December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[MJO812]

[Spanks45]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yes, bad luck in the sense of the end result for us and precisely why the thinking of "well I'll take my odds with plenty of chances" is kind of pointless. Big deal if it happens once out of every 100 chances. Why does it even matter what guidance has in the 96-120 hr window...who cares if its showing a bit better with ridging in region x or that its a bit sharper with the lead shortwave, yada yada yada...the end result is generally 99% of the time always going to be the same and that is a reflection of the state and regime which will dictate the final outcome

It doesn't help that the past 4 years have been below to insanely below average, getting porked in every possible way. And here we are again finding new ways to miss snow, so definitely a lot of angst in SNE for sure. I understand why meteorologically we are missing out, but never realized that for an area that averages 45-50 inches per year that we have to get lucky, just to hit average. I always assumed that it was the other way around, 2014/15 was luck....hopefully we snap out of it soon and we end up running the table the rest of the year, but the hangover from the past 4 years is hanging on and will be tough to snap out of

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In my view, the 2"+ that I have is a bonus....I didn't expect anything yet. I bet most would feel the same had they not been focused on the southern mid atl.

We finally have a very cold pattern with multiple chances....but if they don't produce, the knives are out even fiercer.

This definitely proves it's all about the snow though....we've said it for years. 90% of the forum doesn't care if you are no longer in a torch regime or if you are -10 departures on the month if it isn't going to snow. 

[dryslot]

Snow is serious biness, Right now, I'm enjoying the balls cold weather while many do not,  But this really helps to maintain a pack when you get the ground to freeze up before getting the snow to insulate.

[Kitz Craver]

I feel like while the climo argument does ring true, it’s a kind of a coping mechanism. One can’t deny that for the past few seasons, probably more, we have been AN for December. Climo or not we have been solidly BN this month and it is snowing 100’s of miles to our south. Objectively that is a fail. And it’s not complaining or canceling winter. It’s just a clear analysis of where we stand right now while weighing our BN canvas 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We finally have a very cold pattern with multiple chances....but if they don't produce, the knives are out even fiercer.

This definitely proves it's all about the snow though....we've said it for years. 90% of the forum doesn't care if you are no longer in a torch regime or if you are -10 departures on the month if it isn't going to snow. 

I'm in that group.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm in that group.

I think most of us are, lol. Nobody complained during our warm/snowy winters...2012-13 or 2016-17. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think most of us are, lol. Nobody complained during our warm/snowy winters...2012-13 or 2016-17. 

It’s true, ultimately we are all hyper narcissists who only care about snow IOBY’s. That’s it, full stop.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We finally have a very cold pattern with multiple chances....but if they don't produce, the knives are out even fiercer.

This definitely proves it's all about the snow though....we've said it for years. 90% of the forum doesn't care if you are no longer in a torch regime or if you are -10 departures on the month if it isn't going to snow. 

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It doesn't help that the past 4 years have been below to insanely below average, getting porked in every possible way. And here we are again finding new ways to miss snow, so definitely a lot of angst in SNE for sure. I understand why meteorologically we are missing out, but never realized that for an area that averages 45-50 inches per year that we have to get lucky, just to hit average. I always assumed that it was the other way around, 2014/15 was luck....hopefully we snap out of it soon and we end up running the table the rest of the year, but the hangover from the past 4 years is hanging on and will be tough to snap out of

I get it...100% and believe me...I'm pissed off too. But there comes a point where expectations versus reality become blended and that's when expectations start becoming well...unrealistic. And this is where for the most part, some people are kind of doing it to themselves by getting suck into guidance which goes bonkers in the medium range and developing a sense as that is a possible expectation. And then marrying extended EPS charts because they show deep blues at H5 and correlating that to potential and expecting active times. It sucks...we're in a cycle in which it just sucks here but we will break out of it eventually...have some phenomenal years for a several year stretch and then revert back to this. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually after going through the last few winters...I would much rather than one shortwave every 10 days. 

There clearly is meteorological reasonings and physics involved as to why these fast flows with many shortwaves just don't pan out. I legit am starting to believe the mindset now of "rather having many shortwaves and hoping it pans out" is just a defensive mechanism to try and bring hope to something which just isn't there. 

