September Discobs 2025

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, high risk said:

  Unfortunately, the 18Z joined the east trend.   We *may* still be in the game along the 95 corridor in Maryland, but we’re running out of wiggle room.   On the positive side, most guidance has a signal for some anafrontal rain, either during the late evening, overnight, or early Sunday hours. 

Woof. Team euro I guess. 0.5” would be nice since it’s probably not going to rain for 10 days after at least. 

[IronTy]

Up in the city for my wife's bday this weekend and was just out at crispus attucks for outdoor movie night and it's pretty gross out there.  The moon is pretty cool though.  Lots of mosquitoes.  Looking forward to the front that's coming through this weekend.  

[dailylurker]

Models don't see that enthusiastic about rain today. I hope what does fall, falls where it's needed and not here again. Stephen City can have my rain. 

[mappy]

Have an outdoor wedding to attend this evening in Baltimore. Woo storms?

[WxUSAF]

JB2 is losing trust in traditional models so is going with the weenie model 

 

[dailylurker]

I just saw that! I'm the first comment asking what model he's using. I guess the NAM wasn't enough for click bait. 

[RickinBaltimore]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

Have an outdoor wedding to attend this evening in Baltimore. Woo storms?

I hope not in the city itself. Traffic is a mess with the cycling event.

[high risk]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

I just saw that! I'm the first comment asking what model he's using. I guess the NAM wasn't enough for click bait. 

That’s the RRFS, which will become operational early next year. 
 

[high risk]

Some of us will get lucky and get a storm later this afternoon, but the best chance for widespread showers is later tonight into Sunday morning. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

Some of us will get lucky and get a storm later this afternoon, but the best chance for widespread showers is later tonight into Sunday morning. 

Hrrr likes the stratiform precip 

[Mrs.J]

Heading down to The Anthem tonight for a concert. Looks like we may catch some of the rain forecasted down there. 

[WxUSAF]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hrrr likes the stratiform precip 

Dang...3k NAM is even better.  Gimme that and I'm very happy.

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dang...3k NAM is even better.  Gimme that and I'm very happy.

      There is very strong agreement on the more widespread post-frontal precip - the questions are with timing, but consensus seems to favor an initial more organized area around midnight and then a second round closer to morning.  Some solutions keep the shower threat going until 10AM or so before we finally clear out.    If clouds do persist Sunday morning, it will be quite chilly until the clearing arrives.

      The storm coverage late this afternoon remains less clear, although most models show at least scattered storms around, with the NAM Nest really liking the DC to Baltimore corridor.   Still struggling to comprehend that the forecast soundings today in early September favor some tornado potential in Maine.

[SnowenOutThere]

What’s up with all the radar returns going on right now? I know birds and other animals can cause reflections but I’ve never seen widespread yellow reflections from that.

[WxUSAF]

31 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What’s up with all the radar returns going on right now? I know birds and other animals can cause reflections but I’ve never seen widespread yellow reflections from that.

Yeah that’s a little strange. Maybe they have it on clear air mode?

[mappy]

2 hours ago, RickinBaltimore said:

I hope not in the city itself. Traffic is a mess with the cycling event.

Thankfully not downtown, just inside the beltway. 

[MN Transplant]

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah that’s a little strange. Maybe they have it on clear air mode?

Something’s wrong with the processing, probably.  That’s upwards of 30dbz in precip mode.

[Rhino16]

It’s sooo dry, we got 0.01-0.05 on Thursday, but before that it was august 19th since the last rainfall, and that was around a quarter. Today doesn’t seem too promising in the NNK.

[WxUSAF]

21 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Something’s wrong with the processing, probably.  That’s upwards of 30dbz in precip mode.

I think your answer is a lot more plausible than this 

 

[MN Transplant]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think your answer is a lot more plausible than this 

 

Now I’m hesitating because the TDWRs are also showing elevated reflectivity.  I can see some bugs flying around, so it isn’t impossible.  I don’t know why Dover wouldn’t be showing the same though.

[87storms]

Have an outdoor wedding to attend this evening in Baltimore. Woo storms?

I remember attending an outdoor (I think summer) wedding. It was uncomfortable lol. I’d much rather be moving around than sitting there shvitzing and acting like a mosquito magnet.

[EstorilM]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What’s up with all the radar returns going on right now? I know birds and other animals can cause reflections but I’ve never seen widespread yellow reflections from that.

I came in here just to ask this! It filled in like some late evening fog / humidity will sometimes (usually in clear air mode) but it’s in precipitation mode.

 

It’s accurately showing the rain to the NW… nothing wrong with the radar it would seem, unless the software isn’t filtering out stuff like it usually does.

 

There is motion / waves to it that reflects what moisture in the atmosphere would be doing - just not sure why it’s only visible around IAD / the radar.

 

edit: They just now put it into clear air mode. My bet is they’re troubleshooting the filtering. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Something’s wrong with the processing, probably.  That’s upwards of 30dbz in precip mode.

Was driving back south on I-95 from New Jersey. We have so many dead bugs on our car. I'm going to have to get it washed.