November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[powderfreak]

lol.

It unloaded last night and is still dumping on the hill.  Nothing really in the backyard and a few miles away getting smoked.

[jsw]

12 hours ago, dendrite said:

At the ASOS, is where he spent most of his days.

Thank you for bringing me on topic!

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Was hoping to see snow on my birthday.  Sadly  only virga this morning on radar.

Hey man Happy Birthday hope all is well.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

lol.

It unloaded last night and is still dumping on the hill.  Nothing really in the backyard and a few miles away getting smoked.

Now that's a slant stick. Zonties!

[Hoth]

10 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

No thread for Geoff Fox?

I was extremely saddened to hear of his passing. I have fond memories of Christmas parties with him and Nancy Aborn when I was a kid. Nice guy.

[alex]

2” overnight but still 5 at the stake 

[CoastalWx]

6z euro AI is sort of what I was hoping to see for any wintry chance in SNE. Temps are borderline, but that’s how you would do it. Day 9-10 so you know the rules….but just pointing out the setup. 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, jsw said:

Thank you for bringing me on topic!

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro AI is sort of what I was hoping to see for any wintry chance in SNE. Temps are borderline, but that’s how you would do it. Day 9-10 so you know the rules….but just pointing out the setup. 

Just need to see the same model output in the 2-4 day range

[dryslot]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

lol.

It unloaded last night and is still dumping on the hill.  Nothing really in the backyard and a few miles away getting smoked.

This is going to trigger DIT.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah maybe.  It's a tweener system.   It's in between teleconnectors, wedged in that timing between more major or obvious signals.  If it is even real, confidence will come down to handling the daily noise.   I mean, when it is resulting/connected to larger mass field change, confidence in actually having 'something' on the charts can be assessed at longer leads... But that thing's pretty invisible to the indices. 

Tweeners are real though.  They can sting.  "Little critters that bite" are tweeners. Or like the 1997 Dec 23 snow bomb storm was a tweener.  I saw 16" from that one.

[DavisStraight]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

lol.

It unloaded last night and is still dumping on the hill.  Nothing really in the backyard and a few miles away getting smoked.

What's the elevation at your house?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah maybe.  It's a tweener system.   It's in between teleconnectors, wedged in that timing between more major or obvious signals.  If it is even real, confidence will come down to handling the daily noise.   I mean, when it is resulting from larger mass field change, confidence in actually having 'something' on the charts can be assessed at longer leads... but that thing pretty invisible to the indices.  Tweeners are real though.  They can sting. 

Yeah, by no means am I suggesting it will happen, it was one of those things that I was envisioning that maybe we can sneak in with the block helping him provide some cold air, especially for the interior.

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is going to trigger DIT.

6” of heavy pasty snow at the office.

9” at the upper plot.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

6” of heavy pasty snow at the office.

9” at the upper plot.

Love this, What a great winter scene, Off to a good start this year where it suppose to be at this time.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, by no means am I suggesting it will happen, it was one of those things that I was envisioning that maybe we can sneak in with the block helping him provide some cold air, especially for the interior.

yeah I added a couple examples of in-betweeners.    Feb 2002 10" in 3.5 hours along the Pike E of ORH and throughout Boston proper, from a flat vort max rippling through. It was so flat that there was but a west wind while it was happening. Forced NWS to go from a partly sunny with flurries forecast to a Winter Storm warning cut-in now-cast adjustment in a scrambling media effort.  That's definitively showing that timing crucial variables can generate fun stuff and not be well modeled. 

Then there was Dec 23 1997 ...one of my favorites.  

It's close to my heart because I was interning with Harvey Leonard that semester, and I remember telling him the day before that I was suspicious about the setup. The ( then ) ETA FOUS grid, ( a dead art form) had a vertical profile over Logan something like +2|+1|-3   ... which corresponds to 34.5 F at 980 mb, 33 F at 900 mb, at 27 at 800.   The VV column was like +22 ...  whaa  Uh, that's a pig ton of implied upward motion. Underneath which it was dropping over a half inch of QPF.  All rain didn't add up in my mind.  Should have no problem having fall rates of snow over come that gossamer lower warmth.  Yet, NWS was forecasting cold rain inside of 128, with 1-3" of wet glop in the Worcester Hills.  At a larger synopsis, there was a small but important +PP sitting over N Maine while this event was approaching in the guidance - this was showing up as damming in the surface pressure contours.  I told him more snow. 

