September Discobs 2025

[vastateofmind]

Welp, planned to mow the front lawn early-mid afternoon, started getting Rain Alarm alerts almost an hour ago. I scoffed at them...because I sometimes get false-positives from that particular app (e.g., fog, low lying clouds, etc.) plus, it's supposed to be gorgeous this afternoon, and has been all morning and (up until) the past hour:

Get about two passes in on the front lawn...and the sky opens up, heavy downpour, can't hardly see across the street. That started about 40 min ago. Call me a cynic, but I didn't see this reflected above, nor in the morning disco, at least not for close-in NoVA burbs:

These are the kind of whiffs in forecasting that really piss me off. Can I mow tomorrow, or early next week? Yeah, I can likely fit it in with all of the other life crap. But c'mon...can we get at least a bit more of a heads-up in the disco (which is usually what *I* pay attention to)?? Yeah, precip might not happen (and THAT'S usually in hard winter around here)...but this is annoying.

Ironically, we had a small picnic planned for our back patio/yard for midday today but had to cancel last-minute...thank God we did, or it would've been one helluva fire drill.

P.S. -- it's STILL raining almost an hour later.  

[MN Transplant]

23 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Welp, planned to mow the front lawn early-mid afternoon, started getting Rain Alarm alerts almost an hour ago. I scoffed at them...because I sometimes get false-positives from that particular app (e.g., fog, low lying clouds, etc.) plus, it's supposed to be gorgeous this afternoon, and has been all morning and (up until) the past hour:

Get about two passes in on the front lawn...and the sky opens up, heavy downpour, can't hardly see across the street. That started about 40 min ago. Call me a cynic, but I didn't see this reflected above, nor in the morning disco, at least not for close-in NoVA burbs:

These are the kind of whiffs in forecasting that really piss me off. Can I mow tomorrow, or early next week? Yeah, I can likely fit it in with all of the other life crap. But c'mon, mets...can we get at least a bit more of a heads-up in the disco (which is usually what *I* pay attention to)?? Yeah, precip might not happen (and THAT'S usually in hard winter around here)...but this is annoying.

Ironically, we had a small picnic planned for our back patio/yard for midday today but had to cancel last-minute...thank God we did, or it would've been one helluva fire drill.

P.S. -- it's STILL raining almost an hour later.  

It does say "a few showers making it as far east as Southern MD".  90% of the area is dry.  They probably should have put a 20% POP in, though..

[vastateofmind]

19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It does say "a few showers making it as far east as Southern MD".  90% of the area is dry.  They probably should have put a 20% POP in, though..

To your point, LWX has suddenly and retroactively changed their tune (though not necessarily in the PM disco update):

I appreciate your observation...and honestly, your personal inputs here over the years. And please believe, I defend your profession more than you know....I only approach this from a hobbyist standpoint, but twice already this afternoon, I've had two neighbors ping me -- "yo, man...IT WASN'T SUPPOSED TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WTF??"    I got nuthin.   

Who knows...maybe we may have a microclimate thing going on here? This is anecdotal, but I'd say we've had exactly this kind of "blow-up" very localized shower/storm over the Hayfield/Kingstowne/Franconia area several times over the past two years, where almost no other locales in the close-in-NoVA burbs had nothing. And it's like it blows up...and rains/storms like hell...and then dissipates very quickly. That happened this afternoon, and at least a few times over the past two years.

I (along with a couple neighbors) were astounded when the sky opened up about two hours ago. It didn't even LOOK that showery/stormy if you looked to the west/NW (unless you looked at radar) but boy-howdy...did we get a good gully-washer for about an hour.

[MN Transplant]

3 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

To your point, LWX has suddenly and retroactively changed their tune (though not necessarily in the PM disco update):

I appreciate your observation...and honestly, your personal inputs here over the years. And please believe, I defend your profession more than you know....I only approach this from a hobbyist standpoint, but twice already this afternoon, I've had two neighbors ping me -- "yo, man...IT WASN'T SUPPOSED TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WTF??"    I got nuthin.   

