November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s more important to snow around here in December than the NAO 

im calling for 80-100 inches of digital snow this season

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

im calling for 80-100 inches of digital snow this season

Did you cancel winter yet?  

[Paleocene]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

im calling for 80-100 inches of digital snow this season

Every year I think that someone should do a running tally of the "total digital snow expected next 120 hours" and put it on a spreadsheet. Start on 12/1/25, then add a new row on 12/5/25, etc

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Every year I think that someone should do a running tally of the "total digital snow expected next 120 hours" and put it on a spreadsheet. Start on 12/1/25, then add a new row on 12/5/25, etc

I've had a similar thought... maybe I'll give it a whirl this year for DCA. 

Speaking of digital snow that's unlikely to happen, GFS is back to trying for Tuesday. Temps before, during, and after the "event" suggest it would be wet snow that doesn't really stick anywhere but it's the only game in town. Don't think another model has shown anything at all, so 

[Chris78]

50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I've had a similar thought... maybe I'll give it a whirl this year for DCA. 

Speaking of digital snow that's unlikely to happen, GFS is back to trying for Tuesday. Temps before, during, and after the "event" suggest it would be wet snow that doesn't really stick anywhere but it's the only game in town. Don't think another model has shown anything at all, so 

Canadian and Icon both have the system but it scoots south of us. As depicted the northern tier could get on the board with the GFS scenario. 

Below freezing along the M/D line overnight and only mid 30s by  Tuesday afternoon. 

[bncho]

56 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I've had a similar thought... maybe I'll give it a whirl this year for DCA. 

Speaking of digital snow that's unlikely to happen, GFS is back to trying for Tuesday. Temps before, during, and after the "event" suggest it would be wet snow that doesn't really stick anywhere but it's the only game in town. Don't think another model has shown anything at all, so 

we have a chance... 

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Canadian and Icon both have the system but it scoots south of us. As depicted the northern tier could get on the board with the GFS scenario. 

Below freezing along the M/D line overnight and only mid 30s by  Tuesday afternoon. 

Euro tries as well but it's too north for most people

[NorthArlington101]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro tries as well but it's too north for most people

Yeah, right when I say the GFS has no company, the EURO pretty much spits out the same outcome. Temps are still bad... wouldn't exactly expect any of this to stick, but it's interesting. If the moisture didn't get totally shredded from 126 - > 132 it might've had more blues.

[WEATHER53]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good news and bad news 

The bad news is, models took away the prolonged/sustained west-based -NAO that it had been showing, the last few runs. 

The good news is, around the turn of the month they are developing a strong -WPO pattern with +PNA underneath of it -- a Pacific based cold pattern that should put much of the CONUS below average to start off December

0z GEFS mean hr384

Hopefully we are not beginning the delayed but…crap that have so crippled the models in winter forecasting 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[bncho]

For the 11/17-18 system, EPS shows a weak but not insignificant 11 out of 50 hits (22%) for at least one of the airports in this forum.

[Alfoman]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

For the 11/17-18 system, EPS shows a weak but not insignificant 11 out of 50 hits (22%) for at least one of the airports in this forum.

Would absolutely love some TV snow to start the season if we could get some wet flakes to fly...

[Eskimo Joe]

Interesting

 

 

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

For the 11/17-18 system, EPS shows a weak but not insignificant 11 out of 50 hits (22%) for at least one of the airports in this forum.

I share your enthusiasm for snow and many on the forum will say that I still post too many "clown" snow maps, ( I think I'm a better poster now with the excellent constructive feedback I have received) but there is nothing here....when I see many members showing 3 or more inches of snow inside 7 days, I start watching.  You will be able to post the above most of the season and you won't see a flake east of the mountains.

With this system, at this time it is weak sauce on the EPS and just too warm. WB 12Z EPS.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

^my benchmark of success for next week's potential is TV Snow

[bncho]

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

excellent constructive feedback I have received

thanks for passing it down.

