December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

At least the 12z ED-209 looks better than 6z. 

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get the Mansfield stake to zero and melt all the snow mobile trails to Quebec.

You can’t stop her. You can only hope to contain her.

[Lava Rock]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z GFS is going to be fun for Christmas.

If you like 60s.

i'm expecting it. need to finish raking some leaves.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You can’t stop her. You can only hope to contain her.

that's fooking great!! 

[Hoth]

59 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I miss the old days of little access to models, things were more of a surprise when they happened and less of a disappointment when they didn't. I mean, I know I am the same way, I might get 12 inches of snow, but feel empty because the models were showing 18....before I feel like I can't enjoy the fact that it is snowing most of the time because expectations take over. Sure I could just leave the board and stay away from the models 4 times per day, but it is an addiction with no help, lol

There was something special as a kid about waking up in the middle of the night to find the orange glare of the old street lights softened by unexpected heavy snow. Especially if it happened before a school day. 

[ineedsnow]

Euro is meh for Sunday again

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro is meh for Sunday again

Actually a nice look for SE MA. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

In past years, everybody hung their hats on the hope that an SSW would materialize.. Well this year, we had one. And it did bring the PV and the cold.  but  the rest of the equation seems to be lacking so far.

It wasn't a full reversal.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually a nice look for SE MA. 

Looks fine to me...even around MA Pike 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian torpedos a low into Lake Ontario. lol. I’m ready to turn my Christmas tree into one. 

How many ways can we find to avoid plowable snow in Boston?

[CT Rain]

op skynet looks good. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

op skynet looks good. 

This will be verification

 

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This will be verification

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

op skynet looks good. 

Yeah I posted that earlier. Was waiting to see if someone got my Robocop reference lol. 
 

Euro op was good for the cranberry bogs. At least it didn’t vanish. 

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I posted that earlier. Was waiting to see if someone got my Robocop reference lol. 
 

Euro op was good for the cranberry bogs. At least it didn’t vanish. 

Lol, I thought that was a deep terminator reference I wasn’t aware of

[dendrite]

It really wouldn’t take much to amp this up a little more…just need that SPV to drop in behind the speeding shortwave a little earlier/deeper. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It really wouldn’t take much to amp this up a little more…just need that SPV to drop in behind the speeding shortwave a little earlier/deeper. 

Even the Euro aloft might argue for more QPF being wrung out a bit further inland...not an uncommon model bias for all guidance in keeping thew QPF too close to the low-level thermal gradient. It's why I think that run was pretty good for SE MA despite most QPF being centered over Cape/Islands. 

But yeah, that could get juicy pretty quickly if you displaced the PV lobe even 75-100 miles west. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

My Christmas postcard to Ray...it should arrive by Friday!

 

Yea, validation of a seasonal is a great post card, and a very appreciated gift.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, validation of a seasonal is a great post card, and a very appreciated gift.

Play your cards right and I may be able to get the Methuen DPW to sign the postcard!

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Holy shit.

Break out the golf clubs

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You can’t stop her. You can only hope to contain her.

Look Ahead to latter December & the Holiday Period

 "Given the active, seasonably cold pattern that is expected to ensue and last for at least half of the month, the probability for a White Christmas is above climatological levels, but it remains somewhat dubious for the coastal plane given a possible milder turn prior to the holidays. In fact, the proverbial "Grinch Storm", which occurred in both the 2007 and 2008 analogs, is a distinct possibility".

 

[dendrite]

I wonder how much the op run is influencing this. The last 3 GEFS runs for Xmas eve.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wonder how much the op run is influencing this. The last 3 GEFS runs for Xmas eve.

the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wonder how much the op run is influencing this. The last 3 GEFS runs for Xmas eve.

When you have summer heat ridge heights near the winter solstice, I'm guessing it's hard to wash that out even with other ensemble members. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later.  Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later

 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When you have summer heat ridge heights near the winter solstice, I'm guessing it's hard to wash that out even with other ensemble members. 

No doubt.

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, Hazey said:

12z Icon looks decent. Gfs lost system. Canadian drives s/w up into Maine. Tells me what I need to know. We stay the course.

I would weight the GFS at 90% and give the the other two each 5%

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

12z GFS is going to be fun for Christmas.

If you like 60s.

 

Seasons in seasons.

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Break out the golf clubs

Believe when you see it.  It’ll mute big time. That ain’t happening. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro is meh for Sunday again

Gotta stop saying these things with your BY in mind only. It looked pretty decent for a lot of us.