Who knows...maybe we may have a microclimate thing going on here? This is anecdotal, but I'd say we've had exactly this kind of "blow-up" very localized shower/storm over the Hayfield/Kingstowne/Franconia area several times over the past two years, where almost no other locales in the close-in-NoVA burbs had nothing. And it's like it blows up...and rains/storms like hell...and then dissipates very quickly. That happened this afternoon, and at least a few times over the past two years.

I (along with a couple neighbors) were astounded when the sky opened up about two hours ago. It didn't even LOOK that showery/stormy if you looked to the west/NW (unless you looked at radar) but boy-howdy...did we get a good gully-washer for about an hour.

Yeah, it’s tough when the result is this

[dailylurker]

If that rain in PG county was a few miles more east it would of cost me a lot of money today. I wasn't expecting training tropical showers. Thankfully it missed my work site in Crofton. The summer of rain won't stop in the lowlands. 

[wxdude64]

Picked up about 2/10ths around an hour ago with a thunderstorm, now that is back-building towards me and I can hear thunder again, maybe a bit more? 

[IronTy]

Tons of thunder moving in from the west at DCL.  It hasn't reached us yet at the cabin but it's getting close.  Breezy and 67F.  Need the rain here so I hope it makes it.  

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

Picked up about 2/10ths around an hour ago with a thunderstorm, now that is back-building towards me and I can hear thunder again, maybe a bit more? 

Yep, way over 1/2" and still raining pretty good with T&L. Nice 2nd storm of the evening  

[Jrlg1181]

17 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Yep, way over 1/2" and still raining pretty good with T&L. Nice 2nd storm of the evening  

Nice... can definitely see a nice light show back your way... In fact could see lightning high in the sky from just west of Charlottesville near Ivy driving home a hour ago...

[Jrlg1181]

Waiting to see if this essentially non moving storm about a half mile to my south can drift north.... 25 minutes now of T&L with the smell of rain in the air , but no rain yet..

[KAOS]

On 9/19/2025 at 8:08 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Your work is valuable and I like it

Perhaps... after taking a closer look I see they do not emulate my version of IntelliStar. The most "advanced" version of IntelliStar.

https://www.twcarchive.com/wiki/IntelliStar_2_XD

https://kaosfactory.github.io/desktopX1.html

I also have this...

https://kaosfactory.github.io/wxblox/geo.html

But this is really good work...

https://xl.weatherstar.dev/

Still kinda jealous.

 

 

 

 

 

[Jrlg1181]

Most surprisingly this has turned into a legit stormy overnight down here.... Over 2 hours now of continual thunder and vivid lightning... Occasional rain about 0.4 now..

[BlizzardNole]

Well that was awkward down in Calvert yesterday LOL.  We visited for a b-day dinner at a restaurant on the bay and I was saying all week "oh yeah we can sit outside - it's gonna be perfect weather."  I'm thinking what the heck is this as we drive south thru a heavy shower around Dunkirk, then it proceeds to rain much of the afternoon.  That was unexpected!

[wxdude64]

The 0.74" that fell from those rounds of thunderstorms yesterday evening until about midnight sets a new rainfall record for date, breaking 2015's 0.40 inches. Surprised how low that number is considering we are in prime tropics season, must have been swings and misses here. Anyway, starting day off in the fog and 57.4/56.8. That also took care of worrying about 'dry September's', lol. 

[JakkelWx]

This picture doesn't do it justice how dark this cloud really was. moisture laden storm cloud as i visited family.

[CAPE]

Overcast and 68. A tad gloomy but dry and a Fall like feel. Nice day for working outside.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

This picture doesn't do it justice how dark this cloud really was. moisture laden storm cloud as i visited family.

I mean Florida has downpours that can stop traffic.

