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October Medium/Long Range Discussion


Eskimo Joe
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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's possible given the look. Still pretty far out. GFS suggesting some upslope in early November with LES in the NW flow behind a cold front.

What do you think the best place is for upslope hiking wise? I’ve been at spruce knob before but I don’t know if I’d want to try that road when it’s snowing. 

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1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What do you think the best place is for upslope hiking wise? I’ve been at spruce knob before but I don’t know if I’d want to try that road when it’s snowing. 

I might try Canaan valley state park. Easier to access and the road is generally in decent shape. Black bear has some decently priced suites that are pretty cool also.

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Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

1762365600-vzW1H3pg3FI.png

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40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

1762365600-vzW1H3pg3FI.png

No SE ridge linkage

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10 hours ago, CAPE said:

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

1762365600-vzW1H3pg3FI.png

Trough over or near Japan this winter is key imho. It was showing up last year a lot leading to colder temps, step 1 in snow chances. Then we roll the dice on storm tracks.

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Regarding the Oct 31 - Nov 3 system:

12z Euro Ensemble has lots of members give decent snow totals to the mountains, with a handful of members showing some first-of-the-season flakes for the lower elevation people.

And don't ask me what panel 20 is doing--but SE wins again lol


image.png.a55adfc033057bd5cb230f12348a3376.pngimage.png.1847919bee099add7704512a26f611eb.png

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18 hours ago, CAPE said:

The extended products continue to depict a significantly +PNA and slightly -AO/NAO for the second week in Nov, with below normal temps for the east. Love me some chilly Fall weather.

First week too based on 12z ensembles. You’d think we’d be able to get widespread freezes with that look…

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Mental note not to take this product too seriously… feel like for this kind of result it’s gotta be weird ptype issues. 

Or maybe the AI doesn’t explicitly model ptypes? And it’s just weatherbell saying precip+850-0C line = snow?

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29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

First week too based on 12z ensembles. You’d think we’d be able to get widespread freezes with that look…

Yeah that's what I meant- the extended products continue the same advertised longwave pattern from the end of the ens runs the beginning of the month. And I agree- given we will be in Nov with that look, frost/freeze should be a thing outside of the UHI.

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