December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

December to Remember!

I’ll remember it for the month that got me committed to Bellevue 

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z does get SE area with a few inches. But yeah, this one is currently all over the place on guidance. 

I feel fine with it. Probably get most a few inches.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

-11 a few miles from here now 

So what are you? The +5? I thought you had elevation so in theory you shouldn’t be one of the big rad spots…you’re not SLK.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You have to wonder if Boston and Providence can finish the month with -10° departure from  normal with above normal precipitation and zero snow to show for it?

I don’t think we have to wonder. We’re living it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Congrats Errol airport with -26°

Only -1.2° here so far on the hillside…maybe we’ll spike down at sunrise soon.

12z mins

1.6 for the low here. Haven't cracked zero yet.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How about a few more miles west at West Yellowstone?

Best chance for accumulating snow will be in the elevated
terrain of the Berks and perhaps the northern Worcester Hills
where event totals 1-3 inches are possible.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

So what are you? The +5? I thought you had elevation so in theory you shouldn’t be one of the big rad spots…you’re not SLK.

2.7 now

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

If your expecting that kinda of storm in this pattern, you’ve already failed.

Not to mention that isn't what you should be hoping for on the coast in mid December.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Best chance for accumulating snow will be in the elevated
terrain of the Berks and perhaps the northern Worcester Hills
where event totals 1-3 inches are possible.

2.7 now

1-3 beers?

[Spanks45]

3.9⁰, might trickle down a bit more before the sun comes over the hill.

Love it when the moles hills are frozen solid causing you to stub your toe and trip randomly in the yard....

[Ginx snewx]

59 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS looks awful for Christmas, GEPS, AIFS, GEFS all look a bit colder, with GEFS looking coldest. 

Remember our torched Thanksgiving models keyed on for days 2 weeks out, yea me neither. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember our torched Thanksgiving models keyed on for days 2 weeks out, yea me neither. 

Hopefully I'm wrong about that timeframe, but yea....too early to tell yet.

[CoastalWx]

Just saw the euro for VA. Let’s get them a 12–15” December before mid month. I feel like crying.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just saw the euro for VA. Let’s get them a 12–15” December. I feel like crying.

6z is meh for Sunday 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

6z is meh for Sunday 

I mean for Friday. 

Let’s get RIC more snow than Ray for December.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

-6.5°F seems like it'll do it for the low here. Hit that at 2:00AM and it's been bouncing around -6.0° since then.

Pretty sunrise illuminating the hills though!

[CT Rain]

00z Euro and Skynet ensembles definitely had a solid signal for Sunday. Hopefully that stays. 

With so much uncertainty with these individual s/ws sort of have to just roll with the ensembles at this point. 

[dryslot]

Coldest night of the season here, Got down to -12°F

[Typhoon Tip]

Only a 132 hours away ... I guess we give it a shot ( lol, this crew gives 360's an at bat).  

Still, we are challenged by immensely fast atmosphere. Most are aware by now that this shortens the outer time range where confidences fade to randomness, considerably.  Agree with Ryan that blends/ens clusters are the best bet.  For now, the EPS does have a vague signal on the 14th, suggesting the operational EC is bit of a jacked outlier ( 00z ), but am noticing that those members are below 1000 mb it seems 1/3 of the members are likely significant, while 2/3rds struggle with cirrus clouds.  Interesting range

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS looks awful for Christmas, GEPS, AIFS, GEFS all look a bit colder, with GEFS looking coldest. 

Buckshot models. Wasn’t the EPS coldest just a few days ago?

Coldest night of the season so far here. 
 

WXW1: 7.4°

WXW2: -14.1°

Shame I wasn’t there to get the VP2 up and running but that’s my first priority when I head back. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

00z Euro and Skynet ensembles definitely had a solid signal for Sunday. Hopefully that stays. 

With so much uncertainty with these individual s/ws sort of have to just roll with the ensembles at this point. 

Should be plenty to talk about in ORH on Saturday, drop by

[dendrite]

BML vis is dropping with -23°. Could be trapped wood smoke…could be some IC/diamond dust. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BML vis is dropping with -23°. Could be trapped wood smoke…could be some IC/diamond dust. 

Found a site of ASOS weather cams. Looks like it’s legit haze. 

[codfishsnowman]

We can't squeeze out an inch of waa snow before the rain overnight and tomorrow? To me that's more fckd up than a SE graze in this kind of pattern

[metagraphica]

IJD down to 5.  8 degrees IMBY.  Enough of this cold ass stick season.  Let's do some dews!!

[dendrite]

Man where has this been all my life? We need more stations with cams. Maine has a ton. 
https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-73.6621,41.75626,-69.34447,46.42395

[Cold Miser]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll remember it for the month that got me committed to Bellevue 

yup. 

Cold then rain, rinse and repeat up to the grinch storm and beyond, hopefully mixed in with polar vortex news media hype.  

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man where has this been all my life? We need more stations with cams. Maine has a ton. 
https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-73.6621,41.75626,-69.34447,46.42395

Damn. That's pretty awesome.  Quick, easy to use interface.  

[TheMainer]

-14.1F here was the low, driving it's up to -8 to -11 depending if I'm on a hill or in a gulley, good chance we stake the lake this weekend for snowmobiles which would be the earliest ever since I started doing it in 2014, 2nd earliest is boxing day. 

Hoping for at least 4 inches here tomorrow night, enough to get the railbed panned at least so we can ride from the house up to the mountain.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man where has this been all my life? We need more stations with cams. Maine has a ton. 
https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-73.6621,41.75626,-69.34447,46.42395

We used to use this stuff for helping forecast AK weather when I did it for aviation.

[moneypitmike]

59 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Rising later for a while though. 

yup......that won't start until a week or so after the solstice.