December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Cyclone-68]

I stand corrected…Good catch 

[kdxken]

Beautiful day to take down a tree ( aren't they all?). Bluebird skies...

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Someone is going to get a good smack from this Friday Saturday deal, unfortunately, it’s looking like that’s going to be south of New England. Jersey gets clobbered on some of these runs 

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Beautiful day to take down a tree ( aren't they all?). Bluebird skies...

 

You do that by remote? I didn't see you there.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS continues to be mostly a whiff for 12/26-27 but it’s been creeping back north. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS continues to be mostly a whiff for 12/26-27 but it’s been creeping back north. 

I thought this run was worse than 12z to be honest 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I thought this run was worse than 12z to be honest 

It actually eroded the northern edge but the heavy stuff bumped a little north…which makes sense. It’s basically tightening the gradient. Prob a sharp cutoff in this system. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS continues to be mostly a whiff for 12/26-27 but it’s been creeping back north. 

Still think the Euro leads the way here. I highly doubt this dives into the Mid-Atlantic as a snow event and whiffs us. How often does that even happen?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Still think the Euro leads the way here. I highly doubt this dives into the Mid-Atlantic as a snow event and whiffs us. How often does that even happen?

When doesn’t it with winter storms? This is like old days GFS that was always south and you could predict exactly what and when it would come back north, That’s in fact how we started the north trend term that the mid Atlantic still hates us for .

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

When doesn’t it with winter storms? This is like old days GFS that was always south and you could predict exactly what and when it would come back north, That’s in fact how we started the north trend term that the mid Atlantic still hates us for .

I don't think the Euro is king anymore, so I take it with the same grain of salt as the GFS, etc. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Crazy the Friday storm is in NAM range for 6z run tonight . Glad the gfs is the southern outlier . But 12 EPS does look kind of gfs like .. let’s get this north to include more of New England 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still think the Euro leads the way here. I highly doubt this dives into the Mid-Atlantic as a snow event and whiffs us. How often does that even happen?

Yeah it doesn’t happen too often but this is admittedly a weird setup. We want to see ensembles tighten before really getting a good handle. The mean still has decent precip up into NNE so there’s a lot to spread.   

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It actually eroded the northern edge but the heavy stuff bumped a little north…which makes sense. It’s basically tightening the gradient. Prob a sharp cutoff in this system. 

Yeah, being on the outside looking in right now is kind of scary. If this goes more south at all, we’re cooked 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still think the Euro leads the way here. I highly doubt this dives into the Mid-Atlantic as a snow event and whiffs us. How often does that even happen?

Well, after flopping around for days, the models have suddenly shown remarkable consistency now that the consensus is largely a whiff for New England 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it doesn’t happen too often but this is admittedly a weird setup. We want to see ensembles tighten before really getting a good handle. The mean still has decent precip up into NNE so there’s a lot to spread.   

I mentioned this to Ray this morning. The angle blows for most of New England. So the storm could literally be close by and miss most of us 

[Damage In Tolland]

Scooter so embarrassed he hasn’t posted all day . Just refreshing the board each set of runs and couldn’t control himself from weenieing my last post 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NYC having 10x as much snow as Boston on the year after Saturday? Holiday cheer for all 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Basically two camps on the GEFS, good bit and whiff. Not much in between 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

You do that by remote? I didn't see you there.

Windy day. I loosened it just enough so I could get a good shot when the wind picked up.

[SouthCoastMA]

I think this will slowly inch north. possible the models are exaggerating the strength of blocking around Iceland and 50/50 low. You wouldnt need much compensation for this to hit New England

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I think this will slowly inch north. possible the models are exaggerating the strength of blocking around Iceland and 50/50 low. You wouldnt need much compensation for this to hit New England

We need that. Otherwise it will be congrats Philly and DC and I can promise the vibes will go straight to hell then  

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I think this will slowly inch north. possible the models are exaggerating the strength of blocking around Iceland and 50/50 low. You wouldnt need much compensation for this to hit New England

There are still a significant number of ensemble members on both GEFS and EPS that hammer southern New England. Lot of spread. Honestly, anything is kind of gravy from that system as 2 days ago it looked like a rainstorm except way up in far NNE. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are still a significant number of ensemble members on both GEFS and EPS that hammer southern New England. Lot of spread. Honestly, anything is kind of gravy from that system as 2 days ago it looked like a rainstorm except way up in far NNE. 

And looking beyond, it’s pretty amusing to see clippers return from their multi-year hiatus. It looks like we might remain on the good side of this razor’s edge pattern. For now at least.