November 2025 OBS Discussion

[LoboLeader1]

Bottomed out at 31F here.

 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Bridgeport, Islip, and White Plains all experienced their first freeze of the season. 

Today's Low Temperature and First Freeze Data:
Bridgeport: 32°; Last Year: November 13; Normal: November 4
Islip: 32°; Last Year: November 10; Normal: October 28
White Plains: 32°; Last Year: November 13; Normal October 28

Farmingdale too, low there was 31.

[Brian5671]

heavy frost here-growing season definitely done 

[SACRUS]

 

40 / 25 off a season low of 28.  A bit cloudy today with some clearing later.   Warmer next two days before front pushes is as trough digs into the area.  Much below Mon - Wed next week and perhaps we'll see how close it gets to the 2017/2019 Nov airmass.  Beyond there moderating back to / near normal.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 81 (2022)
NYC: 78 (1938)
LGA: 78 (2022)
JFK: 80 (2022)


Lows:

EWR:  28 (1931)
NYC: 29 (1930)
LGA: 32 (1962)
JFK: 25 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1940 - The Galloping Gertie bridge at Tacoma, WA, collapsed in strong winds resulting in a six million dollar loss, just four months after the grand opening of the new bridge. The winds caused the evenly sized spans of the bridge to begin to vibrate until the central one finally collapsed. From that point on bridges were constructed with spans of varying size. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened on July 1st, 1940, spanned the Puget Sound from Gig Harbor to Tacoma. At the time of the opening, the bridge was the third-longest suspension bridge in the world, covering nearly 6,000 feet. Before the bridge opened, high winds would cause the bridge to move vertically, giving the nickname Galloping Gertie. On this day in 1940, winds of 40 mph caused the bridge to collapse because of the physical phenomenon known as aeroelastic flutter. Click HERE for more information from Scott Sistak from KOMONews.

1951 - At 7 AM a blinding flash, a huge ball of fire, and a terrific roar occurred over parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, caused by a disintegrating meteor. Windows were broken in and near Hinton OK by the concussion. (The Weather Channel)

 

1951: At 7 AM, a blinding flash, a massive ball of fire, and a terrific roar occurred over parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, caused by a disintegrating meteor. Windows were broken in and near Hinton, Oklahoma, by the concussion.

1957: A historic tornado outbreak impacted southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Ten people were killed.

1986 - An early season blizzard struck the Northern Plains Region. North Dakota took the brunt of the storm with wind gusts to 70 mph, and snowfall totals ranged up to 25 inches at Devils Lake. (Storm Data)

1987 - Heavy snow fell across parts of eastern New York State overnight, with twelve inches reported at the town of Piseco, located in the Mohawk Valley. A storm in the southwestern U.S. left nine inches of snow at the Winter Park ski resort in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires reduced visibilities to less than a mile at some locations from North Carolina to Ohio and Pennsylvania. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued across the state of Texas. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco and Del Rio with readings of 92 degrees. McAllen was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 96 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Shortly after daybreak strong thunderstorms developed over a narrow, but almost stationary, east-west band across New Orleans, in southeastern Louisiana. As a result, heavy rains persisted over the same area until mid afternoon before tapering off, and triggered flash flooding across a five county area. Eight to twelve inch rains deluged the area between 9 AM and 6 PM, and totals for the 48 hour period ending at 7 AM on the 8th ranged up to 19.78 inches, between Lake Lexy and Lake Borgne. Approximately 6000 homes in the area reported water damage. The rainfall total for November of 19.81 inches at New Orleans was their highest total for any given month of the year. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2011: A powerful storm system moving through the southern Great Plains produced tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding across parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas on November 7-8, 2011. The system initially produced numerous thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding over portions of south-central Oklahoma during the late evening of November 6th and early morning of November 7th. Rainfall totals of 5-9 inches were reported across Jefferson, Carter, and Murray counties.

 

2012: A Nor’Easter brought several inches of snow to the Northeast. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches were typical with locally higher amounts.

