December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i dont know what this means

He probably meant "significant"...

[brooklynwx99]

this is pretty comical. NYE is now a legit timeframe to watch with that amplifying trough

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i dont know what this means

Sorry about that, and I'm at work and tried doing a quick post. I just fixed it. Didn't know if it showed us getting several inches, but I wasn't sure if we should trust what we're seeing at this point

[Damage In Tolland]

I really hope people aren’t  giving up on Friday night for a few inches minimum . Plenty of potential changes to come 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Replace silent with solid…

oh yeah, yes several.

add EPS to that too. 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He probably meant "significant"...

I fixed my post. Sometimes it's a mistake when you're at work to try to make a post in between work stuff.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Much better season than 93-94 for me...that was one of my favorite winters.

‘92-93 went from a top 5 season to pretty mediocre quite quickly once you got into central CT and southwest. It was actually below normal for snowfall once you got to NYC. Pretty amazing season though for BOS-ORH corridor and northward into your hood. 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is pretty comical. NYE is now a legit timeframe to watch with that amplifying trough

I feel like we have seen a handful of pretty H5 animations that haven’t produced however, Fri/Sat could potentially be one of them

[tavwtby]

I can't remember what year, 92/93 maybe, we had a solid sleet storm with inches of it, I remember driving around like a fool with like 3-4" of sleet, crazy time. But it was early 90s, I thought 93/94 was the really cold year, no? perhaps it was that year.

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is pretty comical. NYE is now a legit timeframe to watch with that amplifying trough

It probably is a result of smoothing and averaging, but that would be something pretty damn good to work with...if we got the TPV to dig exactly as shown. There really is no way to see each member, is there? The OP doesn't dig as aggressively and we would probably need to see the OP more in line of the ENS to really make this potentially noteworthy. I'd be curious to know where each member stands 

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I feel like we have seen a handful of pretty H5 animations that haven’t produced however, Fri/Sat could potentially be one of them

We'll see about the Friday/Saturday deal. The one Brooklyn is posting about is New Year's Day. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

I can't remember what year, 92/93 maybe, we had a solid sleet storm with inches of it, I remember driving around like a fool with like 3-4" of sleet, crazy time. But it was early 90s, I thought 93/94 was the really cold year, no? perhaps it was that year.

We actually had a storm back in I think 2020 .. December I believe.  We had at least a few inches of sleet during the day and later that night I remember we had thunder and lightning and everything turned to Snow.... By the next day when it stopped in the early afternoon, we had about 16 or so inches. 

[weathafella]

34 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

We actually had a storm back in I think 2020 .. December I believe.  We had at least a few inches of sleet during the day and later that night I remember we had thunder and lightning and everything turned to Snow.... By the next day when it stopped in the early afternoon, we had about 16 or so inches. 

2019.  My 73rd birthday event.

[dryslot]

GYX bumping totals up a bit here, Low is 5”, Expected 11”, High end 13”.

Oops wrong thread

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

GYX bumping totals up a bit here, Low is 5”, Expected 11”, High end 13”.

 

Good luck out there. Hope you get smoked. 

[TalcottWx]

Is Friday real? 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

Is Friday real? 

Few inches for you maybe 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Is Friday real? 

Friday is a real day, yes 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It probably is a result of smoothing and averaging, but that would be something pretty damn good to work with...if we got the TPV to dig exactly as shown. There really is no way to see each member, is there? The OP doesn't dig as aggressively and we would probably need to see the OP more in line of the ENS to really make this potentially noteworthy. I'd be curious to know where each member stands 

that isn’t even the animation of the run though, that’s the trend for the same valid time. it’s so drastic it looks like the same run 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that isn’t even the animation of the run though, that’s the trend for the same valid time. it’s so drastic it looks like the same run 

its been great seeing positive trends moving closer to the window of interest versus negative trends. Something is going to work in our favor over the next 10-14 days.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

GYX bumping totals up a bit here, Low is 5”, Expected 11”, High end 13”.

Oops wrong thread

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Can already tell on the icon that the block is pressing more this run even through 57 hours.

Expect a south solution from 12z, which was the only guidance giving the area appreciable snow 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

About 75 miles SW of 12z. One more shift like that and it’s gone for most, outside of maybe SW CT

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

About 75 miles SW of 12z. One more shift like that and it’s gone for most, outside of maybe SW CT

I mean, it had no choice really.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean, it had no choice really.

Yeah northern outlier. If it’s gonna come back, we need the big boy models to start making a move at 00z

[radarman]

Models have been atrocious this month

Seriously

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

Models have been atrocious this month

Seriously

The medium range guidance for post-Christmas is some of the worst I’ve seen in a while. I mean, some of these runs were giving us pretty damned mild weather for several days in a row just a few cycles ago and it’s completely flipped. They weren’t able to handle the blocking in the Atlantic with much skill. 

[radarman]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The medium range guidance for post-Christmas is some of the worst I’ve seen in a while. I mean, some of these runs were giving us pretty damned mild weather for several days in a row just a few cycles ago and it’s completely flipped. They weren’t able to handle the blocking in the Atlantic with much skill. 

Agree.  And we do understand that blocking has been a thorn in their side forever, but the euro completely spit the bit on the 12/2 storm.  The GFS did pretty badly on the 12/14 system.  They all basically failed inside day 3 for today.  And then you have what you mentioned above.

They frickin nailed 12/19 though, that's for sure

[UnitedWx]

5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Not even close bro.  But This is season is it. The last 3 have been gearing up for this.  Last year was closer, but Now we have it.   When everybody around you snows, but you don’t in SNE…that’s the 80’s.   Ahhh….visions of my teens growing up in CT. 

Same here. High school from 1984 through 88. We had a total of like 6 snow days all 4 years. The only great surprise was in, it believe 1987. Was supposed to have my wisdom teeth pulled and we had a surprise bomb with about 10 inches of paste. Seemed like 3 feet! Just down the hill at BDL there was nothing 

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…80’s were the worst. This has a ways to go, so the ones ready to hang yourselves, get ready for more punishment. 

True, we never know when 92 (or was it 91? ) will come through the door again, but it will