December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[SACRUS]

Dec 28 1990 :  NYC 7.2 inches of snow had fallen overnight into the morning.

EWR: 7.6
LGA: 7.3
JFK: 6.1

 

 

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Dec 28 1990 :  NYC 7.2 inches of snow had fallen overnight into the morning.

EWR: 7.6
LGA: 7.3
JFK: 6.1

 

 

Nice overperforming storm. Forecast that morning was 1 to 3. Then upgraded to 3 to 6 in the afternoon and ended up with close to 8. 

[MANDA]

17 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

They were tougher back then IMO. I’d bet people just put more layers on and kept the heat lower in general. I work with people that remote start their car from their work desk at the end of the day so the car is the perfect temp for them before they even open the car door to drive home. 25 degrees now after a high of 26 under gray skies and a decent snowpack, what a winter day. 

I do that 

Gone are the days of getting into an ice cold car.  

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

18/13 currently; it remains very picturesque outside with the snow still clinging to the trees. 

Same here.  No melting yesterday.  Snow depth yesterday morning was 2.8" and this morning 2.6" from a little compaction.  100% coverage and roof tops and trees still snow covered.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

A shame how the 2001 season ended. The March snow bust really drags that year down because that's the lasting moment everyone remembers from that winter. If the snow bust happened on December 30 (2000) and the major storm happened in early March 2001, no one would care about the snow bust, and everyone would be talking about how 2001 was a decent winter.

Fair enough and most people feel that way, but out here we had 12 - 15" of snow from the March 2001 storm, so less than was forecasted at the time, but not a disaster imby.

[hooralph]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

A shame how the 2001 season ended. The March snow bust really drags that year down because that's the lasting moment everyone remembers from that winter. If the snow bust happened on December 30 (2000) and the major storm happened in early March 2001, no one would care about the snow bust, and everyone would be talking about how 2001 was a decent winter.

In Boston (proper) the 12/30/2000 was a horrific Blutarski 0.0 bust, so paired with the March storm (which was still impactful but not the son of '78 we were promised) they were kick-in-the-nuts bookends to the season.

[Dark Star]

16 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Climate is dynamic and ever changing, 1840s is not relevant

I don't know.  I feel that all recordable history events are valid and relevant.  I am in the minority that average temperatures should factor in from whenever we first started recording.  We use maximum and minimum temperatures from inception...

[hooralph]

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't know.  I feel that all recordable history events are valid and relevant.  I am in the minority that average temperatures should factor in from whenever we first started recording.  We use maximum and minimum temperatures from inception...

Was watching the Ken Burns Revolutionary War series last night and they got to the winter of 1779-80. Hudson so frozen over you could just walk to New Jersey. Can you even imagine?

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't know.  I feel that all recordable history events are valid and relevant.  I am in the minority that average temperatures should factor in from whenever we first started recording.  We use maximum and minimum temperatures from inception...

I get the post. If we were going to make a forecast, why would we leverage 1840? Anything beyond 30 years will not help us make a seasonal or event forecast. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, hooralph said:

Was watching the Ken Burns Revolutionary War series last night and they got to the winter of 1779-80. Hudson so frozen over you could just walk to New Jersey. Can you even imagine?

That would be an absolute nightmare lol.

[psv88]

15 this morning 

[Picard]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I get the post. If we were going to make a forecast, why would we leverage 1840? Anything beyond 30 years will not help us make a seasonal or event forecast. 

I agree with using the latest 30 years as a valid forecasting tool, and those data sets are vitally important.
I also think we should have readily available longer term data sets to fully understand climate shifts over the last couple of centuries, including how man made factors are contributing to the documented warmth.  It's a climate vs. meteorology debate, and both are important.

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, Picard said:

I agree with using the latest 30 years as a valid forecasting tool, and those data sets are vitally important.
I also think we should have readily available longer term data sets to fully understand climate shifts over the last couple of centuries, including how man made factors are contributing to the documented warmth.  It's a climate vs. meteorology debate, and both are important.

