December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

with respect to that surface hp around the 22nd/23rd, there isn't much to suggest we're gonna run a big moisture plume into it right now and even a 6z gfs front ender doesn't have a lot of support at this time (including from 12z).  But maybe a deamplifying wave of some kind could be in play on the front side of the ridge going up in the center of the CONUS.  Normally that's not gonna excite most people, but could be the difference in a white Christmas for some.

If things unfolded as advertised, I wouldn't be surprised if we had a decent chance of throwing more moisture our way given the southwesterly flow around the stout high across the southeast. However, I think what we would really want to see is a deamplifying wave like you said...or even a strong Arctic cold front plowing southeast across the Plains which would help tap into the Gulf. What would be excellent if there was a connecting the the equatorial PAC...we would be golden I think there 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I’m not going to argue anymore, but is 100% the truth. There would be posts talking about how it fits the pattern, etc. I mean, let’s just be honest about what’s really happening. People don’t want to discuss the potential negative outcomes, it’s as simple as that.

It's basically trying will things to happen which look bad. Trying to find ways in which it will work. 99% of forecast models could show a rain storm at D6 and one model showing potential for all snow...all the focus would be on how that one model "could verify" over what the actual situation is 

I mean...I'm not complaining about this, that's why we're all here and it's the purpose of the board...it's a discussion board lol. But it does I think yield in blending the line of fantasy versus reality at times. 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's basically trying will things to happen which look bad. Trying to find ways in which it will work. 99% of forecast models could show a rain storm at D6 and one model showing potential for all snow...all the focus would be on how that one model "could verify" over what the actual situation is 

I mean...I'm not complaining about this, that's why we're all here and it's the purpose of the board...it's a discussion board lol. But it does I think yield in blending the line of fantasy versus reality at times. 

Just about everyone does olympic level mental gymnastics during the winter from southeast Canada to Georgia. People are overly pessimistic just as they are overly positive depending on where they sit and how desperate they are for snow. Like you said, that's the purpose of the board, and it's what makes it incredibly fun and incredibly frustrating all season long. Most people strike enough of a balance to fit in, but we have our positive and negative outliers--God love (most of) 'em, no doubt about it. 

My perspective has always been--just have fun. If you're negative, have fun with it. If you're a #faithinflakes kind of person, make it entertaining not obsessive. If you don't believe in fun, be educational at least. 

Life is far too short and serious to be miserable here. 

[WxWatcher007]

Back to the wx, there’s a legit signal for some type of storm right around that 23-26 time frame. That’s all you can ask for this far out. I really do think there’s enough of a cold press in place from SE Canada to crack the door open for some type of wintry event. We don’t need an ideal pattern to cash in. Just a window of opportunity. 

Aside from that I still think the overall central US ridging still looks west enough to prevent a full on torch Dec 24-25 throughout NE.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just about everyone does olympic level mental gymnastics during the winter from southeast Canada to Georgia. People are overly pessimistic just as they are overly positive depending on where they sit and how desperate they are for snow. Like you said, that's the purpose of the board, and it's what makes it incredibly fun and incredibly frustrating all season long. Most people strike enough of a balance to fit in, but we have our positive and negative outliers--God love (most of) 'em, no doubt about it. 

My perspective has always been--just have fun. If you're negative, have fun with it. If you're a #faithinflakes kind of person, make it entertaining not obsessive. If you don't believe in fun, be educational at least. 

Life is far too short and serious to be miserable here. 

Well stated, especially the having fun part. I know there are some who don't want to read the nonsense or care for it but some of the troll stuff when the weather is boring is downright hilarious. 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just about everyone does olympic level mental gymnastics during the winter from southeast Canada to Georgia. People are overly pessimistic just as they are overly positive depending on where they sit and how desperate they are for snow. Like you said, that's the purpose of the board, and it's what makes it incredibly fun and incredibly frustrating all season long. Most people strike enough of a balance to fit in, but we have our positive and negative outliers--God love (most of) 'em, no doubt about it. 

My perspective has always been--just have fun. If you're negative, have fun with it. If you're a #faithinflakes kind of person, make it entertaining not obsessive. If you don't believe in fun, be educational at least. 

Life is far too short and serious to be miserable here. 