So Acton Ma, and I awoke around 7:30 or 8 am to slate gray blue tinted light and flurries at 19 F...  umm.  What happened was it remained like James Webb Telescope clear until about 5:15. This allowed the region to radiate with exquisite proficiency, generating in situ pasty cold - probably deeper than machine or man anticipated.  Then, just before dawn, the cirrostratus leaf edge abruptly advanced over and cold capped.   800 mb ( mind you ) was already less than 0C, and there we were; we had an integrated gelid thermal profile with no way to switch the column. 

I set my coffee down, most curious what the radar must be showing, but just then my primitive Captain Kirk flip phone captured my attention, "You have 14 new messages".  It was this guy I knew that worked at Aldin Electronics( long defunct ) - he was in the EPERB department, which was a weather monitoring tech for marine.  First and foremost, he and I were in a dead heat for weather dweebiest contest and the mother fucker beat me to it.  At his urgency I opened the radar and it was 60 dbz returns over an area twice the size of fuckum Rhode Island over eastern CT up to the Pike. That globular region was surrounded by 30 to 50s. Yellows and fiery oranges you'd see in Great Plains MCCs.  The deep green leading edge was just then arriving overhead.  "OH shit!" I leaped to my feet and rush to the window; the flurries abruptly had indeed become steady snow. Tiny little uniform aggregates reducing the visibility abruptly.   "That isn't just bright banding or sleet. Oh my god"

An hour later, visibility was   0    not 1000 feet where ASOS might only say so.  It was 0    Could not see the tree in the front yard.  So okay ...maybe visibility was technically 20 feet.  I saw 7" fall in a single hour in that as the thunderstorm colored rad blob moved over head. And the snow texture never deviated. The temperature did rise over the course of the event but never rose above 27.  A 16.5", most of which fell in 4 hours, locked down two days before Xmas.  Yeah, we pulled a white one that year!  Straight down.  No wind.  So dense that there was no sound except the gritty crumbling of tiny aggregates shattering down your shoulders, in 0 visibility.  

I'd never seen anything like that. It was unique.  I've seen 0 or close to 0 visibility on several occasions.  Wind was usually a part of those. This had nothing but a single expression: choke snow fall rates.  You know ... we have this expression in our vernacular, "positive bust"  These, like the February 2002 one at the intro to this, and this one, are so extreme... it's probably more apt to say they were "blind busts"  as in... no fuckin' clue ahead of time. This particular one, Dec 23 1997, actually dumped 23" in N. Middlesex Co, also ... all of which occurred in 4-6 hours.  Usually as a weather dweeb ...I would have been put off by the notion that I missed the max, but given to shear specter in surreal fuck-up for better forecasting ...I was just too happy to notice. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Exchanging emails with Harv….

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

6” of heavy pasty snow at the office.

9” at the upper plot.

Sweet as Jeff said this is how you run a November 

[weatherwiz]

I hope we get smoked for the first half of winter and then warm up in March. I've been thinking about this lately. As much as I hate the cold, its tolerable in December, January, and February but by the time March rolls around...I'm done, fed up, ready for warmth. Hoping for about 20-25" in December and January, then 30-40" in February, then off to the 70's in March. 

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, Hoth said:

I was extremely saddened to hear of his passing. I have fond memories of Christmas parties with him and Nancy Aborn when I was a kid. Nice guy.

Geoff Nancy and Dr Mel the WTNH trio for me as a kid and if memory serves correct Keith Kountz and Mark Davis were news anchors at the time and Mike Bogaslowski who was always in YOUR CORNER!

Such good memories 

[codfishsnowman]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I hope we get smoked for the first half of winter and then warm up in March. I've been thinking about this lately. As much as I hate the cold, its tolerable in December, January, and February but by the time March rolls around...I'm done, fed up, ready for warmth. Hoping for about 20-25" in December and January, then 30-40" in February, then off to the 70's in March. 

February is ambitious, liking the enthusiasm.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

February is ambitious, liking the enthusiasm.

Go big or go home and since I'm pretty much always home, may as well go big

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

What's the elevation at your house?

750ft down here in the river bottom.