November 2025 OBS Discussion

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

The entire premise is incorrect.  There was plenty of climate change back then. CO2 concentrations were already up to 310 ppm by the early 1930s, compared to a pre-industrial mean of 270-280 ppm. And methane was already up to ~1100 ppb, from 700 ppb pre-industrial average. CO2 follows a logarithmic curve, so the amount of warming from the early/mid 19th century to the 1930s would be about the same amount of warming that has occurred since 2000 - actually more significant when you factor in methane concentrations. There is nothing in the history of New York City to suggest that the snow drought during that period would have occurred in the absence of human caused warming.

15 below in 1934 for the city 6 below in 1933.. minus 1 minus 3 in the 1930's early 1940's  8 below 4 below..

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

15 below in 1934 for the city 6 below in 1933.. minus 1 minus 3 in the 1930's early 1940's  8 below 4 below..

Yes, it's warmer today. But the 1930s were quite warm too, especially in North America. So warm, in fact, that certain people like to constantly bring them up to "rebut" climate change. A few notable cold snaps don't change that fact.

New York City's moving 30-year mean annual snowfall was pretty steady between 32 and 34 inches until the mid 1920s - and that's generally with measuring the new fallen depth, not snowboards and 6 hourly or more frequent measurements. So, the "snow drought" from the late 1920s and early/mid 1930s was certainly a big departure from the long-term climatology.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region.

Temperatures will again top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s through the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,385th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +5.21 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.534 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.2° (0.8° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[wdrag]

Probably threading wind advisory criteria early Saturday for Noon-10PM Sunday,  45-50 MPH gusts. Minor impact except air travel and where a wind blown branch crosses the road. Slot looks BGM-MPO through NYC-LI. 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Wow didn't realize the late 20s early 30s sucked that badly for snow in nyc. I wonder if at that time there were doomers like bluewave saying the mean may permanently change to 15" per year lol.

Pointing out identifiable shifts in the climate has nothing to do with doom. I use it to set the range of parameters for my forecasts. Warming temperatures and storm tracks over time mean less snow. The long term snowfall trend in NYC has been down with steady winter warming.

As the winters have been warming we reached a sweet spot for heavy snows between 1993-1994 and 2017-2018. The temperature snd storm tracks were just right along with the increased precipitation for heavy snows.

But you will also notice during those years that we had very few average years which were common prior to the 1990s. It was an all or nothing snowfall pattern with great years over 30” and 40” with other years around 15” or under.

Past snow droughts were a function of drier winters which were cyclical. But warming is a long term trend due to increasing CO2 emissions. Plus we have experienced non-linear shifts which have abrupt and not gradual.

So I have a few long range snowfall scenarios for NYC going forward.

Scenario #1 is that the warmer storm track shift and less snow since 2019 is what we will have going forward with NYC shifting to under 20” of snowfall. A few seasons will reach average and above but most will be below the mid 20s.

Scenario #2 is a bounce off the lows with more frequent snowy seasons but well below the 2010-2018 close to 40” average in NYC. This would be a short term pattern before the lower seasons begin dominating again.

The lowest skill scenario #3 would be a VEI-7 or VEI-8 volcanic eruption which would induce a volcanic winter for 3-7 years with much colder and snowier conditions. Since these eruptions are no easily forecast and can have hundreds or thousands of years between events.

So unless we get a historic volcanic event which isn’t easily to forecast, my guess is a  a choice between scenario #1 and scenario #2. 
 

 

[lee59]

Coldest morning this season here, dipped into the high 20s

[SACRUS]

 

40 / 31 mostly cloudy.  Cooler today, Warmer sunday ahead of the front before cooling down Mon/Tue.  By Wed (11/19) ridge builds in and warmer overall the next 7 - 10 days beyond there with the warmest stretches 2 days 11/21-11/22 , 11/24-11/25. Still see the cold building to the north ahead of the month close and could setup a much colder open to next month for a period.  Nov loks to finish solidly above normal as a whole for the month +2 or more.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in EWR
NYC: 80 (1993) - latest 80 degree reading at NYC
LGA: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in LGA
JFK: 77 (1993)


Lows: 

EWR: 18 (1933)
NYC: 20 (1967)
LGA: 22 (1967)
JFK: 20 (1967)