History in general is useful, however, I just do not see the benefit from a forecasting perspective where we are trying to understand the upcoming patterns (this forum). I would personally 50 years is ideal, as I am seeing a lot of the 1970s, 80s and 90s repeat since 2018 (actually lived through 80s onward). I don't see how stating "this cold would have been above average in 1923" will help us do a January forecast.

There is a separate climate change forum where past information is highly relevant and should be discussed, as it can help us prepare for continued change (unless it stops or reverts).

[BxEngine]

53 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Was watching the Ken Burns Revolutionary War series last night and they got to the winter of 1779-80. Hudson so frozen over you could just walk to New Jersey. Can you even imagine?

Happened in 1994 slightly further north. There is too much important shipping traffic for it to ever really happen in modern times anyway even if we saw a record setting cold.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, hooralph said:

Was watching the Ken Burns Revolutionary War series last night and they got to the winter of 1779-80. Hudson so frozen over you could just walk to New Jersey. Can you even imagine?

I've heard of that at other times too, but practically speaking that wasn't an easy walk.  With the tides still moving every cycle, there would have been pressure ridges and cracks; not smooth ice.

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I've heard of that at other times too, but practically speaking that wasn't an easy walk.  With the tides still moving every cycle, there would have been pressure ridges and cracks; not smooth ice.

The show said they moved cannons and other supplies across the river on the ice. 
 

New York harbor and the Long Island sound also froze over. How far east idk. But apparently the temp never went above 0 for like 2 months in Morristown 

[lee59]

This looks to be the coldest December in 15 years for much of the area.

[NorthShoreWx]

36 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The show said they moved cannons and other supplies across the river on the ice. 
 

New York harbor and the Long Island sound also froze over. How far east idk. But apparently the temp never went above 0 for like 2 months in Morristown 

Undoubtedly they found a way, but it's hit and miss.  These are from when the Sound partially froze over in 2015 (can't believe it's been almost 11 years).  A bit chunky, but Mrs and I found a spot to stand.

 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Undoubtedly they found a way, but it's hit and miss.  These are from when the Sound partially froze over in 2015 (can't believe it's been almost 11 years).  A bit chunky, but Mrs and I found a spot to stand.

 

Nice photo. I remember crossing the throgs neck bridge and seeing the sound frozen completely across from queens to the Bronx. Probably have some photos somewhere 

[hooralph]

Among other things, it led to serious deforestation of the island for firewood. 

 

https://www.gothamcenter.org/blog/war-weary-nature-environment-british-occupation-and-the-winter-of-1779-1780

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The distribution of the snowfall this month between ISP, PHI, and BOS is not what we typically see when Islip has a snowy 10”+ December. This is the first time since 1988 that ISP has 10”+ in December and either Philly or Boston doesn’t have at least 10” also.

It’s why we may not be able to use the snowy December winter analogs that followed the other 10” December years on the list. This is due to the 10” at ISP being the first December with two 5”+ clippers that had narrower areas with heavy snow than benchmark coastal snowstorms that also affected Philly or Boston in the other snowy Decembers at Islip.

So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the winter plays out at all three locations. 

All 10”+ snowy Decembers at ISP and the Boston and Philly snowfall

2009…ISP…25.3”….BOS….15.2”….PHI….24.1”

2002…ISP….16.0”….BOS….11.1”……PHI….8.4”

2003…ISP….15.5”…..BOS….21.5”….PHI….6.0”

2010….ISP….14.9”…..BOS…..22.0”…PHI…12.7”

1995….ISP…..13.3”…..BOS…..12.6”….PHI….7.3”

2025….ISP…12.4”…..BOS…..2.3”……PHI….4.5”

1969….ISP….12.0”…..BOS……12.6”….PHI….7.5”

1975…..ISP….11.4”…..BOS…..19.3”……PHI….7.5”

1963…..ISP…..11.0”….BOS….17.7”…….PHI….8.0”

2000….ISP…..10.8”….BOS….4.5”….…PHI…..10.5”

2008….ISP…..10.4”….BOS….25.3”…..PHI…..0.4”

1988…..ISP…..10.4”….BOS….3.7”……PHI…..0.4”

 

 

 I looked at the NYC snowfall for the 17 -ENSO winters for which Dec was cold and had snowfall of 6”+ (from @donsutherland1updated list):