The problem is the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic drive each other crazy.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The problem is the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic drive each other crazy.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

The one thing I think everyone does best though is when there is a legit threat or when an event is ongoing...the discussion is generally pretty great and top notch. the occasional joke posts here and there but everyone puts on their game cap when needed. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The problem is the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic drive each other crazy.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Don’t get the pessimism…

still a chance for Christmas Eve miracle on AIFS and Euro .. and Euro with a Boxing Day biggie for CNE

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t see the pessimism…

still a chance for Christmas Eve miracle on AIFS and Euro .. and Euro with a Boxing Day biggie for CNE

Yeah there really is no reason to panic or anything yet. It's already been established the surface may not be totally reflective of what is going on in the mid-levels. What we can gather from that period, however, is that it could be active. How those pieces fall into place...way too early to worry about that. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah there really is no reason to panic or anything yet. It's already been established the surface may not be totally reflective of what is going on in the mid-levels. What we can gather from that period, however, is that it could be active. How those pieces fall into place...way too early to worry about that. 

luckily we don't live at 500mb and there can easily be a CAD setup around Christmas with the NW-SE oriented TPV providing confluence

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The problem is the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic drive each other crazy.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

Weenies up the middle (hiney)?

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The problem is the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic drive each other crazy.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

This is the internet in a nutshell with all topics.

Everything is wrong all the time crowd vs everything is great all the time crowd.  Most of us fall on a spectrum of that but there are clear tendencies.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

luckily we don't live at 500mb and there can easily be a CAD setup around Christmas with the NW-SE oriented TPV providing confluence

This illustrates beautifully. While using OP at this time range isn't particularly great, I do think there is some value in assessing how the OP is handing the overall evolution of the pattern during that time frame. In doing this, you can see there has been a tendency to somewhat compress the heights a bit and there is also some pretty strong vort maxes modeled...these would further help to flatten that flow out a bit. That look on the ensembles screams some sort of storm potential. I think that period through the first week of January is shaping up to be active. 

[Ginx snewx]

41 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I’m not going to argue anymore, but is 100% the truth. There would be posts talking about how it fits the pattern, etc. I mean, let’s just be honest about what’s really happening. People don’t want to discuss the potential negative outcomes, it’s as simple as that.

No that's not it. First for example the Euro crushes us. Anyone believe it here.  Not talking about the other world.  As soon as you can you get on a negative roll. Maybe that's who you like to be but honestly Brett posting the next ten days is crap based on OP GFS is silly.  Same as close the shades til after Christmas. We all who love winter want 2015 to walk in the door but reality strikes.  Just saying this, scientifically this pattern could be shit or it could explode. Tons of cold air source but...At any rate it will be interesting.

[Chrisrotary12]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The sequence this December has summed up my climo since 2018....this exact sequence. 12/2 nailed areas JUST to my north....like legit 3-5 miles, then the mid atlantic gets a couple, followed a closer graze that nails southern portions of the region. Now we flip back to a NNE pattern that will focus north of me. Just relentlessly frustrating, aside from maybe 3 days....1/7/2024, 2/1/2021 and 12/6?/2019. I get something from both extremes, so I avoid the cellar seasons that SOP has gotten, but have an unmatched streak of overall futility (7 consecutive seasons of greater than 10" below average and counting).

Going to try to ask a legitimate question without getting yelled at… is it possible you live in a local snow hole? 

Like… yes you have longitude compared to rest of SNE but your latitude negates it? 

Perhaps you’re just far enough east that you will dance with the mix line in any event without a parked HP.

For SWFEs, you’re just far enough northeast that it takes forever for it to start precipitating and the warm tongue is always closer than it seems. 

For legit coastals with a parked HP, the coastal front parks well to your east, but you’re in a subsidence zone between CF and next band. 

I don’t have evidence to support these other than I’ve started picking up and making mental note of them over the years for the Merrimack Valley. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Going to try to ask a legitimate question without getting yelled at… is it possible you live in a local snow hole? 
Like… yes you have longitude compared to rest of SNE but your latitude negates it? 
Perhaps you’re just far enough east that you will dance with the mix line in any event without a parked HP.
For SWFEs, you’re just far enough northeast that it takes forever for it to start precipitating and the warm tongue is always closer than it seems. 
For legit coastals with a parked HP, the coastal front parks well to your east, but you’re in a subsidence zone between CF and next band. 
I don’t have evidence to support these other than I’ve started picking up and noticing them over the years for the Merrimack Valley. 

My thoughts exactly and I talked with Ray about this very subject. 

