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September Discobs 2025


George BM
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2 hours ago, high risk said:

  Unfortunately, the 18Z joined the east trend.   We *may* still be in the game along the 95 corridor in Maryland, but we’re running out of wiggle room.   On the positive side, most guidance has a signal for some anafrontal rain, either during the late evening, overnight, or early Sunday hours. 

Woof. Team euro I guess. 0.5” would be nice since it’s probably not going to rain for 10 days after at least. 

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

Some of us will get lucky and get a storm later this afternoon, but the best chance for widespread showers is later tonight into Sunday morning. 

Hrrr likes the stratiform precip 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dang...3k NAM is even better.  Gimme that and I'm very happy.

      There is very strong agreement on the more widespread post-frontal precip - the questions are with timing, but consensus seems to favor an initial more organized area around midnight and then a second round closer to morning.  Some solutions keep the shower threat going until 10AM or so before we finally clear out.    If clouds do persist Sunday morning, it will be quite chilly until the clearing arrives.

      The storm coverage late this afternoon remains less clear, although most models show at least scattered storms around, with the NAM Nest really liking the DC to Baltimore corridor.   Still struggling to comprehend that the forecast soundings today in early September favor some tornado potential in Maine.

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31 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What’s up with all the radar returns going on right now? I know birds and other animals can cause reflections but I’ve never seen widespread yellow reflections from that.

Yeah that’s a little strange. Maybe they have it on clear air mode?

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