Historical:

 

 

1900: A record lake-effect snowstorm at Watertown, NY produced 45 inches in 24 hours. The storm total was 49 inches. (14th-15th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
 

 

1959: Cheyenne, WY recorded their greatest daily temperature change. After a high of 56°, a powerful cold front passed and by midnight that night the temperature had plummeted to -5°, a change of 61 degrees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1961: Between the 13th and 15th occurred the earliest heavy snow recorded to fall in western Texas. A general 4 to 20 inches of snowfall whitened the area; 20 inches fell in Hartley, 16 inches in Romero and 70 mile an hour winds were reported in El Paso. In El Paso, a six year old girl was hurt when a 5 inch piece of glass (splinter from a broken window) was blown through her body. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

 

1964 - With the help of a fresh three inch cover of snow, the temperature at Ely, NV, dipped to 15 degrees below zero to establish an all-time record low for the month of November. That record of -15 degrees was later equalled on the 19th of November in 1985. (The Weather Channel)

 

1967: A surprise snow and ice coating paralyzed Boston during the evening rush hour. New England had 1 foot of snow in north central and northeastern Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1974 - A storm produced 15 inches of snow at the Buffalo, NY, airport, and 30 inches on the south shore of Lake Erie. (David Ludlum)

1986 - An early season cold wave set more than 200 records from the northwestern U.S. to the east coast over a seven day period. For some places it proved to be the coldest weather of the winter season. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - The first major snowstorm of the season hit the Southern and Central Rockies, producing 12 inches at the Brian Head ski resort in Utah overnight. Strong and gusty winds associated with the storm reached 52 mph at Ruidoso NM. In the eastern U.S., the temperature at Washington D.C. soared to 68 degrees, just three days after being buried under more than a foot of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1987: On November 15 and 16, intense thunderstorms rumbled through the South-Central US producing 49 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi during a 34 hour period. Of the 49 tornadoes, four were F3, 12 were F2, 27 were F1, and 6 were F0. These severe storms caused 11 deaths and 303 injuries. This storm system also brought heavy rain to central Louisiana where five stations recorded over 10 inches in 24 hours. The highest amount was 14.22 inches at Olla on the 16.

1988 - A massive storm produced snow and gusty winds in the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Show Low AZ, and Donner Summit, located in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, was buried under 23 inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked parts of California, with 3.19 inches reported at Blue Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed east of the Rockies. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as New England, and readings in the 80s were reported across the southeast quarter of the nation. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second time in the month Dallas/Fort Worth TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees. The high of 91 degrees at Waco TX was their warmest of record for so late in the season. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Wyoming overnight, with a foot of snow reported at Cody, and ten inches at Yellowstone Park. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: A heat wave gave a 83° reading at National Airport and was the latest >80° reading ever recorded in November. (Ref. Weather Records KDCA ) The highest temperature ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November was 86 °F that occurred on three dates. The other two of these dates were on November 1st in 1974 and 1950. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC)

1994: After a serpentine track through the Caribbean Sea, Tropical Storm Gordon began affecting south Florida while located off the northeast coast of Cuba. Gordon moved slowly west-northwest, reaching the lower Florida Keys late on the 15th. On the 16th, Gordon turned northeast and accelerated, moving inland near Fort Myers in the morning and exiting into the Atlantic just north of Vero Beach in the late afternoon. After becoming a hurricane off the coast of North Carolina, then weakening to a tropical depression and moving south and west, Gordon moved ashore a second time just north of Melbourne on the 21st. The maximum sustained wind was 53 mph at Virginia Key in east Dade County, and the minimum central pressure was 995 millibars shortly after initial landfall near Fort Myers. Gordon directly caused 8 fatalities and 43 injuries. Gordon's total damage is estimated around $400 million. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1996: An intense, lake effect snow event came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, Ohio was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six-day period. Edinboro, Pennsylvania checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, Ohio and 42 inches fell at Sherman, New York

