jm1220 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Looks like a possible Jan 2022/Jan 2015 late bloomer scenario developing. Late bloomer coastal that clobbers New England definitely a possibility-by tomorrow AM we should see the models finally converge on an outcome. I'm just hoping we get a decent soaking for the grass and reservoirs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like a possible Jan 2022/Jan 2015 late bloomer scenario developing. Late bloomer coastal that clobbers New England definitely a possibility-by tomorrow AM we should see the models finally converge on an outcome. I'm just hoping we get a decent soaking for the grass and reservoirs. UKMET first to see the Eastern NE special yesterday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 17 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Problem is the cold enough air for snow would not stay locked in with a track coming onshore into the Del Marva especially for areas south of I -80............that would be a snow to rain track for NYC I thought the track was supposed to be a little offshore, it seems to be coming more inland now. Or was that just a blip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago GFS remains 1-2" areawide with solid winds for the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like a possible Jan 2022/Jan 2015 late bloomer scenario developing. Late bloomer coastal that clobbers New England definitely a possibility-by tomorrow AM we should see the models finally converge on an outcome. I'm just hoping we get a decent soaking for the grass and reservoirs. Wasn't January 2005 like this too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago CMC is a total snoozefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wasn't January 2005 like this too? Not really, that was a clipper/mauler from Canada that redeveloped off the coast. It did crush NE but hit most of the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Seems like whenever we have a phase involved between multiple vorts the short term trend is more SE instead of NW. The actual phasing usually is slower than forecast. So this can lead to multiple lows with the easterly one grabbing more moisture. The older runs were consolidated and west with a single low instead of more strung out energy like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago This just giving me a headache at this point jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 26 minutes ago, mob1 said: GFS remains 1-2" areawide with solid winds for the coast. Take what you can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Gefs has minimal change precip wise that I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago A little less jersey coast but not big jumps like icon and them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: This just giving me a headache at this point jeez This is beginning to look like a moderate rain event north and west of Monmouth County NJ - with 1 - 2 inches long duration event and with the ground being bone dry from the drought conditions the last couple of months it will soak up that 1 -2 inches fast and there should be little flooding concerns unless you are prone to coastal flooding which is being caused by long duration onshore flow and high winds............ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Take what you can get. Yep becoming weaker because of a late phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This is beginning to look like a moderate rain event north and west of Monmouth County NJ - with 1 - 2 inches long duration event and with the ground being bone dry from the drought conditions the last couple of months it will soak up that 1 -2 inches fast and there should be little flooding concerns unless you are prone to coastal flooding which is being caused by long duration onshore flow and high winds............ Yep I'm on the island of wind lol so I expecting something. Otherwise I'll be grumpy Sunday/ Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I think the 6Z Euro is the most exciting solution for now, it has very little Sunday but the secondary low on Monday is consolidated and brings moderate to heavy rain with strong winds. Some of the other models have more rain on Sunday but the entire event is more drawn out and it's light to moderate rain with decent winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago UKIE is light rain for the area. It's comically dry (though not necessarily wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Welp, dry begets dry and boring. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I will never learn to not to get sucked in by the early modeling, and the media. Way too soon to say bust, but it’s headed that way. Next, if it ever comes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I am getting March 2001 vibes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: Welp, dry begets dry and boring. Yep. Guess we watch tonight and hope for a better trend. Sloppy/late phase as we all know, eastern New England gets the real storm and we hope for a few wraparound table scraps. Since much of LI is back in a drought as of yesterday, whatever we can get is badly needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Uncanceled my trip to Hershey this weekend. Tomorrow looks like very spotty light showers, maybe slightly more numerous overnight. Sunday looks almost completely dry out there now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Sundog said: I am getting March 2001 vibes At least we're finding out 48 hours out instead of as the event is under way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: At least we're finding out 48 hours out instead of as the event is under way The models haven’t gotten any better in decades with setups like this. That’s why with storms in winter we can’t trust any one model 48 hours out. We learn and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago hopefully we can all get .50 to 1 inch of rain to help with the drought I think that's doable especially nyc and east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro has like nothing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, mob1 said: Euro has like nothing for us. almost nothing through sunday night-wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: Euro has like nothing for us. Until late Monday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, mob1 said: Euro has like nothing for us. It has, it's just a late bloomer like 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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