for 15 years now, Other than Mount Tolland is this ice something to be worried about in SV? .  These model outputs seem to be always overdone or is this time different? Stand by power business planning purposes, Thanks for the help all, Happy holidays. 

[TheSnowman]

Can we talk some December 31-January 1 Potential Please?  This next one is Totally worthless to us in the South.  

[VivaManchVegas]

30 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

18z HRRR FRAM est. makes me a little nervous. Bordering on something a little more than a nuisance. Even these maps seem to be way more overdone often than not though.

GYX mentioned that models have a hard time handling CAD this morning.  All eyes on how quickly the clouds move in or do not Sunday night.  Cold snow pack and how much radiation cooling takes place before the clouds move in would seem to be a key item.   We are supposed to hit 38 degrees here tomorrow.  Eye on that as well. 

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, Not me in VT said:

I've been lurking in here for 15 years now, Other than Mount Tolland is this ice something to be worried about in SV? .  These model outputs seem to be always overdone or is this time different? Stand by power business planning purposes, Thanks for the help all, Happy holidays. 

Not much ice here on this . Will be above 32 early Monday . Hopefully stays in 30’s all day for pack . CNE NNE should see a significant amount though 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not much ice here on this . Will be above 32 early Monday . Hopefully stays in 30’s all day for pack . CNE NNE should see a significant amount though 

You will torch I think. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You will torch I think. 

Everything keeps it pretty limited . Under 45 and perhaps under 40

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything keeps it pretty limited . Under 45 and perhaps under 40

You should hit 45 for sure I think. Question is duration. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You should hit 45 for sure I think. Question is duration. 

HRRR Hi Res Reggie say nah .. we’ll see.

Other years I’d be inclined to agree but literally everything has verified colder this year . This is perfect setup for them to overestimate warming with such antecedent cold, fresh snowpack to coasts ..BN SST’s. We’ll see  

[ineedsnow]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR Hi Res Reggie say nah .. we’ll see.

Other years I’d be inclined to agree but literally everything has verified colder this year . This is perfect setup for them to overestimate warming with such antecedent cold, fresh snowpack to coasts ..BN SST’s. We’ll see  

12z model guidance may not have captured this fresh snowcover from
last night. Therefore, later model runs may trend colder with the
current shallow cold airmass over SNE.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I agree with both of you. I think Gene may get more prolonged icing than most given his elevation up at Newfound, but this won’t be anything historical. I doubt there’s much accretion after early/mid Monday morning so 1/3-1/2” QPF won’t be a big deal outage/damage wise…although the Monday AM commute will probably be a disaster.

More and more mesos printing out over 1 inch of qpf in sub freezing temps in your area.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z model guidance may not have captured this fresh snowcover from
last night. Therefore, later model runs may trend colder with the
current shallow cold airmass over SNE.

Looks like they captured it to me. 

[jbenedet]

Zzzzzzz

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, TheSnowman said:

Can we talk some December 31-January 1 Potential Please?  This next one is Totally worthless to us in the South.  

Not much there.  

[Damage In Tolland]

NYD can be a 1-3” type deal 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

NYD can be a 1-3” type deal 

2nd

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2nd

There’s a few shots Wed— next weekend. Might only be one .. or possibly two different light events . Fast flow 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... 

 -- system movement too fast.  6 hours and the QPF's done reporting

-- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. 

-- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation

-- not enough QPF 

This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ...aka advisory should do it..   

I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.  

   

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a few shots Wed— next weekend. Might only be one .. or possibly two different light events . Fast flow 

GFS has 4 to 6 here the 2nd

[WxWatcher007]

Going to be my first icer here. Elevation may put me in a warm spot given the temperature aloft.