December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Mention her name and the resident predator goes wild. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mention her name and the resident predator goes wild. 

Lol…she’s just a fool.  But we laugh.  Let’s get system in here, and join the party. Frieken cold out there today. 

[Spanks45]

36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mention her name and the resident predator goes wild. 

and what is interesting about that, is why? Why so triggered about someone like her?

[weatherwiz]

Our only hope of amplifying the ridge across the West for that mid-month period is if it connects with the ridging over Alaska. But dating back to even the last few years, we have seen countless times models in the extended range want to develop these beautiful ridges in the West only for it to either not verify, or its duration was too short to have any meaningful influence downstream. Something has to change within the background state for this to actually happen, not just "the EPS wants to do this at xxxx time"). It's pretty unfortunate but the pattern is setup to favor weak clippers and shredded garbage. But for some reason...it must be something within the model physics we keep seeing these tendencies to overamplify things within a specific time range (and I even fell for this with last nights potential). But people will keep falling for it and trying to come up with ways to justify as to why "it needs to be watched". 

[CoastalWx]

Little something something on the gfs for the 14th.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Little something something on the gfs for the 14th.

nice Arctic wave. seeing the PNA get a bit better is a plus

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Little something something on the gfs for the 14th.

It just looks so simple, right? Not waiting for phasing, this and that needs to go right before snow starts falling type deal....just some energy passing to our south and cold air in place. 

[ORH_wxman]

Ridge got better this run so we get that nice wave on the weekend this run. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It just looks so simple, right? Not waiting for phasing, this and that needs to go right before snow starts falling type deal....just some energy passing to our south and cold air in place. 

Just a s/w digging enough for a light to moderate event. Simple haha. Although the flow itself is complicated with s/w’s diving SE.

[brooklynwx99]

thermal gradient aloft is pretty impressive so you really just a little bit of 500mb forcing

[mahk_webstah]

A couple of days ago the ridge looks nice and then it disappeared yesterday and now it’s back today. Not an unusual progression on models.

[ariof]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ridge got better this run so we get that nice wave on the weekend this run. 

By midweek it will be congrats RDU or ILM, probably.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ariof said:

By midweek it will be congrats RDU or ILM, probably.

Nah.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just a s/w digging enough for a light to moderate event. Simple haha. Although the flow itself is complicated with s/w’s diving SE.

I think it has a warning ceiling.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it has a warning ceiling.

These are the type of cold thickness events that can produce nice rates and fluffy ratios....you get like widespread 4-8"/6-10" totals from third to half an inch of liquid. You'd have a really deep snow growth zone in that type of setup. 

 

Now, hopefully we beef it up with more QPF, but at this point...we'd take any decent event to get on the warning scoreboard. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it has a warning ceiling.

I agree. Was just noting it verbatim. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

These are the type of cold thickness events that can produce nice rates and fluffy ratios....you get like widespread 4-8"/6-10" totals from third to half an inch of liquid. You'd have a really deep snow growth zone in that type of setup. 

 

Now, hopefully we beef it up with more QPF, but at this point...we'd take any decent event to get on the warning scoreboard. 

Exactly my thoughts....but, yea...not there yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

thermal gradient aloft is pretty impressive so you really just a little bit of 500mb forcing

Love that gradient...I think this is where things break right.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

The tool of choice for today's winter clean up, Took 5 mins for 1" of snow.

A bit noisier than my 5 minutes of broom work on 1.4" fluff.

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

A bit noisier than my 5 minutes of broom work on 1.4" fluff.

I used the Milwaukee blower on rabbit mode to blow our one inch Sunday morning. It's amazing how much force some of these new blowers have

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM has it too...same shortwave as well. Ukie also has it but a little biut of trouble rounding the corner with the vort and amplifying enough to it's a miss wide right save maybe a little light snow for south coast. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Is there still anything for Saturday showing up in the models.. or is it the same one just pushed back a day?

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

79-80 sucked but I think the next winter was one of the best I can remember up here.  Seemed like it snowed every other day punctuated by big storms every week - 10 days.   

Might be 81-82.  80-81 was dry in Maine (Farmington co-op's least snowy of 130 winters) with very cold Dec/Jan followed by a spectacular February thaw - CAR had 14.5° for the month, including 9 days of +25-30, 7 of which were consecutive.
81-82 had scads of snow, capped by the April blizzard.

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Winter storm warnings from Roanoke to Williamsburg…can’t make it up.

Dinkleshit actually….2-5 gives warnings there.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1013 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

VAZ060-061-066>069-079>083-513>516-082300-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-251208T2300Z/
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-
Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George (including Hopewell and
Petersburg)-Charles City-New Kent-Western Chesterfield-Eastern
Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including
the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
1013 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, and south central
  Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 for road information.

 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Dinkleshit actually….2-5 gives warnings there.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1013 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

VAZ060-061-066>069-079>083-513>516-082300-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-251208T2300Z/
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-
Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George (including Hopewell and
Petersburg)-Charles City-New Kent-Western Chesterfield-Eastern
Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including
the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
1013 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, and south central
  Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 for road information.

 

I’d take dinkleshit.

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d take dinkleshit.

Me too but I wouldn’t huddle at home for it.

[MJO812]

AI Euro is nice

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nice Arctic wave. seeing the PNA get a bit better is a plus

Given the raging PAC jet, would bet against this outcome

[Damage In Tolland]

Icon has it Saturday