 

Year (Dec)..Total Season..Jan+

1872….60.2….29.9

1874….56.4….46.3

1886….31.9….21.6

1893….39.2….30.9

1903….32.4….26.0

1909….27.2….17.4

1915….50.7….42.6

1916….50.7….36.2

1917….34.5….20.1

1922….60.4….51.4

1926….22.3….10.6

1933….52.0….36.6

1942….29.5….21.0

1944….27.1….20.4

1995….75.6….61.2

2000….35.0….21.6

2010….61.9….41.8

————————

Analysis:

-AVG of these Jan+: 31.5” vs 22.1” full 156 year record mean or 143% of mean for Jan+ (median was 29.9”)

-41% (7 of 17) had 35”+ for Jan+ vs only 12% of the other 139 (17 of 139)

-These 17, which are only 11% of the total 156 on record, had:

1. Highest Jan of the 156 on record (2011’s 36.0”) and 3 of top 5 Jans (2011, 1996, 1923)

2. 3rd highest Feb of the 156 (1934’s 27.9”)

3. 2nd highest Mar of the 156 (2016’s 25.5”)

4. Highest Apr of the 156 (1875’s 13.5”) and tie for 5th (1917’s 6.5”)

—————————

My NYC total 2025-6 snow prediction based on these stats:

 40” (most likely range 30-50”)

 This compares to 156 year and 35 year means of 28”.

[the_other_guy]

41 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Undoubtedly they found a way, but it's hit and miss.  These are from when the Sound partially froze over in 2015 (can't believe it's been almost 11 years).  A bit chunky, but Mrs and I found a spot to stand.

 

This is true. it froze in wading river. and that is wide open there

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Undoubtedly they found a way, but it's hit and miss.  These are from when the Sound partially froze over in 2015 (can't believe it's been almost 11 years).  A bit chunky, but Mrs and I found a spot to stand.

 

This is from Rye, NY looking across the Sound on a cloudy day. 

[NorthShoreWx]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is from Rye, NY looking across the Sound on a cloudy day. 

Nice catch with the eagle!

[Nibor]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is from Rye, NY looking across the Sound on a cloudy day. 

Love to see them making a comeback. There's a few in Jersey City that I'll see from time to time.

[SACRUS]

Just touched freezing and at 33, under today on forecasts.

 

[psv88]

46 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Just touched freezing and at 33, under today on forecasts.

 

33 here as well. No wind. Great day for a walk with the dogs around the neighborhood in the winter landscape. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Had a little coating of snow/freezing fog this morning. I don't know what to call it? Lasted till about 9:30 am. Coated all surfaces,  including roads. High today was 32.0.

Temp dropping now. Down to 30.4, which I don't like with possible freezing rain coming in.

[Roger Smith]

Correlating 12z GFS to current obs, will estimate peak in temps at 58 F around 10 or 11 a.m., then a steady fall into 30s to 4 p.m., with occasional gusts to 40 mph. Heaviest rain will fall around 11 a.m. and noon.  There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm with the cold front. 

Temps in warm sector currently near 70 F (SDF is 74F) but I think the interaction of air mass with snow cover will fog up the mild air and the warmest portion will be experienced in s NJ where it may reach 65 F. That temperature of 74F at Louisville is a daily record, 70F in 2021 was their previous record. But they had 74F on the 27th in 2021 for yesterday's record. 

As I posted in storm thread, combined effects of snowmelt and 0.25" rainfall could be localized urban ponding by early Monday afternoon, and eventually any slush left on the ground will freeze Monday night, so Tuesday could be an icy mess in some places. Locations with 6" or more snow on ground will not lose all snow in the melt and what's left will become a frozen ground cover. (I am looking out on that kind of scene after past four days here brought this same sequence, our freeze-up began Friday night). 

Happy new year, hope the promising January pattern brings some meaningful winter weather. 

[NorthShoreWx]

31.8⁰ DP 25 in Smithtown.  I'm well versed in the whole wind off the water/ raining when it gets here thing, but I'm wondering now if we shouldn't be looking out for a little freezing rain near the coast too.