October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

March during the 2020s has been 3.8° warmer than the 2010s at a spot like NYC. So it has been too warm for much snow in March this decade. It’s more like an early spring month now than a late winter one we had during the 2010s. 

March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	46.5	46.5
2025	46.9	46.9
2024	48.1	48.1
2023	44.6	44.6
2022	45.3	45.3
2021	45.8	45.8
2020	48.0	48.0

 

March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	42.7	42.7
2019	41.7	41.7
2018	40.1	40.1
2017	39.2	39.2
2016	48.9	48.9
2015	38.1	38.1
2014	37.7	37.7
2013	40.1	40.1
2012	50.9	50.9
2011	42.3	42.3
2010	48.2	48.2

 

March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	T	T
2023	0.1	0.1
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	6.0	6.0
2019	10.4	10.4
2018	11.6	11.6
2017	9.7	9.7
2016	0.9	0.9
2015	18.6	18.6
2014	0.1	0.1
2013	7.3	7.3
2012	0.0	0.0
2011	1.0	1.0
2010	T	T

wow March 2014 was such a waste after such an excellent winter, look how cold it was and only 0.1 inches of snow.  February 2015 and March 2015 are why I remember 2014-15 as a much better winter than 2013-14.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Sundog said:

I bet this is a combination of the Hunga Tonga water vapor injection coupled with international shipping cleaning up aerosol pollution accelerating/demasking the general warming trend of the 2020s. 

Did we really need to clean up shipping? For gods sake this couldn't come at a worse time. 

 

international shipping also adds a gigaton to greenhouse warming

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, FPizz said:

It was like 20 miles wide haha.  Snow storms always have winners and losers.  Sometimes you guys get a nice coastal where i get shafted.  Storm tracks always determine the localized winners and losers here.  But, that was one of the best snow surprises of my life.

how much snow did you get? we had a nice surprise too-- around 6.5 inches here and 4.5 inches from another storm in the same week!

 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I’ll be honest, I don’t know what it is, but ever since 2019, we’ve only had 1 good winter here in NYC and we’ve had 3 near shut outs practically. I won’t try to speculate what it is. Especially when it comes to March being snowless since 2020. My understanding of weather is better than it used to be but long term climate is still pretty niche and hard to follow along with. But whatever it is, I think we all know deep down that it’s not going to get much better. I think the “winters” we’ve been having this decade is the new normal, and most good snow seasons are a thing of the past. It’s very hard to deny it. KUs are pretty much a thing of the past and with a warmer winter, what would normally be small snow events in the past are now marginal cold rain events for most of us. It’s easy to bet on a warm and less than average snowy winter at this point. 

It’s the much stronger North Pacific Jet stream since 2018-2019 leading to the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks.

So the DC to Philly corridor has had their lowest 7 year combined snowfall on record. Only a brief break in this pattern during 20-21 and January 22. January 22 was the last winter month with well above average snow and cold for our area.

The 4th chart below is the storm tracks for last winter which lead to the much below average snowfall again. On the 11 days that .25” of precipitation fell in NYC we had a strong Southeast ridge and an average temperature of 41.0”. 
 

Fastest 7 year North Pacific Jet stream on record
 

Warm storm tracks from last winter with a strong Southeast ridge on the 11 days that .25 of precipitation fell

[lee59]

39.4 my low this morning

[SnoSki14]

Wish we had better timing with the cold front Sunday night. Looks like a potent sw trough going negative too. 

[uofmiami]

37.9 for Muttontown & 40.5 for Syosset this morning. 

[IrishRob17]

Only 36 this morning thanks to the clouds that are moving through. 

[SACRUS]

 

45 / 39 off a low of 40.   Should see mostly sunny today with any of those clouds / showers in PA dissipating.  Mid - upper 60s today and enough sun gets most to low 70s tomorrow and the warmest areas to mid 70s.  Front comes through later tomorror night with storms/ showers / rain into Monday late morning (0.50 - 1.00).  Clear out later Monday.  Nice / mainly  dry (light showers/rain Wed AM) fall week on tap , near normal overall.  Brief warmup still showing up as deep storm/cut off into the mid west pumps heights to the east between 10/26 - 10/28,  GFS shifted this east so there is the cavteat the period could be more cloudy/wetter.  

