Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

[GaWx]

 From 4 hours ago, this stream from Jeff P. shows he and his friend driving around surveying the damage starting in Santa Cruz, Jamaica, where’s he’s been and which was just to the east of the worst damage, and then heading west to the worst damage with their main goal to see if they could help others:

 

[olafminesaw]

https://x.com/AndrewHolnessJM/status/1983616601464434863

First flyover shot I've seen. more tornado-like damage

[WxWatcher007]

48 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Nah - most of those went below Cat 5 before being affected by land - e.g. the other 4 besides Melissa over the last two years.

What I'm wondering about is how they knew the 1932 was Cat 5 for so long.   We didn't have satellite or even radar back then; nor did we have C130's to do fly-throughs.    Can't do post-hoc damage analysis on the water.   So how did they know?

Must have been some poor group of vessels in the path of it? 

[AdamHLG]

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

https://x.com/AndrewHolnessJM/status/1983616601464434863

First flyover shot I've seen. more tornado-like damage

wow.  

[gallopinggertie]

Jesus…that footage is jaw dropping. Thank god Melissa didn’t hit Kingston, of course that’s small consolation for people living where it did hit. 

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

https://x.com/AndrewHolnessJM/status/1983616601464434863

First flyover shot I've seen. more tornado-like damage

That’s incredible. It’ll take a long time to recover. 

[Wannabehippie]

Western semicircle not looking great. Lots of deep convection near the center of circulation.
 

[WolfStock1]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Must have been some poor group of vessels in the path of it? 

 

Reading up - it does seem like a vessel or two - including S.S. Phemius and the schooner Abundance - that got caught in it and I guess got accurate enough measurements.   Poor sods.   Though it seems like they had to do a lot of extrapolating to come up with the 78-hour number.

[Wannabehippie]

Water vapor loop, shows dry air and shear to Melissa's west, which is also giving it the kick to move to the NE. Its forward speed is up to 16MPH.

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/d28d79c9-b1dc-4880-a36a-8269bda320bd

 

[GaWx]

Forecasting some strengthening during next 24 hours:
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 22.9N  74.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 25.1N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 29.1N  70.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 34.4N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 40.7N  58.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 46.6N  52.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/1800Z 52.0N  45.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1800Z 56.0N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1800Z 57.0N  27.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
 
...MELISSA STARTING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...
...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM 
SURGE CONTINUING IN THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

[Hotair]

4 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Yeah this.   Despite having the look of most-structure-still-standing - I would venture those videos are showing well over 90% actual destruction.   When you include the cost of cleanup - it may cost more to clear-out-and-rebuild those areas than it cost to build them in the first place.

And add to the fact that this isn’t a large country with thousands of roofing companies willing to travel to a disaster area.  The workforce there is limited as are the tools (cranes, materials, etc).  Many of those places will not be rebuilt for at least 3 years or longer.   
 

Now also consider that the percentage of homes covered by insurance in Jamaica is roughly under 5%.   

[TJW014]

Still have Bermuda in the crosshairs. Could be a nasty storm for Nova Scotia & Newfoundland too.

[GaWx]

 

[kvegas-wx]

35 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

https://x.com/AndrewHolnessJM/status/1983616601464434863

First flyover shot I've seen. more tornado-like damage

All I can think about regarding the recovery is mold.  Everywhere.  Helene was terrible here in the NC mountains with mold remediation needs.  But in Jamaica with no power for months and the high heat and humidity, its going to be awful.  Lot of folks starting over there.  And they should seriously be looking at concrete printed homes.  Never a better case study than now.

[Wannabehippie]

4 minutes ago, Hotair said:

And add to the fact that this isn’t a large country with thousands of roofing companies willing to travel to a disaster area.  The workforce there is limited as are the tools (cranes, materials, etc).  Many of those places will not be rebuilt for at least 3 years or longer.   
 

Now also consider that the percentage of homes covered by insurance in Jamaica is roughly under 5%.   

Jamaica is a member of the British Commonwealth of Nations. Which means aid will be coming in from all over the world, along with people that will help rebuild the infrastructure, buildings etc.

[Wannabehippie]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

All I can think about regarding the recovery is mold.  Everywhere.  Helene was terrible here in the NC mountains with mold remediation needs.  But in Jamaica with no power for months and the high heat and humidity, its going to be awful.  Lot of folks starting over there.  And they should seriously be looking at concrete printed homes.  Never a better case study than now.

Lots of homes in Jamaica were already built that way,

[Wannabehippie]

Maybe an eye trying to form again? That little dot of a different color in the center of that pink and purple?

[Wannabehippie]

5:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 29
Location: 22.9°N 74.8°W
Moving: NE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Forecasting some strengthening during next 24 hours:
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 22.9N  74.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 25.1N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 29.1N  70.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 34.4N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 40.7N  58.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 46.6N  52.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/1800Z 52.0N  45.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1800Z 56.0N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1800Z 57.0N  27.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Fitting for this all time hurricane 

[Floydbuster]

 

[nycwinter]

melissa started to get her act together on infrared..

[SolidIcewx]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

melissa started to get her act together on infrared..

One hell of a blow up going on

[andyhb]

This horrific damage from White House, Jamaica is right up there with the highest end I've seen out of a tropical cyclone. Near 100% structural failure/roof failure here.

[olafminesaw]

29 minutes ago, andyhb said:

This horrific damage from White House, Jamaica is right up there with the highest end I've seen out of a tropical cyclone. Near 100% structural failure/roof failure here.

Oof, likely no surge there so all wind damage. Probably from a mesovortex

[Boston Bulldog]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

One hell of a blow up going on

Vortices are likely disrupted and a bit sloppy at lower levels, but this intense convection will help realign and ramp up the reorganization in time. Favorable shear vector will help with divergence. Perhaps Melissa can close off another core, albeit briefly 

[olafminesaw]

Another mind-blowing satellite loop, closeup of the eye 

https://x.com/weatherdak/status/1983629157381894297

[klw]

21 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Another mind-blowing satellite loop, closeup of the eye 

https://x.com/weatherdak/status/1983629157381894297

Just when my vertigo was improving.  Wow that was dizzying

[BooneWX]

Melissa tonight


.

[olafminesaw]

Part of Black River : completely wiped away:

https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1983630143647289414