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Interesting

 

The ultimate model "inverse can kick" period of all time was JFM 2014. It was uncanny

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+PNA pattern trying to build at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. As PSUhoffman posted, we can get snow from this pattern. Let's see if it develops and holds as we get closer

[WxUSAF]

^yeah, GEFS and EPS both have a strong +PNA/-EPO developing around Thanksgiving with our -NAO fading away. My instinct is that the PNA+EPO ridging is more useful for our early season snow chances since it’s a more effective cold air delivery mechanism and we need more anomalous BN temps in early December to snow. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah pretty classic -EPO showing up for the last few days of the month

Models at that range did just completely lose a sustained -NAO, so let's see if it hold when we get closer... but it does match weak-negative ENSO/strong -QBO analogs for late Nov/early Dec

 

[WxUSAF]

 

[snowfan]

Happy sweating in the kitchen with the turkey in the oven. Make it a cookout. 

 

[Ji]

Did you cancel winter yet?  

No but I’m sure you did

[TSSN+]

Still looking pretty boring weather wise for the foreseeable future. Do storm systems around here exist anymore? lol 

[winter_warlock]

From Meteorologist Mike Masco...

 

FWIW

 

FULL BLOCK SETTING UP AS WE HEAD INTO DECEMBER?
The latest European weekly run is flashing a very intriguing signal: a robust ridge building along the West Coast, arcing through Alaska, and extending all the way toward Greenland. That kind of alignment is classic high-latitude blocking, and it typically forces the entire jet stream to buckle south. When that happens, colder air is free to spill into the eastern half of the U.S. while storm systems ride along a more energized southern branch.

What’s even more interesting is the early suggestion of a Southeast ridge trying to flex at times. That feature can act as a pivot point—sometimes enhancing moisture return, sometimes redirecting storm tracks, and occasionally helping to “trap” systems along the East Coast. It’s the kind of tug-of-war setup that can produce some very dynamic nor’easter development if timing lines up.

Not to sound cliché because it feels like we say this every year… but based on the weeklies, this is legitimately one of the strongest early-season pattern setups I’ve seen at this range. If the blocking verifies, December could open with a bang.

I'll mention this a little on PIX 11 News Morning Show between 7-10am and over the weekend.

[WxUSAF]

For the moment it seems that the best pattern is not going to be Thanksgiving weekend, which as I’ve said, is a-ok with me. Much rather the second or third week of December and that seems to be the flavor of the long range guidance right now. That’s what @griteaterhas been saying as well.

[WesternFringe]

3 hours ago, snowfan said:

Happy sweating in the kitchen with the turkey in the oven. Make it a cookout. 

 

Sure, if we take a deterministic model verbatim at hour 324.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

For the moment it seems that the best pattern is not going to be Thanksgiving weekend, which as I’ve said, is a-ok with me. Much rather the second or third week of December and that seems to be the flavor of the long range guidance right now. That’s what @griteaterhas been saying as well.

I haven't really been paying much attention but i have seen that a cold start is anticipated but what looks to change to get the moisture flowing? This dry has been stubborn as heck...maybe we can have a cold January and a super wet month like we had in the summer? I forget what month it was but it was glorious...time that with some cold and it can be dry the other months for all i care.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

For the moment it seems that the best pattern is not going to be Thanksgiving weekend, which as I’ve said, is a-ok with me. Much rather the second or third week of December and that seems to be the flavor of the long range guidance right now. That’s what @griteaterhas been saying as well.

Thats great. I don't want rain and 42 on Thanksgiving while the interior/appalachians from Morgantown to Ithaca NY get 10" of paste!

[WxUSAF]

43 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I haven't really been paying much attention but i have seen that a cold start is anticipated but what looks to change to get the moisture flowing? This dry has been stubborn as heck...maybe we can have a cold January and a super wet month like we had in the summer? I forget what month it was but it was glorious...time that with some cold and it can be dry the other months for all i care.

I think the dry is going to remain stubborn until next spring-ish. And if we get a wet winter month it’s probably going to be mild overall. Just the nature of La Niña.