October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's possible given the look. Still pretty far out. GFS suggesting some upslope in early November with LES in the NW flow behind a cold front.

What do you think the best place is for upslope hiking wise? I’ve been at spruce knob before but I don’t know if I’d want to try that road when it’s snowing. 

[chris21]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What do you think the best place is for upslope hiking wise? I’ve been at spruce knob before but I don’t know if I’d want to try that road when it’s snowing. 

I might try Canaan valley state park. Easier to access and the road is generally in decent shape. Black bear has some decently priced suites that are pretty cool also.

[MN Transplant]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

NoVA lost 200” of snow at 0z. Poor @Ji

A washout of a Halloween though.

[pazzo83]

51 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

A washout of a Halloween though.

obviously the bill might be coming due for our Halloween last year which was in the mid 80s.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

obviously the bill might be coming due for our Halloween last year which was in the mid 80s.

Just no rain on Halloween please.

[stormy]

Clouds but  no rain as the next cold front passes. 

Frost again for western areas Wednesday and Thursday nites. 

[stormy]

All of the people predicting a mid October heat-wave 4 - 6 weeks ago were pitifully wrong........ 

[CAPE]

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

[Terpeast]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

No SE ridge linkage

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

No SE ridge linkage

+PNA and a sweet HL look. SE ridge crushed to oblivion. Non existent. It can happen! Lets hope it does when it really matters.

[CAPE]

The extended products continue to depict a significantly +PNA and slightly -AO/NAO for the second week in Nov, with below normal temps for the east. Love me some chilly Fall weather.

[mitchnick]

10 hours ago, CAPE said:

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

Trough over or near Japan this winter is key imho. It was showing up last year a lot leading to colder temps, step 1 in snow chances. Then we roll the dice on storm tracks.

[WxUSAF]

Not surprising given it’s still D8+, but next weeks big storm still has a ton of uncertainty. 0z euro and 6z gfs skip over us entirely. Euro-AI gets us pretty good still though and EPS more or less agrees. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS has a few big hits; so we wait....