December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I am sure Virginia wasn't looking for average or above average snowfall and they are getting closer to it and its only December 8 - totally unexpected - could easily have happened around these parts = also these Clipper systems are not being handled well by the models or the arctic air - have to take them one at a time - this supposed warmup Christmas week is suspect too at this point

way too early to nail down xmas week-if you remember 3 weeks ago some said Thanksgiving week/first week of December would be mild-complete and total bust.

[NorthShoreWx]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t had a single average or above average snowfall season since the mid 90s without having at least one NESIS 1 or higher BM KU snowstorm.

So KU benchmark storms have been mandatory for reaching average to above average snow since 93-94.

Prior to the mid 90s this wasn’t the case in the much colder climate. We could string together a series of smaller snow events and reach into the 20s for snowfall. 
 

 

Is this because we stopped getting smaller storms or because some of the same storms got bigger?  More of a rhetorical question because I have no idea how one could answer it. 

Is there a way to look at annual snowfall totals net of NESIS storms?

[MANDA]

Currently 22 here (10:30 a.m.) with some scattered flurries between 8 and 8:30.

Currently mid to upper teens NW Sussex County ice box spots as cold air continues to spill in behind the front.

[donsutherland1]

Statistical tidbit from 1990-91 through 2024-25:

14/15 (93%) of winters with above normal seasonal snowfall had a least one day with 8" or more snow (72% prior to 1990-91)
17/18 (94%) of winters with below normal seasonal snowfall did not have any 8" or above daily amounts (75% prior to 1990-91)
14/17 (82%) of winters with at least one day with 8" or above snowfall had above normal seasonal snowfall (63% prior to 1990-91)

2014-15 with 50.3" seasonal snowfall was the lone exception for seasons with above normal snowfall with a maximum daily amount of 7.5" since 1990-91.

This data suggests that in the contemporary warmer climate, a big snowstorm has become relatively more important to seasonal snowfall outcomes than in the past. Both subsets are longer than 30 seasons in length suggesting that the difference provides some insight. Moreover, this is what would be expected in a warmer climate with somewhat fewer snowy days.

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

30 years since the mid 90s and over 100 years prior to that period isn’t a small sample size. What you describe as rigid is actually a very comprehensive approach which I have used with great success for long range outlooks.

Since my approach is data driven, I haven’t come to any firm ideas yet on whether we can eventually shift back to at least some occasional benchmark tracks in the future.

But the long term decline in snowfall has been unmistakable. So I leave open the idea of a bounce off these lows in coming years if we can weaken the Pacific Jet a bit. But this is very uncertain since the recent shifts have been so extreme. 

Yep-there’s a reason why we always have “bad luck” or shortwaves interfering with storm setups and amplification. The flow is too zonal/fast so we have interference all the time from competing s/w and the ridge placement/amplification out west is always off-ridge is too flat or pushed out of place. Maybe one day we can get “lucky” even in this pattern and we won’t have to deal with all this interference, but to me it just seems very hostile to getting any larger snow system around the city than a small 1-2” type clipper like we had last December. Once the ridge out west amplifies, we can get some real blocking and the SE ridge stays muted we can talk about something bigger. 

[forkyfork]

bad patterns produce bad luck

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

bad patterns produce bad luck

As much as I get accused of being “warm biased”, which may certainly be true, the same cast of characters have been trying to force KU’s/major snowstorms up the east coast, I-95 corridor since the 2022-23 winter….4 winters in a row now. Literally since December, 2022, it’s always the same voices saying to just wait, a major I-95 snowstorm pattern is right around the corner. It goes both ways

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As much as I get accused of being “warm biased”, which may certainly be true, the same cast of characters have been trying to force KU’s/major snowstorms up the east coast, I-95 corridor since the 2022-23 winter….4 winters in a row now. Literally since December, 2022, it’s always the same voices saying to just wait, a major I-95 snowstorm pattern is right around the corner. It goes both ways

Well-good thing is that Mother Nature couldn’t care less what a bunch of weenies on a weather board post or try to “force”. We have no power over it. It sucks watching Richmond get hit again while we just have some clouds and dry cold, but reality couldn’t care less. We can just evaluate it and try to learn what we can while hoping that the pattern changes. 

[SACRUS]

 

[MJO812]

Gfs snowstorm this weekend

Euro was also amplified at 6z. Aifs was also a hit.

 

[MJO812]

No clue why some idiots are giving me weenies when the pattern supports an amplified solution.

Storms can pop out of no where in this pattern.

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No clue why some idiots are giving me weenies when the pattern supports an amplified solution.

Storms can pop out of no where in this pattern.

They can, and when they do pop up, I think we know what areas will receive snow, and it likely won't be here. Winter has shown its cards, a continuation of a suppressed, hugger, or cutter pattern that has existed for the past 7 years (exception being 2021 and 2022). It's unfortunate, and at some point I'm sure we'll see some snow. But this is eerily similar to December 2022. Colder than normal, great looking pattern, and snow everywhere except for our region. And in a La Nina, if we have below average snow in December, it likely extends to rest of winter as well. 

