November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s more important to snow around here in December than the NAO 

im calling for 80-100 inches of digital snow this season

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

im calling for 80-100 inches of digital snow this season

Did you cancel winter yet?  

[Paleocene]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

im calling for 80-100 inches of digital snow this season

Every year I think that someone should do a running tally of the "total digital snow expected next 120 hours" and put it on a spreadsheet. Start on 12/1/25, then add a new row on 12/5/25, etc

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Every year I think that someone should do a running tally of the "total digital snow expected next 120 hours" and put it on a spreadsheet. Start on 12/1/25, then add a new row on 12/5/25, etc

I've had a similar thought... maybe I'll give it a whirl this year for DCA. 

Speaking of digital snow that's unlikely to happen, GFS is back to trying for Tuesday. Temps before, during, and after the "event" suggest it would be wet snow that doesn't really stick anywhere but it's the only game in town. Don't think another model has shown anything at all, so 

[Chris78]

50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I've had a similar thought... maybe I'll give it a whirl this year for DCA. 

Speaking of digital snow that's unlikely to happen, GFS is back to trying for Tuesday. Temps before, during, and after the "event" suggest it would be wet snow that doesn't really stick anywhere but it's the only game in town. Don't think another model has shown anything at all, so 

Canadian and Icon both have the system but it scoots south of us. As depicted the northern tier could get on the board with the GFS scenario. 

Below freezing along the M/D line overnight and only mid 30s by  Tuesday afternoon. 

[bncho]

56 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I've had a similar thought... maybe I'll give it a whirl this year for DCA. 

Speaking of digital snow that's unlikely to happen, GFS is back to trying for Tuesday. Temps before, during, and after the "event" suggest it would be wet snow that doesn't really stick anywhere but it's the only game in town. Don't think another model has shown anything at all, so 

we have a chance... 

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Canadian and Icon both have the system but it scoots south of us. As depicted the northern tier could get on the board with the GFS scenario. 

Below freezing along the M/D line overnight and only mid 30s by  Tuesday afternoon. 

Euro tries as well but it's too north for most people

[NorthArlington101]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro tries as well but it's too north for most people

Yeah, right when I say the GFS has no company, the EURO pretty much spits out the same outcome. Temps are still bad... wouldn't exactly expect any of this to stick, but it's interesting. If the moisture didn't get totally shredded from 126 - > 132 it might've had more blues.

[WEATHER53]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good news and bad news 

The bad news is, models took away the prolonged/sustained west-based -NAO that it had been showing, the last few runs. 

The good news is, around the turn of the month they are developing a strong -WPO pattern with +PNA underneath of it -- a Pacific based cold pattern that should put much of the CONUS below average to start off December

0z GEFS mean hr384

Hopefully we are not beginning the delayed but…crap that have so crippled the models in winter forecasting 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[bncho]

For the 11/17-18 system, EPS shows a weak but not insignificant 11 out of 50 hits (22%) for at least one of the airports in this forum.

[Alfoman]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

For the 11/17-18 system, EPS shows a weak but not insignificant 11 out of 50 hits (22%) for at least one of the airports in this forum.

Would absolutely love some TV snow to start the season if we could get some wet flakes to fly...