October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's possible given the look. Still pretty far out. GFS suggesting some upslope in early November with LES in the NW flow behind a cold front.

What do you think the best place is for upslope hiking wise? I’ve been at spruce knob before but I don’t know if I’d want to try that road when it’s snowing. 

[chris21]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What do you think the best place is for upslope hiking wise? I’ve been at spruce knob before but I don’t know if I’d want to try that road when it’s snowing. 

I might try Canaan valley state park. Easier to access and the road is generally in decent shape. Black bear has some decently priced suites that are pretty cool also.

[MN Transplant]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

NoVA lost 200” of snow at 0z. Poor @Ji

A washout of a Halloween though.

[pazzo83]

51 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

A washout of a Halloween though.

obviously the bill might be coming due for our Halloween last year which was in the mid 80s.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

obviously the bill might be coming due for our Halloween last year which was in the mid 80s.

Just no rain on Halloween please.

[stormy]

Clouds but  no rain as the next cold front passes. 

Frost again for western areas Wednesday and Thursday nites. 

[stormy]

All of the people predicting a mid October heat-wave 4 - 6 weeks ago were pitifully wrong........ 

[CAPE]

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

[Terpeast]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

No SE ridge linkage

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

No SE ridge linkage

+PNA and a sweet HL look. SE ridge crushed to oblivion. Non existent. It can happen! Lets hope it does when it really matters.

[CAPE]

The extended products continue to depict a significantly +PNA and slightly -AO/NAO for the second week in Nov, with below normal temps for the east. Love me some chilly Fall weather.

[mitchnick]

10 hours ago, CAPE said:

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

Trough over or near Japan this winter is key imho. It was showing up last year a lot leading to colder temps, step 1 in snow chances. Then we roll the dice on storm tracks.

[WxUSAF]

Not surprising given it’s still D8+, but next weeks big storm still has a ton of uncertainty. 0z euro and 6z gfs skip over us entirely. Euro-AI gets us pretty good still though and EPS more or less agrees. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS has a few big hits; so we wait....

[dailylurker]

Gfs looks super dry. It has a frontal passage next week similar to last night. But that’s it. Hopefully some interesting weather pops up soon. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Halloween now looks very cold. A few ensemble members bring the 528dm into the Northeast.. there is a pretty good spread and variation for that trough on current models though. 

[WxUSAF]

12z euro is insulting 

[stormy]

12z EURO gives Augusta .03" next week.

12z EURO  AI gives Augusta 1.75" next week.

[coldasice]

Nobody seeing the Canadian with a Sandy redo??

[bncho]

Regarding the Oct 31 - Nov 3 system:

12z Euro Ensemble has lots of members give decent snow totals to the mountains, with a handful of members showing some first-of-the-season flakes for the lower elevation people.

And don't ask me what panel 20 is doing--but SE wins again lol

[bncho]

12z AIFS ensemble is a mess LOL

[GATECH]

15 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z AIFS ensemble is a mess LOL

Anyone up for a chase to Bermuda?  Couple of frames show it… 10, 13, 15….

[IronTy]

52 minutes ago, coldasice said:

Nobody seeing the Canadian with a Sandy redo??

Bastardi saw it 

[WxUSAF]

18 hours ago, CAPE said:

The extended products continue to depict a significantly +PNA and slightly -AO/NAO for the second week in Nov, with below normal temps for the east. Love me some chilly Fall weather.

First week too based on 12z ensembles. You’d think we’d be able to get widespread freezes with that look…

[NorthArlington101]

45 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z AIFS ensemble is a mess LOL

Mental note not to take this product too seriously… feel like for this kind of result it’s gotta be weird ptype issues. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Mental note not to take this product too seriously… feel like for this kind of result it’s gotta be weird ptype issues. 

Or maybe the AI doesn’t explicitly model ptypes? And it’s just weatherbell saying precip+850-0C line = snow?

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

First week too based on 12z ensembles. You’d think we’d be able to get widespread freezes with that look…

Yeah that's what I meant- the extended products continue the same advertised longwave pattern from the end of the ens runs the beginning of the month. And I agree- given we will be in Nov with that look, frost/freeze should be a thing outside of the UHI.

[NorthArlington101]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Or maybe the AI doesn’t explicitly model ptypes? And it’s just weatherbell saying precip+850-0C line = snow?

Yea, that’s more artfully what I was trying to get at. I don’t think the data is being interpreted well.