[North and West]

No clue why some idiots are giving me weenies when the pattern supports an amplified solution.
Storms can pop out of no where in this pattern.

I wish the mobile app would allow some hilarious like options. 🫠


.

[mattinpa]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No clue why some idiots are giving me weenies when the pattern supports an amplified solution.

Storms can pop out of no where in this pattern.

I think your posts have been very reasonable. I don’t understand if either. Yes, cautious posts are fine but to outright weenie or dismiss seems too much.

[mob1]

Canadian has the wave on the 14th as well (albeit a weak one)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs snowstorm this weekend

Euro was also amplified at 6z. Aifs was also a hit.

 

Better to rely on the the various ensemble means at this point which show a less amplified solution than the OP GFS due the fast flow and kicker lows coming into the West Coast at that time.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, bluewave said:

Better to rely on the the various ensemble means at this point which show a less amplified solution due the fast flow and kicker lows coming into the West Coast at that time.

always go with the less snowy solutions in my opinion. until it hits!

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

No clue why some idiots are giving me weenies when the pattern supports an amplified solution.

Storms can pop out of no where in this pattern.

it does look more promising as of 12Z today of at least a light to moderate event later in the weekend and maybe something light before that later in the week but for the late weekend system - it still is more than 5 days out so If it shows up starting at 0Z tonight I will get interested and it has to show up on more than 1 model . As for the "idiots" with the weenies just put them on ignore they are the ones which BX Engine mentioned yesterday in a post....

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it does look more promising for today of at least a light to moderate event later in the weekend and maybe something light before that later in the week but for the late weekend system - it still is more than 5 days out so If it shows up starting at 0Z tonight I will get interested and it has to show up on more than 1 model . As for the "idiots" with the weenies just put them on ignore they are the ones which BX Engine mentioned yesterday in a post....

AI euro also shows a few inches. Hopefully the phase 8 mjo will start working in our favor .

[NEG NAO]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI euro also shows a few inches. Hopefully the phase 8 mjo will start working in our favor .

Another positive signal Euro AI onboard- the Phase 8 MJO  is now close to or into the COD so its weak not sure where it will be on the 15th - it is moving fast

[MJO812]

Euro has some light snow for NYC Saturday and Sunday morning

[NittanyWx]

Public Service Announcement:  The models 'know' what phase/state of the MJO we are in.  The idea the models aren't 'seeing' the MJO and will suddenly start seeing it is complete nonsense.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Public Service Announcement:  The models 'know' what phase/state of the MJO we are in.  The idea the models aren't 'seeing' the MJO and will suddenly start seeing it is complete nonsense.

MJO is now in the Phase 8 COD - so other factors are having a larger influence on the weather models.........Also it seems that the MJO gets jammed up inside the Phase 8

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

MJO is now in the Phase 8 COD - so other factors are having a larger influence on the weather models.........

Yes and dont forget the small lag.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes and dont forget the small lag.

how many inches does euro show for white plains, ny

 

[psv88]

27/3 now. Arctic airmass. 
 

good for the utility companies and ski resorts up north. Otherwise useless 

[MANDA]

12Z OP GFS (yeah, I know GFS, 300+ hours out, lowest skill score of the major globals) persists in uncorking western Canada / High Arctic cold flow into the U.S. in the lead up to Christmas.  Details and placement to be confirmed but the point is that it's too early to be dismissive of significant cold lasting into Christmas week.  GFS probably extreme but I'm not planning on a Christmas torch this year.  The 12Z GFS surface pattern out to the end of the run is something we've not seen in quite a while with high pressure stretching from the high Arctic southeastward into the central U.S.

Time will tell and something interesting to watch.  

In the meantime pattern is cold and dry with precipitation being measured in the a couple of tenths at best over the next 7 days or so.  I just can't get too invested in little nickle and dime snow events.  Unless it falls on Christmas Eve.  

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

always go with the less snowy solutions in my opinion. until it hits!

Miss the 2010-2018 KU benchmark era when we could lock in a 168 hr euro control run showing a near 950 mb low close to  the benchmark and have it be correct. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

12Z OP GFS (yeah, I know GFS, 300+ hours out, lowest skill score of the major globals) persists in uncorking western Canada / High Arctic cold flow into the U.S. in the lead up to Christmas.  Details and placement to be confirmed but the point is that it's too early to be dismissive of significant cold lasting into Christmas week.  GFS probably extreme but I'm not planning on a Christmas torch this year.  The 12Z GFS surface pattern out to the end of the run is something we've not seen in quite a while with high pressure stretching from the high Arctic southeastward into the central U.S.

Time will tell and something interesting to watch.  

In the meantime pattern is cold and dry with precipitation being measured in the a couple of tenths at best over the next 7 days or so.  I just can't get too invested in little nickle and dime snow events.  Unless it falls on Christmas Eve.  

 

Its not a couple tenths of an inch its over half inch