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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread


Torch Tiger
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59 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I miss the old days of little access to models, things were more of a surprise when they happened and less of a disappointment when they didn't. I mean, I know I am the same way, I might get 12 inches of snow, but feel empty because the models were showing 18....before I feel like I can't enjoy the fact that it is snowing most of the time because expectations take over. Sure I could just leave the board and stay away from the models 4 times per day, but it is an addiction with no help, lol

There was something special as a kid about waking up in the middle of the night to find the orange glare of the old street lights softened by unexpected heavy snow. Especially if it happened before a school day. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I posted that earlier. Was waiting to see if someone got my Robocop reference lol. 
 

Euro op was good for the cranberry bogs. At least it didn’t vanish. 

Lol, I thought that was a deep terminator reference I wasn’t aware of

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It really wouldn’t take much to amp this up a little more…just need that SPV to drop in behind the speeding shortwave a little earlier/deeper. 

Even the Euro aloft might argue for more QPF being wrung out a bit further inland...not an uncommon model bias for all guidance in keeping thew QPF too close to the low-level thermal gradient. It's why I think that run was pretty good for SE MA despite most QPF being centered over Cape/Islands. 

But yeah, that could get juicy pretty quickly if you displaced the PV lobe even 75-100 miles west. 

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58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You can’t stop her. You can only hope to contain her.

image.gif

Look Ahead to latter December & the Holiday Period

 "Given the active, seasonably cold pattern that is expected to ensue and last for at least half of the month, the probability for a White Christmas is above climatological levels, but it remains somewhat dubious for the coastal plane given a possible milder turn prior to the holidays. In fact, the proverbial "Grinch Storm", which occurred in both the 2007 and 2008 analogs, is a distinct possibility".
 
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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wonder how much the op run is influencing this. The last 3 GEFS runs for Xmas eve.

image.gif

When you have summer heat ridge heights near the winter solstice, I'm guessing it's hard to wash that out even with other ensemble members. 

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later.  Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

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8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later

 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When you have summer heat ridge heights near the winter solstice, I'm guessing it's hard to wash that out even with other ensemble members. 

No doubt.

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