OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[Brian5671]

Upton's AFD notes models struggling with which southern vort turns into the storm-that's why we are seeing the back and forth here

[weathermedic]

NWS briefing seems to cover everything quite well

 

LatestBriefing.pdf

[Sundog]

6z EUROS are very wet for the area

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

6z EUROS are very wet for the area

Yeah crazy the back and forth 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

6z EUROS are very wet for the area

[wthrmn654]

Wild per hourly forecasts gusts start about 11 am Sunday and end about 11 pm Monday. Not often to have that long of a winds even 35+mph gusts.. Tuesday shows gusts in the 30s too so I'll add that onto such a long wind event.  

[wthrmn654]

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That Ocean / Monmouth County area has been targeted for several runs on various models for the heaviest rains.  Overall this map does not look out of line and is about what I'm expecting.  Maybe boost the totals some for LI?  

Strong onshore winds always were going to be the main feature of this event along with associated moderate to perhaps major coastal flooding especially NJ coast / bays.  Solid beach erosion is going to take place over 3 three high tide cycles.  I think inland winds are overdone but would not be shocked to see some gusts to 60 mph+? along the NJ coast.  Expecting up to 30 mph up in my neck of the woods.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

That Ocean / Monmouth County area has been targeted for several runs on various models for the heaviest rains.  Overall this map does not look out of line and is about what I'm expecting.  Maybe boost the totals some for LI?  

Strong onshore winds always were going to be the main feature of this event along with associated moderate to perhaps major coastal flooding especially NJ coast / bays.  Solid beach erosion is going to take place over 3 three high tide cycles.  I think inland winds are overdone but would not be shocked to see some gusts to 60 mph+? along the NJ coast.  Expecting up to 30 mph up in my neck of the woods.

But that map is showing amounts 10x what it showed yesterday for inland places so who knows if its going to shift back the other way again but I agree on the other points

[Franklin0529]

Pouring in northern Monmouth county 

[Brasiluvsnow]

My son is planning on driving early AM Sunday  from Charlotte to NYC and these models flipping and the lack of certainty is driving me to drink,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,in other news does anyone have a guesstimate as to how the winds might effect the Monday Nite Football Game in Washington vs Bears ?

[Franklin0529]

@Stormlover74what's so funny?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

@Stormlover74what's so funny?

Read your post

[Neblizzard]

31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Good to see! Might come down to a nowcasting event.  Although this storm won’t be the phase bomb the data showed a couple days ago that, it still will be a formidable storm . 

[lee59]

I don't think this was ever supposed to be a terribly strong storm but rather the wind is from a pressure gradient between a high to the north and the storm to the South.

[nightknights]

Could models be underperforming on this storm.  Looking at future radar to 3pm it looks like pulling up big storms from Cuba/PR and pulling in outflow from Jerry

[nightknights]

Oops mean Domnican Republic not PR

[Franklin0529]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Read your post

I was pouting also because of the rain lol

[Stormlover74]

Nam has an initial slug of precip tomorrow then just mostly showery by night and into Monday 

[USCG RS]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam has an initial slug of precip tomorrow then just mostly showery by night and into Monday 

NAM 3K has the storm deepening rather strongly to the NC/SC border with a rather heavy band transversing the area tomorrow and then slowly decaying into the Mid-Atlantic states. 

[Picard]

I don't know if it means much, but I had a band of mist move through about 9:00 am, followed by partly sunny skies.

[Sundog]

I got .08 inches out of that thin little batch that really looked very light on radar.  

[nightknights]

50 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Oops mean Domnican Republic not PR

Grrr Bahamas.  

[TJW014]

Water levels already running about 0.5-0.75' above normal high tide at Sandy Hook & AC Steel Pier

[Sundog]

RGEM and ICON still look like garbage.

 

[Sundog]

ICON ensembles are good for our area. 

But for some reason the OP prefers to bring heavy rain all the way to Lake George while somehow avoiding our area. 

[Snowlover11]

5 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Water levels already running about 0.5-0.75' above normal high tide at Sandy Hook & AC Steel Pier

im down here currently in AC. You can tell its going to cause issues.  the beach is more than half under already.

[wdrag]

Will update headline for OBS for NWS Warned fairly powerful Nor'easter etc around 5PM. Keep the info flowing. all good. 

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, Sundog said:

RGEM and ICON still look like garbage.

 

models may be worthless right up to go time for this one...just all over the place

[dseagull]

Still a fairly nice day on the water.  A little chop 15-20kt , but otherwise a beautiful fall morning.