November 2025 OBS Discussion

[TheClimateChanger]

55 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

As we head into winter, it's a good time to rewind and recognize the ongoing HISTORIC snowfall drought in the Big Apple.

Currently, the last 3 years are the least snowy such period on record, with just 22.7 inches. Central Park would need to see at least 5.5" of snow before the end of the year to surpass 1997-1999's paltry tally of 28.1 inches. Interestingly, 1869 had more snowfall with just 1 calendar year's worth of data, so even though data does not exist for 1867 or 1868, we can say this is the least snowy 3-year period through at least 1867-1869. Given the so-called little ice age ended in the middle of the 19th century, I think it highly unlikely there would have been a less snowy 3-year stretch prior to that date. So this is probably the least snowy 3 years in New York City history.

Looking at the 5-year snow drought, not much better. Excluding period's with partial data (1865-1869 & 1866-1870, interestingly, the period 1867-1871, with just 3 years is not among the least snowy), only 1928-1932 and 1927-1931 reported less snowfall. Snowfall measurement techniques have been amended since that era, so they might have been somewhat higher if measured with today's procedures - perhaps 15-20 percent, per NCAR. An additional 2.8" of snowfall is needed to surpass current 3rd place (2020-2024). In any event, clearly the least snowy 5 year period in anyone's lifetime on here. Very impressive.

Doing a little better on the 10-year, and anything more than 2.3" of snow by December 31 would shift the Big Apple further down the list. Currently, in 8th place for least snowy 10-year periods excluding periods with partial data (since 1866-1875). A rough go of it in the late 80s an early 90s, but certainly moving up the ranks now. And with a relatively snowy 2016-2018 period, with a whopping 110.3" of snow, or more than half of the snow in the last 10 years, we will need to throw up some BIG numbers to avoid dropping lower to replace those snowy years. Indeed, the next 3 years would need to average nearly 30" of snow per year just to avoid plummeting to the least snowy 10-year period in 2019-2028. If the next 3 years are instead relatively unsnowy, we could be in a situation where we will be poised to absolutely SHATTER the 10-year futility record by 2028.

[IrishRob17]

.63" since last night making for .99" since Friday, temp and dew dropping now, 45/43

[TheClimateChanger]

On 11/9/2025 at 11:02 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Great Lakes have been getting the heaviest snows with all these cutter and hugger storm tracks in recent years. 
 

 

Certainly hasn't seemed that way with the historical snowfall drought in Cleveland and many other Great Lakes locations:

[steve392]

Been having some moderate to heavy rains since 1130.  Just had double rainbow appear. 

[MJO812]

Down to 47 here 

[Brian5671]

some downpours here this pm. I think we got more this afternoon than yesterday/last night.

[MJO812]

Down to 43 here

Big change from earlier today 

[TJW014]

4 hours of fishing this afternoon, only had a 6" fluke to show for my effort. Cold night in store. Not going to be fin for the dawn fish frenzy tomorrow

[Sundog]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Down to 43 here

Big change from earlier today 

41 here, dropping quick

[ForestHillWx]

Parents in Lexington, VA report snow flurries. 

[dmillz25]

Already down to 40 here

[SACRUS]

 

 

Coldest since April 9 or Mar 9th

[sussexcountyobs]

Light snow falling. Breezy. Cars and shaded grass and wood surfaces getting white. 31.8°

[MJO812]

Down to 40

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Down to 40

39 here, temps will be much closer to eachother area wide tonight. 

[psv88]

39 here. Maybe some flurries tomorrow 

[jm1220]

Down to 36. Feels frigid with the wind. 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Down to 36. Feels frigid with the wind. 

Yeah, just took the dogs out.  37 with 30 mph gusts.  

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, just took the dogs out.  37 with 30 mph gusts.  

38 here, very uniform with CAA

[psv88]

Doubt we go below freezing here. Probably level off 33/34. 38 now. 

[donsutherland1]

This evening, the temperature fell into the 30s for the first time this season in New York City. Last year's first such reading occurred on November 13th. The 1991-2020 normal first such date is October 24th. 

The temperature will likely bottom out near freezing in New York City. The normal first freeze occurs on November 21st. Outside the City, widespread 20s are likely. Highs tomorrow will only reach the upper 30s and lower 40s. Parts of the region could see some snow flurries or even some snow showers.

It will then turn somewhat milder. Wednesday through Friday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +3.94 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.955 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

39 here, temps will be much closer to eachother area wide tonight. 

Yep 38 here

 

[MJO812]

Flurries tomorrow 

[sussexcountyobs]

No more snow falling. Breezy. Cloudy.

Temp. 30.1°