Thursday washout: much needed rain

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z NBM:  finally a storm without a rug pull?!

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like we'll finally get a good autumn soaker. Even better, we're inside 60 hrs, so the chance of a last minute fail goes down.

[high risk]

Some sneaky severe potential Thursday midday or early afternoon as we enter the warm sector.   At the least, some elevated convection late Wednesday night into Thursday morning seems likely.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like we'll finally get a good autumn soaker. Even better, we're inside 60 hrs, so the chance of a last minute fail goes down.

There's still the "day of" fail though.

[NorthArlington101]

Without a yard to care about and biking work I really at this point root for it to b 70 degrees and sunny or snowing with no room in between. Hope this busts bigly!

[high risk]

38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Without a yard to care about and biking work I really at this point root for it to b 70 degrees and sunny or snowing with no room in between. Hope this busts bigly!

         We might actually get a good amount of rain (Wednesday night into early Thursday) AND have it hit 70 around midday Thursday.  

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z globals. Solid 1-2 inches. Sold!

[stormy]

My 12z 5 model blend for Augusta:  GFS 1.96",  ECM 1.88",  ECM AI 1.29",  GEM 2.50",  ICON 2.20"...............  Blend 1.96"

When the NBM incorporates the 12z models, it should increase from 1.50" 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NBM

[stormy]

57 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z NBM

Yes Will, the 18z NBM increased my QP from 1.50" to 1.75"    as I expected from 2 hrs. ago.

The NBM is easy to predict........................ 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM; windy and stormy Th. am on tap.

[wxmeddler]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM; windy and stormy Th. am on tap.

*Taps the signature.*

[Eskimo Joe]

NAM Nest insists on decent surface winds Thursday am commute.

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

*Taps the signature.*

That's really interesting! I tapped it......

Hope you guys get good soaking rains.

[stormy]

My 5 model blend dropped overnight from 1.96" to 1.44".                     NBM dropped from 1.75 to 1.20 as would be expected.

My sweetspot for significant rainfall seems to be 6 pm to 6 am.

I am running a deficit of 7.14" since August 1 !!  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Here come the last minute walkbacks

[MN Transplant]

10 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Here come the last minute walkbacks

The 12z HRRR is a trouncing for me.  Around 3".

[dailylurker]

17 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Here come the last minute walkbacks

Looks pretty solid to me. HRRR and NAM 3K both give the area 1-3" inches. 

[Jrlg1181]

41 temp 

Light rain falling

 

[BlizzardNole]

A nice 12-hour rainfall with 0.5 to 1.0 is just what I need with the grass seed starting to come up.  Some peeks of sun and 50

[WesternFringe]

21 hours ago, stormy said:

My 12z 5 model blend for Augusta:  GFS 1.96",  ECM 1.88",  ECM AI 1.29",  GEM 2.50",  ICON 2.20"...............  Blend 1.96"

When the NBM incorporates the 12z models, it should increase from 1.50" 

Where in Augusta?  It is a BIG county and the western part isn't forecast to get nearly as much as the eastern part of the county.