[lee59]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

29.9 in Muttontown & 30.3 in Syosset this morning. Did Nassau have any freeze or frost warnings issued? 

No, they usually lump Nassau in with the city. I questioned the NWS about this and the reply was that they look at the over all picture. Another words some of Nassau (mostly eastern and northern areas) may have frost but most of it won't. The larger area that won't is southern, southwestern and western Nassau that is more urban. I don't know why advisories have to stop at county lines.

[FPizz]

26.8 on all 3 stations last night.  The leaves dropped like crazy with that freeze.  They dropped in like a circle under the trees since there was no wind.  I should take a half day and rake them before they blow all over.

[chrisNJ]

Hit 25.3 last night on the Tempest. 

[NorthShoreWx]

30.0⁰ low here this morning.  AoB 32⁰ for 4 hours.  That's usually not enough to kill much, but I haven't checked the garden yet.

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The models have had a big shift in the last several days. We are going to get strong blocking next few week. I just posted in the main ENSO thread. Could also be some type of disruption to the SPV.

The million dollar question is if it will in some way be strong enough to shift this Pacific Jet pattern heading into December leading to more benchmark tracks?

December is the key for us during La Niñas. Out of the last 15 La Ninas, the 4” snowfall rule has worked for NYC, LGA, and EWR 14 times. Under 4” in December went onto below normal snowfall like last winter. But if we can find a way to get over 4” this December then we would have a shot a an average to above average snowfall season.

We should know pretty soon in December since all the snow has been frontloaded before December 21st since 2011. Not sure yet if this will work out in our favor, but at least we have something to watch. 
 

 

Do you have any thoughts regarding the last 4 runs of the CFS for next week?

[Stormlover74]

Anywhere from .1 to .5 of rain tonight

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

No, they usually lump Nassau in with the city. I questioned the NWS about this and the reply was that they look at the over all picture. Another words some of Nassau (mostly eastern and northern areas) may have frost but most of it won't. The larger area that won't is southern, southwestern and western Nassau that is more urban. I don't know why advisories have to stop at county lines.

Northern Nassau is its own zone and should’ve been under an advisory or even freeze warning. Northern/southern LI is defined by the L.I.E. which is where the transition zone often is between microclimates. The barrier islands were in the 40s so definitely no frost there. 

[psv88]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Farmingdale too, low there was 31.

Almost never see FRG colder than ISP on winter nights. 

[forkyfork]

still waiting for my first frost. the lantana is going strong

[WestBabylonWeather]

My backyard was at 30 as per the ambient station

[uofmiami]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

No, they usually lump Nassau in with the city. I questioned the NWS about this and the reply was that they look at the over all picture. Another words some of Nassau (mostly eastern and northern areas) may have frost but most of it won't. The larger area that won't is southern, southwestern and western Nassau that is more urban. I don't know why advisories have to stop at county lines.

It was a swing a miss from OKX with Nassau IMO.  We have a North & South zones for a reason.  Clearly North zones had frost and freeze dependent on location, especially further E in the N zone.

[Krs4Lfe]

Reached around 36 or so here in Bayside in northeast Queens. Looks to be a bit colder than that for Veterans day morning, should have widespread frost for most of us that day. Are we still slated for a big warmup after that? A few days ago, the models were looking like widespread 60s for the mid month warmup. 

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Reached around 36 or so here in Bayside in northeast Queens. Looks to be a bit colder than that for Veterans day morning, should have widespread frost for most of us that day. Are we still slated for a big warmup after that? A few days ago, the models were looking like widespread 60s for the mid month warmup. 

36 in NE Queens but there were 33-34 degree readings closer to the grand central

[snywx]

Down to 26 here this morning 

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

still waiting for my first frost. the lantana is going strong

Crazy, already had 4 days this month at or below freezing.  Today was 28.

[Sundog]

WHY IS THE WIND HOWLING AGAIN

This is bullshit 

[FPizz]

Euro upgrade early 2026

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/185/earth-system-science/upgrade-ifs-cycle-50r1