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 85 (2016)
NYC: 82 (1928)
LGA: 82 (2016)
JFK: 77 (1964)



Lows:

EWR: 32 (1982)
NYC: 35 (1974)
LGA: 35 (1939)
JFK: 37 (1978)

HIstorical:

 

1906 - A hurricane struck South Florida drowning 124 persons stranded in the Florida Keys. (David Ludlum)

1910 - Northeasterly winds as high as 70 mph (from a hurricane moving northward up the Florida peninsula) carried water out of Tampa Bay and the Hillsboro River. The water level lowered to nine feet below mean low water. Forty ships were grounded. (The Weather Channel)

1916: A tropical depression organized to a tropical storm on October 11 in the western Caribbean. It moved westward, reaching hurricane strength on the 13th before hitting the Yucatán Peninsula on the 15th as a 110 mph hurricane. It weakened over land, and it emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. It quickly re-strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane, hitting Pensacola on October 18. The maximum wind velocity at Mobile was 115 mph from the east at 8:25 am. Pensacola had winds of 120 mph at 10:13 am when the wind instrument tower was blown down.

1930 - A big early season lake effect snowburst on the lee shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario produced 47 inches at Governeur NY and 48 inches just south of Buffalo. (David Ludlum)

1948: Birmingham, AL had its earliest freeze. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1984: Heavy snow began falling late on the 17th at Salt Lake City, UT and by the time it ended on this date, 18.4 inches had piled up to set a new all-time 24 hour snowfall record. 40 inches of snow fell at Alta in the Wasatch Range. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms in northeastern Texas produced golf ball size hail at Atlanta, along with wind gusts to 86 mph, and four inches of rain. Damage from the storm was estimated at more than a million dollars. Sunny and mild weather continued across much of the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Eight cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Red Bluff CA with a reading of 96 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold air began to invade the central and eastern U.S. Light snow fell across northern Maine, and snow was also reported in the Great Lakes Region, including the Chicago area. Bismarck ND was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 9 degrees above zero. Five cities in Florida reported record high readings for the date, as temperatures warmed above 80 degrees. Miami FL reported a record high of 90 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

2005 - With the formation of Hurricane Wilma, the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season tied the record for the most named storms for any season (21 storms in 1933), and also tied the record for the most hurricanes in a single season (12 in 1969). Wilma peaked at category-5 intensity on the 19th, with a minimum central pressure falling to 882 millibars (26.05 inches of mercury), the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. Wilma also became the most rapidly-intensifying storm on record, with a maximum-sustained surface wind speed increase of 105 mph in a 24-hour period.

1991: Nearly four inches of snow fell at Rochester, NY, the largest snowfall ever recorded so early in the season there. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1994: Massive flooding came to a close in southeast Texas. Up to 20 inches of rain fell over a widespread area. The maximum amount recorded was over thirty inches at Liberty Texas. 18 people were killed. 13,000 people had to flee their homes and 22,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. Total damage: $900 million. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

 

2005: Hurricane Wilma developed a tiny, well-defined eye and began intensifying rapidly, reaching Category 5 strength with a record-setting pressure of 882 millibars by October 19. The rapid intensification from a tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours was the fastest ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, and the second-fastest worldwide, after Super Typhoon Forrest.

[donsutherland1]

The 10/18 0z ECMWF had a really odd solution in the extended, low-skill range. I'm referring to the track/redevelopment of the low that it shows forming along a cold front over Alabama.

300 Hours:

312 Hours:

324 Hours:

Afterward, the storm tracks into Iowa, across Wisconsin and into Ontario. Between hours 348 and 360 it rapidly intensifies from a central pressure of 998 mb to 972 mb.