 

That's the most important sentence. I don't think anyone would say this if fast flow led to numerous minor to moderate events over the last few years. We let the past cloud our judgement in the present. What makes us think that a slower pattern wouldn't lead us to the very same desolate road SNE has been on through the 2020s? Sure, maybe it would enhance the odds of phasing, but that doesn't mean it'd phase where we need it, and where we need it to can be very different depending on where you sit in this region.

We'd just be placing the meteorological risk of a fail in a different basket. Winter tracking is brutal because all of us have our biases and defense mechanisms whether they are external or internal. 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We finally have a very cold pattern with multiple chances....but if they don't produce, the knives are out even fiercer.

This definitely proves it's all about the snow though....we've said it for years. 90% of the forum doesn't care if you are no longer in a torch regime or if you are -10 departures on the month if it isn't going to snow. 

It's always been about snow. It will always be about snow. Snow rules everything around us. 

[mreaves]

KMPV has set 2 records in the past week and I think today will be #3.  Last week's -8° and -10° yesterday before midnight.  Looks like this morning's -15° is 1° short of the record set in 1989.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s true, ultimately we are all hyper narcissists who only care about snow IOBY’s. That’s it, full stop.

Ginxy may be the only one that loves snow in someone else’s yard as much as his. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Ginxy may be the only one that loves snow in someone else’s yard as much as his. 

Very true, lol

[weathafella]

Through 12/8/2025 monthly departures 

BOS:  -7.7

PVD: -7.8

BDL: -8.8

ORH: -8.3

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.

This time of year, these departures  are what you dream of to get snow, and we’re screwed again. It’s like the same movie over and over playing on repeat for years. So yeah, I am a little annoyed. And I’m not sold on anything good in the second half of this month with that look on some of the ensembles. It’s just getting to the point where I’m absolutely beyond frustrated. I hope to God this weekend works out.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

KMPV has set 2 records in the past week and I think today will be #3.  Last week's -8° and -10° yesterday before midnight.  Looks like this morning's -15° is 1° short of the record set in 1989.

Yesterday's daily mean temperature at MVL was -1F .

-27 daily departure.

-12.4 on the month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think most of us are, lol. Nobody complained during our warm/snowy winters...2012-13 or 2016-17. 

Not 2012...but 2016 wasn't anything great IMBY....obviously I would kill for it now, but about average to a shade under average snowfall with no noteworthy storms. The March 2017 event ended up tracking close enough that it brough mid level warmth, and wasn't anything special.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.

Nailed it.

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Through 12/8/2025 monthly departures 

BOS:  -7.7

PVD: -7.8

BDL: -8.8

ORH: -8.3

BTV: -12.4

MPV: -11.5

MVL: -12.4

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.

Yeah seeing Virginia get multiple snow events in early December doesn't help. It's one thing for that to happen in mid January but early December makes it worse. It's also pretty rare to get this type of cold for 10+ days and not get much or any snow to show for it even on the CP of SNE. We did get a stretch similar in early Dec 2018....though not quite this cold...and we got skunked while a huge storm hit VA. But fewer people were on edge in 2018....we were coming off an epic winter. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This time of year, these departures  are what you dream of to get snow, and we’re screwed again. It’s like the same movie over and over playing on repeat for years. So yeah, I am a little annoyed. And I’m not sold on anything good in the second half of this month with that look on some of the ensembles. It’s just getting to the point where I’m absolutely beyond frustrated. I hope to God this weekend works out.

I get it. It’s a lot more difficult on the coast down there pre Christmas and like you said, these are the departures you need…although I’d argue Mooseville hitting -20s on 12/9 is probably more cold than we need…especially in the 2020s versus 1970s. 

[Snowcrazed71]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This made me LOL. The amount of psychological hedging on here is hilarious. We’ve got people calling off the Sunday storm despite it still being on a decent number of ensembles. Then canceling winter. Crazy stuff. 

