SnoSki14 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago GFS looking a bit stronger, more organized System does look quite potent on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 46 minutes ago, dseagull said: Still a fairly nice day on the water. A little chop 15-20kt , but otherwise a beautiful fall morning. 20251011_104915.mp4 Going down the boat later to take down the canvas. A few gusts near 50 and it probably rips off…it’s old and already falling apart 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Highest low tide all week this morning. It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Waiting for the Euro to cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 17 minutes ago, Sundog said: Waiting for the Euro to cave 12z Euro doesn't really bring the rain in until tomorrow night, but then gives us a decent soaking tomorrow night and Monday. A little over an inch of rain for this area. Overall this storm doesn't look as bad as it did a few days ago, but I'm glad we're gonna get some much needed rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago In person university classes cancelled Monday. Repeat texts from sheriff's department and the township about this system tomorrow/Monday. Full on bread & milk mode from the officials 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, TJW014 said: In person university classes cancelled Monday. Repeat texts from sheriff's department and the township about this system tomorrow/Monday. Full on bread & milk mode from the officials A run on the supermarkets for a run of the mill rainstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6 minutes ago, TJW014 said: In person university classes cancelled Monday. Repeat texts from sheriff's department and the township about this system tomorrow/Monday. Full on bread & milk mode from the officials Isnt it Columbus Day? Surprised there were classes at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 10 minutes ago, TJW014 said: In person university classes cancelled Monday. Repeat texts from sheriff's department and the township about this system tomorrow/Monday. Full on bread & milk mode from the officials Insanity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Isnt it Columbus Day? Surprised there were classes at all! It’s college not elementary school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Never seen a 1000mb “strong” Nor’easter before, forecasts are pure insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, qg_omega said: Never seen a 1000mb “strong” Nor’easter before, forecasts are pure insanity Pressure gradient and prolonged east flow will pile water up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Never seen a 1000mb “strong” Nor’easter before, forecasts are pure insanity Possibly because of wind being channeled between the systems, pulling water further inland? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro doesn't really bring the rain in until tomorrow night, but then gives us a decent soaking tomorrow night and Monday. A little over an inch of rain for this area. Overall this storm doesn't look as bad as it did a few days ago, but I'm glad we're gonna get some much needed rain. 1-2 inches of rain is plenty we don't need more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Isnt it Columbus Day? Surprised there were classes at all! Universities don’t have many holidays. Only had Labor Day & Thanksgiving off at UM back in the 90s for fall semester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 17 minutes ago, Sundog said: A run on the supermarkets for a run of the mill rainstorm lol Staten Island half marathon also canceled. The Road Runners Club said they canceled it because they were afraid for the safety of the runners..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Staten Island half marathon also canceled. The Road Runners Club said they canceled it because they were afraid for the safety of the runners..... and tomorrow morning will likely be dry lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Long weekend ruiner for most. It's a complex interaction with the shortwave to the north which is throwing models for these fits, but generally seems to be settling into a nuisance event that hopefully replenishes the water table to some degree. Back bays and NJ coast will see moderate flooding in some places due to the easterly fetch, but beyond that an inch of rain and some gusts to 40 isn't notable at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Possibly because of wind being channeled between the systems, pulling water further inland? We have had real nor’easters down into the 960s against 1040 highs that were less hyped 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: We have had real nor’easters down into the 960s against 1040 highs that were less hyped media and social media just run wild with everything these days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Brian5671 said: media and social media just run wild with everything these days... I hear we're going to have oppressive sunshine later this week, NJ is thinking of declaring a SOE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Comments: Strength of storm not dependent on Lowest Pres but pressure gradient (MB between high and low at least 1kt/mb-my own rule of thumb) Not sure of the average return interval for an October northeast wind coastal wind event of G50 MPH? This looks to be a bit above average nor'easter in winter taking into account: qpf, coastal flood and wind gusts impact on travel. We shall see what wind and water do for any power outages... tomorrow night Monday morning? Unknown. If there is tree branch on your car... or in the road. MINIMUM gusts NJ coast and s Coast LI should be 40-45 MPH per 12z/11 SPC HREF. Suggestion is to stay with NWS messaging and not confuse the issue-mislead. Preparedness can be important. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Periods of very light rain, mist and drizzle ongoing here for last 90 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Sundog said: I hear we're going to have oppressive sunshine later this week, NJ is thinking of declaring a SOE. It really has risen to that level of stupidity. People are slowly waking up to it, at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 35 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Long weekend ruiner for most. It's a complex interaction with the shortwave to the north which is throwing models for these fits, but generally seems to be settling into a nuisance event that hopefully replenishes the water table to some degree. Back bays and NJ coast will see moderate flooding in some places due to the easterly fetch, but beyond that an inch of rain and some gusts to 40 isn't notable at all. Lee Goldberg said we shouldn't blame the models because it's very difficult to make accurate predictions before the low forms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Sundog said: I hear we're going to have oppressive sunshine later this week, NJ is thinking of declaring a SOE. we'll definitely be doing it for frost advisories and freeze warnings at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 31 minutes ago, qg_omega said: We have had real nor’easters down into the 960s against 1040 highs that were less hyped Didn't we have hype like this for the April noreaster last Spring? I remember we were complaining about that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Wind is slowly starting to pick up a bit. Strong enough for spray to ruin my sandwich on my way across the bay, but I simply dont see the Major flood criteria being achieved as forecast. Im just not buying that this will be 8/10th of a foot less than Sandy. I imagine they will slowly walk it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Didn't we have hype like this for the April noreaster last Spring? I remember we were complaining about that too. Sir I think you mean to say every storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Gusting over 20 mph already. Waves are quite big with white caps. Kinda surprised to see that already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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