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"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.


wdrag
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Looks like a possible Jan 2022/Jan 2015 late bloomer scenario developing. Late bloomer coastal that clobbers New England definitely a possibility-by tomorrow AM we should see the models finally converge on an outcome. I'm just hoping we get a decent soaking for the grass and reservoirs. 

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a possible Jan 2022/Jan 2015 late bloomer scenario developing. Late bloomer coastal that clobbers New England definitely a possibility-by tomorrow AM we should see the models finally converge on an outcome. I'm just hoping we get a decent soaking for the grass and reservoirs. 

UKMET first to see the Eastern NE special yesterday....

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17 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Problem is the cold enough air for snow would not stay locked in with a track coming onshore into the Del Marva especially for areas south of I -80............that would be a snow to rain track for NYC

I thought the track was supposed to be a little offshore, it seems to be coming more inland now.  Or was that just a blip?

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a possible Jan 2022/Jan 2015 late bloomer scenario developing. Late bloomer coastal that clobbers New England definitely a possibility-by tomorrow AM we should see the models finally converge on an outcome. I'm just hoping we get a decent soaking for the grass and reservoirs. 

Wasn't January 2005 like this too?

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Seems like whenever we have a phase involved between multiple vorts the short term trend is more SE instead of NW. The actual phasing usually is slower than forecast. So this can lead to multiple lows with the easterly one grabbing more moisture. The older runs were consolidated and west with a single low instead of more strung out energy like today.

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11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

This just giving me a headache at this point jeez

This is beginning to look like a moderate rain event north and west of Monmouth County NJ - with 1 - 2 inches long duration event and with the ground being bone dry from the drought conditions the last couple of months it will soak up that 1 -2 inches fast and there should be little flooding concerns unless you are prone to coastal flooding which is being caused by long duration onshore flow and high winds............

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This is beginning to look like a moderate rain event north and west of Monmouth County NJ - with 1 - 2 inches long duration event and with the ground being bone dry from the drought conditions the last couple of months it will soak up that 1 -2 inches fast and there should be little flooding concerns unless you are prone to coastal flooding which is being caused by long duration onshore flow and high winds............

Yep I'm on the island of wind lol so I expecting something.  Otherwise I'll be grumpy Sunday/ Monday

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I think the 6Z Euro is the most exciting solution for now, it has very little Sunday but the secondary low on Monday is consolidated and brings moderate to heavy rain with strong winds. Some of the other models have more rain on Sunday but the entire event is more drawn out and it's light to moderate rain with decent winds.

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I will never learn to not to get sucked in by the early modeling, and the media. Way too soon to say bust, but it’s headed that way. Next, if it ever comes. 

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14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Welp, dry begets dry and boring.

Yep. Guess we watch tonight and hope for a better trend. Sloppy/late phase as we all know, eastern New England gets the real storm and we hope for a few wraparound table scraps. Since much of LI is back in a drought as of yesterday, whatever we can get is badly needed.

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

At least we're finding out 48 hours out instead of as the event is under way

The models haven’t gotten any better in decades with setups like this. That’s why with storms in winter we can’t trust any one model 48 hours out.  We learn and move on.

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