Thursday washout: much needed rain

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z NBM:  finally a storm without a rug pull?!

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like we'll finally get a good autumn soaker. Even better, we're inside 60 hrs, so the chance of a last minute fail goes down.

[high risk]

Some sneaky severe potential Thursday midday or early afternoon as we enter the warm sector.   At the least, some elevated convection late Wednesday night into Thursday morning seems likely.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like we'll finally get a good autumn soaker. Even better, we're inside 60 hrs, so the chance of a last minute fail goes down.

There's still the "day of" fail though.

[NorthArlington101]

Without a yard to care about and biking work I really at this point root for it to b 70 degrees and sunny or snowing with no room in between. Hope this busts bigly!

[high risk]

38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Without a yard to care about and biking work I really at this point root for it to b 70 degrees and sunny or snowing with no room in between. Hope this busts bigly!

         We might actually get a good amount of rain (Wednesday night into early Thursday) AND have it hit 70 around midday Thursday.  

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z globals. Solid 1-2 inches. Sold!

[stormy]

My 12z 5 model blend for Augusta:  GFS 1.96",  ECM 1.88",  ECM AI 1.29",  GEM 2.50",  ICON 2.20"...............  Blend 1.96"

When the NBM incorporates the 12z models, it should increase from 1.50" 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NBM

[stormy]

57 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z NBM

Yes Will, the 18z NBM increased my QP from 1.50" to 1.75"    as I expected from 2 hrs. ago.

The NBM is easy to predict........................ 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM; windy and stormy Th. am on tap.

[wxmeddler]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM; windy and stormy Th. am on tap.

*Taps the signature.*

[Eskimo Joe]

NAM Nest insists on decent surface winds Thursday am commute.

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

*Taps the signature.*

That's really interesting! I tapped it......

Hope you guys get good soaking rains.

[stormy]

My 5 model blend dropped overnight from 1.96" to 1.44".                     NBM dropped from 1.75 to 1.20 as would be expected.

My sweetspot for significant rainfall seems to be 6 pm to 6 am.

I am running a deficit of 7.14" since August 1 !!  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Here come the last minute walkbacks

[MN Transplant]

10 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Here come the last minute walkbacks

The 12z HRRR is a trouncing for me.  Around 3".

[dailylurker]

17 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Here come the last minute walkbacks

Looks pretty solid to me. HRRR and NAM 3K both give the area 1-3" inches. 

[Jrlg1181]

41 temp 

Light rain falling

 

[BlizzardNole]

A nice 12-hour rainfall with 0.5 to 1.0 is just what I need with the grass seed starting to come up.  Some peeks of sun and 50

[WesternFringe]

21 hours ago, stormy said:

My 12z 5 model blend for Augusta:  GFS 1.96",  ECM 1.88",  ECM AI 1.29",  GEM 2.50",  ICON 2.20"...............  Blend 1.96"

When the NBM incorporates the 12z models, it should increase from 1.50" 

Where in Augusta?  It is a BIG county and the western part isn't forecast to get nearly as much as the eastern part of the county.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Here come the last minute walkbacks

If that happens Again then the model failures in winter have spread into the fall 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

Where in Augusta?  It is a BIG county and the western part isn't forecast to get nearly as much as the eastern part of the county.

Hello out west!  I was out there squirrel hunting yesterday morning. No luck as squirrels are few and far between this year.

This is east/central Augusta on the north side of Waynesboro. Late yesterday afternoon.

My latest 4 model blend of 12z today is 1.34".      Tonight should feature the main event.

 

[IronTy]

First flakes, I mean sprinkles, here. 

 

ETA - just looked at the game cam at the cabin and it's 39F there.  

[BlizzardNole]

42 minutes ago, stormy said:

Hello out west!  I was out there squirrel hunting yesterday morning. No luck as squirrels are few and far between this year.

This is east/central Augusta on the north side of Waynesboro. Late yesterday afternoon.

My latest 4 model blend of 12z today is 1.34".      Tonight should feature the main event.

 

Too bad you can't hunt in my neighborhood.  We must have about one tree demon squirrel for every 100 square feet.

[IronTy]

8 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Too bad you can't hunt in my neighborhood.  We must have about one tree demon squirrel for every 100 square feet.

We lease our land at the cabin to some neighboring hunters every year - it pays the property taxes and they give us about 50lbs of venison at the end of each season as well.  They're always wondering why we don't hunt out there.  

 

I tell them if I wanted to hunt I'd just do it from our home in Calvert.  I could easily take ten deer just shooting from my kitchen window if it were allowed.  They're everywhere.  

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z models:  rain incoming....no rug pull with this one.

[Weather Will]

For planning purposes, heaviest rains move in after sunset; looks like the morning rush will be a washout and the steady to heavy rain will move NE out of the area between late Th. Morning and mid afternoon.

[CAPE]

Hey y'all.. it's gonna rain!!

[SnowenOutThere]

50 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z models:  rain incoming....no rug pull with this one.

Genuinely curious as it always seems like the NAM 3k has the most orthographic precip out of all models always (including the other high res ones). Is it actually more accurate or is it overdoing it?