December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Peeking at the latest gfs…

H7 doesn’t close off or really even back…SW flow and plenty of WAA up there until the trof axis passes. H85 does. Kinda has that front ender look initially with closed off low levels. If you look at H85 it looks like the primary wants to cut west and then it jumps quickly eastward to our south. 

Ok so it’s not a true coastal on that depiction then?  Kind of a hybrid? 

[brooklynwx99]

58 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok

On 8/18/2024 at 12:30 PM, qg_omega said:

No reason to not go warmest winter ever, Nina + -PDO = 4+5+6 all winter

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok so it’s not a true coastal on that depiction then?  Kind of a hybrid? 

It’s a coastal, but some of the mid level dynamics are still WAA biased initially. It does try to back and close off higher up as it gets over ME.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL at Maine.

That map looks highly suspect...

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

0" for me. Sweet.

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

That lightest gray patch is a bit north of you, and right over me.  It's surprising how often modeled snowfall includes that Fryeburg-Danforth hole.  Fortunately, it doesn't verify all that often.

[moneypitmike]

For the love of God--no one start a thread before Sunday.

[HoarfrostHubb]

19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

For the love of God--no one start a thread before Sunday.

Somewhere in Ayer, MA, fingers are getting ready to type 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Somewhere in Ayer, MA, fingers are getting ready to type 

Hovering over the keyboard.

[Damage In Tolland]

Like a Roman helmet about to drop on Scooter’s face 

[moneypitmike]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Somewhere in Ayer, MA, fingers are getting ready to type 

They've already been typing for two hours.

[Layman]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Like a Roman helmet about to drop on Scooter’s face 

This reads as though there could be a dramatic, 300-esque movie historical significance to it but I fear I may be misinterpreting this particular “Roman helmet”…

[UnitedWx]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Hovering over the zipper

more likely 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The 6z euro is probably best case here.

 

Everything else is a mess south of pike 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Layman said:

This reads as though there could be a dramatic, 300-esque movie historical significance to it but I fear I may be misinterpreting this particular “Roman helmet”…

Like warm fronts, that pride front ripped through Tolland first. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Layman said:

This reads as though there could be a dramatic, 300-esque movie historical significance to it but I fear I may be misinterpreting this particular “Roman helmet”…

Scooter knows 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would hit this hard. 6Z Euro with more to fall 

Going to be hard to get all snow south of rt 2 and 84 with the latest trends the past 18 hours. Verbatim that 6z euro wouldn’t be as good south of 84. 2-4” then ice and rain as the mid levels are torched by then .
 

Let’s get that high to start trending to stick around for longer! 

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON not backing down atleast

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z ICON not backing down atleast

987mb over the cape.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

987mb over the cape.

Foot plus here we pray

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Foot plus here we pray

Same here verbatim, Its a fast mover as well but it would be some high rates.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

For the love of God--no one start a thread before Sunday.

I would say Saturday is thread time. That’s getting well within a goal post window. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

987mb over the cape.

That will crush the interior. 

[dendrite]

Over 1.5” liquid in the interior. Good luck with that.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That will crush the interior. 

Absolutely.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Over 1.5” liquid in the interior. Good luck with that.

GFS was around 1.3" + for some areas.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon looks gross for most of SNE. Cold rain until you get north and west or Worcester 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The way this system is currently modeled is pretty much on point with the way the last half decade has gone in SNE. If it’s not one thing it’s another.

 

a few days ago this was weak and well SE of the area. So that corrects positively and is no modeled as a stronger, closer storm. However, the high pressure is now retreating at record speed, so the end result is a cold rain for many, outside of CNE.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The way this system is currently modeled is pretty much on point with the way the last half decade has gone in SNE. If it’s not one thing it’s another.

 

a few days ago this was weak and well SE of the area. So that corrects positively and is no modeled as a stronger, closer storm. However, the high pressure is now retreating at record speed, so the end result is a cold rain for many, outside of CNE.

Gonna be tough for coastal and SE peeps. This isn’t their storm unless it threads the needle.  
 

I think interior SNE could do well though. 

[moneypitmike]

5 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

 

We haven't yet.  Our offer on a house in Mattepoisett has been accepted (still not under contract though).

 

Happy Thanksgiving, All!

 

 

EDIT:  Just signed the contract.  Wasn't expecting to be doing that this morning!  Mattepoisett here we come.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna be tough for coastal and SE peeps. This isn’t their storm unless it threads the needle.  
 

I think interior SNE could do well though. 

Still gunning for Pit2- Jeff.  I think that's still doable.