I've learned to tune this crap out. It's just noise. If anyone had a crystal ball and can tell us how we're going to end this winter or any winter for that matter, they would be a very rich and famous person. Until then... We wait and see what happens

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Through 12/8/2025 monthly departures 

BOS:  -7.7

PVD: -7.8

BDL: -8.8

ORH: -8.3

I’d love to see snowfall through this date with these types of departures in other years. Bet it isn’t 0

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d love to see snowfall through this date with these types of departures in other years. Bet it isn’t 0

Certainly easier to pull of the first week of December, than it is mid-winter.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.

For sure. We love each other but regional jealousy and hatred is a thing. Isn't that why the board was broken up into subforums?

I mean, in the Mid-Atlantic the DC-Baltimore folks scoff at the highland folks. The RIC crew have to tread carefully when suppression favors them and bite their tongue when DC cashes in. Even here...I know we joke...but while I'd love to post more about the turn of events that has me getting crushed in SLK, nobody in CT or Mass really gives a damn about my upslope or clipper overperformances or -14 lows, and the NNE crew does not want to see backslapping from Chief Wiggum to Kev on a southern slider. 

The annual wintertime snow wars are unlike any other meteorological phenomena. It is wishing for your brother to fail. It is rejoicing in the ruin of your friend. It is hand to hand combat.

I want everyone to be happy, sincerely, but God as my witness if the folks along the CT coast have to rain for me to get a foot of paste, I want it. If everyone south or east of me blowtorches in a Grinch storm cutting through Binghamton on Christmas Eve while I'm buried in SLK with SN+, I will sleep like a baby.

I know others feel the exact same way whether they want to admit it or not. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's the most important sentence. I don't think anyone would say this if fast flow led to numerous minor to moderate events over the last few years. We let the past cloud our judgement in the present. What makes us think that a slower pattern wouldn't lead us to the very same desolate road SNE has been on through the 2020s? Sure, maybe it would enhance the odds of phasing, but that doesn't mean it'd phase where we need it, and where we need it to can be very different depending on where you sit in this region.

We'd just be placing the meteorological risk of a fail in a different basket. Winter tracking is brutal because all of us have our biases and defense mechanisms whether they are external or internal. 

It's always been about snow. It will always be about snow. Snow rules everything around us. 

But that's just the thing...fast flows are unlikely to leas to numerous moderate events and even minor ones seem difficult to come by and are typically regulated to either far interior or elevation (depending on thermal profile). But this is the point I am getting at which Ray alluded too. We keep putting hope in these will work out but there are meteorological reasons (which Ray pointed out) which explain why that more often than not, they just aren't going to work out. 

I also don't necessarily think its a concept of letting the past cloud our judgement in the present, but more of a product of better understanding the atmosphere and how it works. Think of how many forecasts there have been these last few winters with maps getting tossed out 3 days in advance with big calls and everyone getting hyped up over amped solutions...then well inside the 3 days the models back off and all of a sudden snowfall maps are being lowered and lowered...right up to the day of the storm. Understanding this type of regime and the bias to amp in the medium range, as a forecaster, you would develop a sense of playing it more safe versus going aggressive, knowing there is a decent chance the models back off. 

But historically a slower pattern with less energy does yield much higher odds and probabilities. This holds true during the severe season too (out west). When you have troughs digging across the Plains but with tons of shortwaves...that tends to lead to destructive interference and hinder what appears to be an environment favorable for numerous supercells and tornadoes (because STP/SCP are off the charts) and the forecasts busts. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d love to see snowfall through this date with these types of departures in other years. Bet it isn’t 0

I wasn’t here in 1989-90-I arrived in July 1991.  But 1989 was cold in November and December but fairly dry. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Certainly easier to pull of the first week of December, than it is mid-winter.

2007 actually pulled it off in Boston believe it or not....they didn't get a real snow event until the 12/13 storm (interior N of pike had some in the 12/3 event)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

2007 actually pulled it off in Boston believe it or not....they didn't get a real snow event until the 12/13 storm (interior N of pike had some in the 12/3 event)

I do believe it...it was one of my December analogs and the primary one that I had in mind when coming up with my timeframe for the first significant snowfall.