Event Discussion-OBS uncertain tracking thread for possible moderate impact event 8A Thu-8A Fri 10/30-31. Mainly 1-3" rains, G 45-55 MPH-mainly coast, and high prob of at least minor coastal flooding - Thursday afternoon high tide cycle.

[lee59]

 wind gusting to 37mph

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Like a blizzard of leafs driving on 87 a bit ago.  Roads are hazardous with all the leafs on the ground.

I work up by you, happy I decided to wfh today.  Pouring here currently.

[Neblizzard]

Union county NJ deluge along with 40 mph winds.  Over an inch of rain so far. 

[MANDA]

Picked up just over an inch so far since 8am.  Event total thus far 1.53".  Winds blowing here but nothing really noteworthy in my neighborhood.  Gusts still in the 25 mph range.  Temp. 53.  Haven't had a day like this in a loooong time.  Have to say it is nice for a change.

[dWave]

Wind is crazy in lower Manhattan. I knew it'd be windy, but this is more than I anticipated especially with no wind advisory.

Dunno if it's just a localized thing here with the buildings and the water, but it's really overperforming.

[Dark Star]

24 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Union county NJ deluge along with 40 mph winds.  Over an inch of rain so far. 

Around 3/4" in Garwood, central Union County.  Rain intensity is variable, sometimes coming down at 50 degree angles, other times not so much.  Wind light at times to moderate...

[weathermedic]

Trees and power lines down along Hylan Blvd near Buffalo St on Staten Island.

[MJO812]

Heavy rain and winds here 

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Apparent storm damage on TV in the Bronx.  1200 meters out on Staten Island.  now is the time for 45 MPH+ wind gusts n our area...next 5 hours; except later e Li. 

Gusting 46 mph already or here as of 135 pm strongest so far.  

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F2389&unit=0&timetype=GMT

[wthrmn654]

54 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I work up by you, happy I decided to wfh today.  Pouring here currently.

Now go get dressed! Stop sitting around in your boxers

[wthrmn654]

I'm going reach out to nws thru NWSchat on slack.  I agree winds are deft wilder and more potent then even i had expected. 

[winterwx21]

Heaviest rain of the event moving in now. It's really pouring out there. Looks like not much more after this heavy downpour passes, but I'm up to 2 inches of rain now. 

[ForestHillWx]

Nasty squall line N/S moving to my east; good luck all!

[wthrmn654]

Looking at the NWS forecast for my area, looking at the hourly#s they don't even have gusts inputted oddly enough.  

[steve392]

Absolutely pouring in Mahwah while at store.  

[wthrmn654]

48 mph 155

[wthrmn654]

Cross sound ferry has just suspended all ferry service as of 2 pm

[forkyfork]

 

[wdrag]

Widespread Gusts on ASOS NYC metro airports 40-46 KT past couple of hours. 

[wthrmn654]

Power just went off then back on. Fairly quickly too weirdly enough

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Nasty squall line N/S moving to my east; good luck all!

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=DIX-N0Q-1-48-100-usa-rad

 

 

[SI Mailman]

49 mph gust at Great Kills Harbor

[wdrag]

Max gust on NYS mesonet sites about 5-8 MPH less than ASOS max gusts.  

Officially minor flood at Sandy Hook. FS 6.7". they are at 7.15 bobbing around and may go up and bother 0.3' through there high tide cycle now. Attached...

 

Also 10-13,000 meters without power now in all three states of NJ, NY, PA. Wind related. 

[wdrag]

I will post a general modeling summary after this event is over going back to the original guidance available Sunday and from CPC a week ago.  Initial lessons: GFS max wind gusts too light with EC and NAM gusts better. Let's remember for the future on easterly wind events.

[Sundog]

48 minutes ago, dWave said:

Wind is crazy in lower Manhattan. I knew it'd be windy, but this is more than I anticipated especially with no wind advisory.

Dunno if it's just a localized thing here with the buildings and the water, but it's really overperforming.

The wind is ferocious in Queens

[Poker2015]

1.4" and pretty much over now.

[wdrag]

Rainfall 1-2" in NJ except Sussex County and a few spots on the coast 3/4-1". NYC around 0.8 so far except about 1.5 Staten Island. 

[psv88]

I think a wind advisory was warranted 

[wthrmn654]

Per nws, there evaluating with an update shortly. 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Per nws, there evaluating with an update shortly. 

A little late now!   They will issue one for tomorrow though