December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[jm1220]

52 minutes ago, psv88 said:

27/3 now. Arctic airmass. 
 

good for the utility companies and ski resorts up north. Otherwise useless 

And for stores that sell ChapStick. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

any word from the EPS?

[Dan76]

For Ant

Today

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread dense freezing fog before 2pm, then areas of dense freezing fog after 3pm. High near 22. Wind chill values between -2 and 3. Windy, with a west southwest wind 36 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 41 to 47 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Wind chill values between -2 and -7. Windy, with a west southwest wind 44 to 49 mph decreasing to 36 to 41 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 41 to 47 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Wind chill values between -7 and 3. West southwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Wind chill values between 1 and 6. Windy, with a west southwest wind 32 to 37 mph increasing to 41 to 46 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Windy, with a west southwest wind 31 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.

[North and West]

although some can survive anything-the spotted lanternfly egg nests can survive down to -20.

Unfortunately true


.

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS and 12Z Euro Very Close

[WeatherGeek2025]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS and 12Z Euro Very Close

we need a really wound up system to get a tone of snow it's cold so i don't think we'll worry about mid unless we are overhead 

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

we need a really wound up system to get a tone of snow it's cold so i don't think we'll worry about mid unless we are overhead 

what is a "tone" of snow "- ??? i don't think we'll worry about mid unless we are overhead " -- what are you talking about ????

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

any word from the EPS?

[NorthShoreWx]

51 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

For Ant

Today

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread dense freezing fog before 2pm, then areas of dense freezing fog after 3pm. High near 22. Wind chill values between -2 and 3. Windy, with a west southwest wind 36 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 41 to 47 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow, mainly before 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Wind chill values between -2 and -7. Windy, with a west southwest wind 44 to 49 mph decreasing to 36 to 41 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 41 to 47 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Wind chill values between -7 and 3. West southwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Wind chill values between 1 and 6. Windy, with a west southwest wind 32 to 37 mph increasing to 41 to 46 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Windy, with a west southwest wind 31 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.

Is this RIC or ORF?

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what is a "tone" of snow "- ??? i don't think we'll worry about mid unless we are overhead " -- what are you talking about ????

The tone today is a monotone snow weenie sigh under our thin cirrus deck while SE VA gets their 2nd snowstorm in a week. 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The tone today is a monotone snow weenie sigh under our thin cirrus deck while SE VA gets their 2nd snowstorm in a week. 

 

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Miss the 2010-2018 KU benchmark era when we could lock in a 168 hr euro control run showing a near 950 mb low close to  the benchmark and have it be correct. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

This is almost certainly survivorship bias. Few here might remember the string of runs from the Euro and GFS and their ensemble counterparts from the week before that, showing a massive overrunning event that fizzled out at medium range. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

This is almost certainly survivorship bias. Few here might remember the string of runs from the Euro and GFS and their ensemble counterparts from the week before that, showing a massive overrunning event that fizzled out at medium range. 

In great winter storm patterns over the years for our area, it wasn’t unusual for at least one of the long range model runs to correctly see the storm potential.

During late January and early February 2021, it was an OP GEM run that had a correct KU forecast from a week out.

With the poor storm track patterns for big snows since February 2022, none of those OP runs showing numerous KUs long range have verified. 

 

[Tatamy]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The tone today is a monotone snow weenie sigh under our thin cirrus deck while SE VA gets their 2nd snowstorm in a week. 

Current observation at Wakefield is Heavy Snow with 1/4 mile visibility.  They have a WSW with expected totals between 3-6”.  Looks like the corridor between Richmond and Newport News gets the JP.