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is pretty active after the 22nd or so... there will be chances but it's shut the blinds for the next week

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is pretty active after the 22nd or so... there will be chances but it's shut the blinds for the next week

Really no chances until maybe 12/23. Gotta hope we get a shortwave to run into the confluence which seems to be pretty stout on the ensembles…so there’s a good chance we’re at least seasonably cold during that period if not colder. But the question is whether we can get a system to fly around that ridge in the center of the country in time. 

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Back to the wx, there’s a legit signal for some type of storm right around that 23-26 time frame. That’s all you can ask for this far out. I really do think there’s enough of a cold press in place from SE Canada to crack the door open for some type of wintry event. We don’t need an ideal pattern to cash in. Just a window of opportunity. 

Aside from that I still think the overall central US ridging still looks west enough to prevent a full on torch Dec 24-25 throughout NE.

This is perfect. That’s all we need. well put and very reasonable.  
 

Nobody is in a fantasy world…we know the caveats, it doesn’t look great(the pattern), nothing wrong with stating that, but there is potential.  And basing your negativity on Op runs at 8-11 days lead is just stupid/foolish. 
 

But ridiculous posts like, shut the shades, and this sucks, winter is over, we are boned(moaning like a little bi*ch), who cares if its early, it blows, I got 2” but was hoping for 3-4” so now it all sucks,  etc etc…is downright ridiculous.   That’s the point. 

[NH8550]

12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Going to try to ask a legitimate question without getting yelled at… is it possible you live in a local snow hole? 

...

I don’t have evidence to support these other than I’ve started picking up and making mental note of them over the years for the Merrimack Valley. 

Interested in the responses to this. I'm ~20 miles north of him and do better in some storms, but definitely feel the overall tenor of things seemingly cashing in north / south / west. 

Signed - a long time lurker driven out create an account over frustration from 'subsidence'

[HoarfrostHubb]

I know it’s a long way off, but I don’t see a grinch system next week.   
The one this week seems highly likely but should be rather quick.  After that I don’t feel another cutter hits before Dec 25

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This is perfect. That’s all we need. well put and very reasonable.  
 

Nobody is in a fantasy world…we know the caveats, it doesn’t look great(the pattern), nothing wrong with stating that, but there is potential.  And basing your negativity on Op runs at 8-11 days lead is just stupid/foolish. 
 

But ridiculous posts like, shut the shades, and this sucks, winter is over, we are boned(moaning like a little bi*ch), who cares if its early, it blows, I got 2” but was hoping for 3-4” so now it all sucks,  etc etc…is downright ridiculous.   That’s the point. 

But we can close the shades for a week or so. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But we can close the shades for a week or so. 

Sure…but That was never the point to any of this, and I think you know that.
 

the Mild rain at the end of the week..that’s all good…let’s wash up the road and get the chemicals off. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sure…but That was never the point to any of this, and I think you know that.
 

the Mild rain at the end of the week..that’s all good…let’s wash up the road and get the chemicals off. 

I get it, not good to be all negative all the time, but people hate when negative things are posted. That’s not even a debate. 

[Typhoon Tip]

So I guess the gripe is centered around losing the white Xmas  ?

as far as the 'scalar' value of the Euro run ( anyway ) I thought that was entertaining enough.  Xmas itself on that run has a wall of snow with probable impact visibility and road deterioration issues as a strong WAA burst throws a quick 3" followed by some IP/zr...   It cuts off, then there's a Schwegler wrap for some mood stuff lingering into Boxing morning.    It's a winter storm man.   Then there's a NJ modeler for 3-5" three days later...   

It's D10 so ... yeah, probably won't be there on the next cycle   lol.  but it's not exactly a winterless run

[SouthCoastMA]

A lot of it is hyperbole in good fun. Sure some of it is over the top but who cares. When a storm is imminent we will all unite, I think 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sure…but That was never the point to any of this, and I think you know that.
 

the Mild rain at the end of the week..that’s all good…let’s wash up the road and get the chemicals off. 

And rip down trees and lines 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get it, not good to be all negative all the time, but people hate when negative things are posted. That’s not even a debate. 

Well not me…it’s fine to say things/pattern don’t look good. Reality is fine…no wishcasting here.
 

But when it’s constant complaining non stop…due to an Op run that just the previous cycle showed something totally different, at 10 days lead, and saying the month blows, and winter is over, and it’s just the facts…no that’s not the facts…that’s complete bullshit.  As Steve said…he’ll find any tidbit to go full on atomic negative.  

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And rip down trees and lines 

Well that might be a slight exaggeration…but who knows right.