[87storms]

The Atlantic cloud factory has shown slight weaknesses the last few minutes in Baker Park. Otherwise, it’s been cranking in ways only the mid-Atlantic can.

[stormy]

.16" last night makes .77" total rain for Sept.

[stormy]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

.16" last night makes .77" total rain for Sept.

This is 24% of normal thru 9-21.

[frd]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Overcast and 68. A tad gloomy but dry and a Fall like feel. Nice day for working outside.

Mount Holly forecast has cloudy weather for 6 days in a row. How depressing

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Mount Holly forecast has cloudy weather for 6 days in a row. How depressing

It's a warm pattern, so at least temps will be somewhat held in check. There will be some sun at times this week. We need the rain.

[frd]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's a warm pattern, so at least temps will be somewhat held in check. There will be some sun at times this week. We need the rain.

With the upcoming weather pattern, wondering if the conditions are favorable yet for overseeding. 

Have you started? 

Currently soil temperatures in the top 0 to 10 cm are averaging 70 degrees Fahrenheit I read optimal temperatures for fescue germination is between 50 and 65° f. 

Long range silly guidance on the AccuWeather app shows the end of October with the first freeze of the fall, I am not sure. I believe that although the weather has been known to make dramatic, turns near Halloween

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

With the upcoming weather pattern, wondering if the conditions are favorable yet for overseeding. 

Have you started? 

Currently soil temperatures in the top 0 to 10 cm are averaging 70 degrees Fahrenheit I read optimal temperatures for fescue germination is between 50 and 65° f. 

Long range silly guidance on the AccuWeather app shows the end of October with the first freeze of the fall, I am not sure. I believe that although the weather has been known to make dramatic, turns near Halloween

Yes I started last Sunday. Doing a combo of clover and grass seed in the brown areas. Clover is coming up already.

[ravensrule]

11 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Well that was awkward down in Calvert yesterday LOL.  We visited for a b-day dinner at a restaurant on the bay and I was saying all week "oh yeah we can sit outside - it's gonna be perfect weather."  I'm thinking what the heck is this as we drive south thru a heavy shower around Dunkirk, then it proceeds to rain much of the afternoon.  That was unexpected!

You should have taken Wes to dinner. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Watch us have a week of clouds with only a few winners in the rainfall department. This set up seems rather hit or miss. Would really like one day that's a regionwide soaker.

[wxdude64]

2 hours ago, frd said:

With the upcoming weather pattern, wondering if the conditions are favorable yet for overseeding. 

Have you started? 

Currently soil temperatures in the top 0 to 10 cm are averaging 70 degrees Fahrenheit I read optimal temperatures for fescue germination is between 50 and 65° f. 

Long range silly guidance on the AccuWeather app shows the end of October with the first freeze of the fall, I am not sure. I believe that although the weather has been known to make dramatic, turns near Halloween

I overseeded on Friday. Then it rained on Sat (0.26) and last evening (0.74), so win! Course I am a touch cooler than the coastal plain area.

Went 'tree peeping' today thru my county into Greenbrier county in WV, about 50% color above 2500 foot, 25-33% down lower. Maples, poplars, dogwoods, cherry and locusts changing, oaks mostly still green.

[JakkelWx]

Wow, what an impressive heat lightning show to my southeast! This comes after some afternoon storms earlier today. I will try to get some lightning shots. 

[BlizzardNole]

I'll be in Calvert Wed thru Sat staying with my dad and looking after pets while rest of family is out west for a wedding....including my nephew's SEVENTEEN chickens.  It's easy when it's dry, but they told me it's a huge mess when it rains.  Uh, I'm thinking I'm in trouble?   Time to look for some mudder boots.

QPF forecast looks juicy!

[dailylurker]

It looks like clouds and rain for the next 6 months setting in early this year lol. It started in late June here. I'm going to enjoy today before my trails turn to mud and slimy leaves again. Hopefully everything stays NW of my area.