It's too soon to be sure, but odd or wild solutions, along with a lack of run-to-run continuity, often develops for periods of transition. So, this might be an early hint that the closing days of October and opening week of November might be a time to watch for a pattern change.

[Sundog]

9 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I’ll be honest, I don’t know what it is, but ever since 2019, we’ve only had 1 good winter here in NYC and we’ve had 3 near shut outs practically. I won’t try to speculate what it is. Especially when it comes to March being snowless since 2020. My understanding of weather is better than it used to be but long term climate is still pretty niche and hard to follow along with. But whatever it is, I think we all know deep down that it’s not going to get much better. I think the “winters” we’ve been having this decade is the new normal, and most good snow seasons are a thing of the past. It’s very hard to deny it. KUs are pretty much a thing of the past and with a warmer winter, what would normally be small snow events in the past are now marginal cold rain events for most of us. It’s easy to bet on a warm and less than average snowy winter at this point. 

KUs will continue. Florida just got one for gods sake. 

Overall averages will probably decline though. 

[FPizz]

38.  Chilly morning ride for these people

[IrishRob17]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 10/18 0z ECMWF had a really odd solution in the extended, low-skill range. I'm referring to the track/redevelopment of the low that it shows forming along a cold front over Alabama.

300 Hours:

312 Hours:

324 Hours:

Afterward, the storm tracks into Iowa, across Wisconsin and into Ontario. Between hours 348 and 360 it rapidly intensifies from a central pressure of 998 mb to 972 mb.

It's too soon to be sure, but odd or wild solutions, along with a lack of run-to-run continuity, often develops for periods of transition. So, this might be an early hint that the closing days of October and opening week of November might be a time to watch for a pattern change.

Good post, Don, hinting at what @wdraghas mentioned a couple times about the blocking at the end of the month. 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

38.  Chilly morning ride for these people

It's 50 degrees up there haha

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 10/18 0z ECMWF had a really odd solution in the extended, low-skill range. I'm referring to the track/redevelopment of the low that it shows forming along a cold front over Alabama.

300 Hours:

312 Hours:

324 Hours:

Afterward, the storm tracks into Iowa, across Wisconsin and into Ontario. Between hours 348 and 360 it rapidly intensifies from a central pressure of 998 mb to 972 mb.

It's too soon to be sure, but odd or wild solutions, along with a lack of run-to-run continuity, often develops for periods of transition. So, this might be an early hint that the closing days of October and opening week of November might be a time to watch for a pattern change.

It kind of looks like a classic closed off low around the Mississippi River and depending on the air patterns and blocking locations, it’s a gamble of it’s future track.  Welcome to fall and winter fun.

[psv88]

40.3

[donsutherland1]

This morning is as good as it gets in October. The sun is bright and temperatures are pleasant.

[Sundog]

How's the foliage in Rockland County and Bear Mountain looking like?

Any good or too early?

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

It's 50 degrees up there haha

50 is chilly in a little floating basket I would think.  My dog spotted it and wouldn't stop barking at it.  Thankfully it landed soon after I took the pic.  

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

40.3

I had some scattered wind overnight that kept me over 40 like you, I assume you had the same. 

[ForestHillWx]

Foliage is over 50% changed out this way; the town is filling up with those looking to get the fall vibes. 

[Eduardo]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s the much stronger North Pacific Jet stream since 2018-2019 leading to the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks.

So the DC to Philly corridor has had their lowest 7 year combined snowfall on record. Only a brief break in this pattern during 20-21 and January 22. January 22 was the last winter month with well above average snow and cold for our area.

The 4th chart below is the storm tracks for last winter which lead to the much below average snowfall again. On the 11 days that .25” of precipitation fell in NYC we had a strong Southeast ridge and an average temperature of 41.0”. 
 

Fastest 7 year North Pacific Jet stream on record
 

Warm storm tracks from last winter with a strong Southeast ridge on the 11 days that .25 of precipitation fell

It’s been stuck in hyperdrive for the better part of a decade now.  Any insights on how long things like this usually last?