1996: One of the longest and most intense early season lake effect snow squall events came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, OH was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six day period. Edinboro, PA checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, OH and 42 inches fell at Sherman, NY. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: A week of torrential rains brought serious flooding to parts of Texas. 13 inches of rain fell across parts of south Texas, breaking records in Austin and San Antonio. A resourceful woman in Travis County, Texas drove long nails into a tree to create steps for her to climb into the upper parts of the tree, escaping the floodwaters. 8.66 inches of rain fell in 24 hours at Austin, TX. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Texas on the 15th through the 18th: Several days of heavy rainfall in the Texas Hill Country dumps 5 to 10 inches, producing widespread flooding. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2005: Severe thunderstorms produced over 30 tornadoes in 6 states, resulting in one fatality and at least 35 injuries (Associated Press). Some of the worst damage occurred in Henry county, Tennessee, where numerous homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2006: Strong winds cause severe damage at a skating rink in Montgomery, Alabama where more than 30 preschoolers were playing. Two children suffered injuries but there were no fatalities. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

2008: Santa Ana winds blew from this day through the 19th bringing record highs. Winds gusted over 70 mph in the Santa Ana Mountains and over 60 mph in the northern Inland Empire. The Freeway Complex Fire burned from Corona through Chino Hills and Yorba Linda. This fire destroyed or damaged over 300 homes and four businesses. More than 30,000 acres burned and more than 40,000 evacuated. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[SACRUS]

 

Nov 19 - 27th looks warm / very warm vs normal with perhaps a drastic change by the start or early into next month

 

[SACRUS]

 

It doesnt rain in southern California 

 

 

 

[STORMANLI]

Albert Hammond 1972

"It Never Rains In Southern California"

Seems It Never Rains In Southern California

Seems I've Often Heard That Kind Of Talk Before

It Never Rains In California

But Girl, Don't They Warn Ya ?

It Pours, Man, It Pours

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

It doesnt rain in southern California 

 

 

 

Iowa at USC, 3:30pm EST, could be a fun watch. 

[psv88]

28.0. First hard freeze. She’s dead, Jim

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

It doesnt rain in southern California 

 

 

 

amazing how many la nina winters turn out to be wet for southern california..

[Santa Claus]

the sun feels so dim and weak

[Sundog]

21 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

the sun feels so dim and weak

It's about time 

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pointing out identifiable shifts in the climate has nothing to do with doom. I use it to set the range of parameters for my forecasts. Warming temperatures and storm tracks over time mean less snow. The long term snowfall trend in NYC has been down with steady winter warming.

As the winters have been warming we reached a sweet spot for heavy snows between 1993-1994 and 2017-2018. The temperature snd storm tracks were just right along with the increased precipitation for heavy snows.

But you will also notice during those years that we had very few average years which were common prior to the 1990s. It was an all or nothing snowfall pattern with great years over 30” and 40” with other years around 15” or under.

Past snow droughts were a function of drier winters which were cyclical. But warming is a long term trend due to increasing CO2 emissions. Plus we have experienced non-linear shifts which have abrupt and not gradual.

So I have a few long range snowfall scenarios for NYC going forward.

Scenario #1 is that the warmer storm track shift and less snow since 2019 is what we will have going forward with NYC shifting to under 20” of snowfall. A few seasons will reach average and above but most will be below the mid 20s.

Scenario #2 is a bounce off the lows with more frequent snowy seasons but well below the 2010-2018 close to 40” average in NYC. This would be a short term pattern before the lower seasons begin dominating again.

The lowest skill scenario #3 would be a VEI-7 or VEI-8 volcanic eruption which would induce a volcanic winter for 3-7 years with much colder and snowier conditions. Since these eruptions are no easily forecast and can have hundreds or thousands of years between events.

So unless we get a historic volcanic event which isn’t easily to forecast, my guess is a  a choice between scenario #1 and scenario #2. 
 

 

Sort of opposes the warmer temperatures means more snows theory.  Not to say that there cannot be occasional heavy snow storms...

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, Santa Claus said:

the sun feels so dim and weak

One reason my mother never called me son...

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Santa Claus said:

the sun feels so dim and weak

Yes Santa

Now bring me a snowy winter for Christmas.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will turn briefly milder with highs generally reaching the lower and middle 50s before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region.

In the wake of the cold front's passage, a period of below normal temperatures will prevail through at least Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Highs will be mainly in themiddle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s.

A milder pattern could develop the latter part of next week. Some rain is possible.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,386th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +6.42 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.018 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.