SnowenOutThere Posted Tuesday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:03 PM 2 hours ago, CAPE said: It's possible given the look. Still pretty far out. GFS suggesting some upslope in early November with LES in the NW flow behind a cold front. What do you think the best place is for upslope hiking wise? I’ve been at spruce knob before but I don’t know if I’d want to try that road when it’s snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted Tuesday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:06 PM 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: What do you think the best place is for upslope hiking wise? I’ve been at spruce knob before but I don’t know if I’d want to try that road when it’s snowing. I might try Canaan valley state park. Easier to access and the road is generally in decent shape. Black bear has some decently priced suites that are pretty cool also. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Tuesday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:10 PM 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: NoVA lost 200” of snow at 0z. Poor @Ji A washout of a Halloween though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Tuesday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:02 PM 51 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: A washout of a Halloween though. obviously the bill might be coming due for our Halloween last year which was in the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Tuesday at 09:05 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:05 PM 5 hours ago, pazzo83 said: obviously the bill might be coming due for our Halloween last year which was in the mid 80s. Just no rain on Halloween please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Tuesday at 09:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:35 PM Clouds but no rain as the next cold front passes. Frost again for western areas Wednesday and Thursday nites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Tuesday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:10 PM All of the people predicting a mid October heat-wave 4 - 6 weeks ago were pitifully wrong........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 12:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:26 AM Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted yesterday at 01:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:07 AM 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw. No SE ridge linkage 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 01:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:30 AM 19 minutes ago, Terpeast said: No SE ridge linkage +PNA and a sweet HL look. SE ridge crushed to oblivion. Non existent. It can happen! Lets hope it does when it really matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM The extended products continue to depict a significantly +PNA and slightly -AO/NAO for the second week in Nov, with below normal temps for the east. Love me some chilly Fall weather. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted yesterday at 10:55 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:55 AM 10 hours ago, CAPE said: Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw. Trough over or near Japan this winter is key imho. It was showing up last year a lot leading to colder temps, step 1 in snow chances. Then we roll the dice on storm tracks. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 11:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:01 AM Not surprising given it’s still D8+, but next weeks big storm still has a ton of uncertainty. 0z euro and 6z gfs skip over us entirely. Euro-AI gets us pretty good still though and EPS more or less agrees. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 11:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:38 AM WB 6Z GEFS has a few big hits; so we wait.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted yesterday at 01:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:13 PM Gfs looks super dry. It has a frontal passage next week similar to last night. But that’s it. Hopefully some interesting weather pops up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM Halloween now looks very cold. A few ensemble members bring the 528dm into the Northeast.. there is a pretty good spread and variation for that trough on current models though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 12z euro is insulting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 12z EURO gives Augusta .03" next week. 12z EURO AI gives Augusta 1.75" next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldasice Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Nobody seeing the Canadian with a Sandy redo?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Regarding the Oct 31 - Nov 3 system: 12z Euro Ensemble has lots of members give decent snow totals to the mountains, with a handful of members showing some first-of-the-season flakes for the lower elevation people. And don't ask me what panel 20 is doing--but SE wins again lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 12z AIFS ensemble is a mess LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 15 minutes ago, bncho said: 12z AIFS ensemble is a mess LOL Anyone up for a chase to Bermuda? Couple of frames show it… 10, 13, 15…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 52 minutes ago, coldasice said: Nobody seeing the Canadian with a Sandy redo?? Bastardi saw it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 18 hours ago, CAPE said: The extended products continue to depict a significantly +PNA and slightly -AO/NAO for the second week in Nov, with below normal temps for the east. Love me some chilly Fall weather. First week too based on 12z ensembles. You’d think we’d be able to get widespread freezes with that look… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 45 minutes ago, bncho said: 12z AIFS ensemble is a mess LOL Mental note not to take this product too seriously… feel like for this kind of result it’s gotta be weird ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Mental note not to take this product too seriously… feel like for this kind of result it’s gotta be weird ptype issues. Or maybe the AI doesn’t explicitly model ptypes? And it’s just weatherbell saying precip+850-0C line = snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: First week too based on 12z ensembles. You’d think we’d be able to get widespread freezes with that look… Yeah that's what I meant- the extended products continue the same advertised longwave pattern from the end of the ens runs the beginning of the month. And I agree- given we will be in Nov with that look, frost/freeze should be a thing outside of the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Or maybe the AI doesn’t explicitly model ptypes? And it’s just weatherbell saying precip+850-0C line = snow? Yea, that’s more artfully what I was trying to get at. I don’t think the data is being interpreted well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Kind of seeing the outlines of typical Nina winter storm disappointment in late next weeks action. Still a good chance we get some rain, but you can see how we get fringed in almost every direction. It’s a multi-low pressure sequence. First the southern stream low Sunday-Thesday is pretty consistent across guidance that it passes to our south and scoots out to sea. Then the strong northern stream shortwave dives in and generates a coastal low somewhere. How and where and if any juice from Melissa gets involved is very TBD. But guidance (0z euro) is throwing out various solutions that mostly skip over us. Some still deluge us as well. But what’s Nina climo for late developing coastal lows near our latitude?? Yeah… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Kind of seeing the outlines of typical Nina winter storm disappointment in late next weeks action. Still a good chance we get some rain, but you can see how we get fringed in almost every direction. It’s a multi-low pressure sequence. First the southern stream low Sunday-Thesday is pretty consistent across guidance that it passes to our south and scoots out to sea. Then the strong northern stream shortwave dives in and generates a coastal low somewhere. How and where and if any juice from Melissa gets involved is very TBD. But guidance (0z euro) is throwing out various solutions that mostly skip over us. Some still deluge us as well. But what’s Nina climo for late developing coastal lows near our latitude?? Yeah… Buckle up friend....gonna be a long winter of rug pulls 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now