September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 65 sunny for now.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem a soaker

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem a soaker

You'd hope we'd get some heavy rain at some point with this humidity sticking around for the rest of the week. 

[FPizz]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem a soaker

CMC 

[Picard]

Clown maps for now.

[steve392]

I'll believe it when my new rain gauge actually shows that.  My backyard is just dust.  

[donsutherland1]

Considering the magnitude of warmth that is likely for the second half of September, the odds are tilted toward a warmer than normal October. It has been a long time since a September 16-30 as warm as this year's will likely be, has been followed by a cool October, even against the 1991-2020 baseline.

CFSv2 Forecast for October 2025:

Current CPC Monthly Outlook:

The most recent ECMWF weekly forecast showed the potential for a cool start to October but very warm conditions in central Canada. So, a warm outcome is not cast in stone, but the combination of the CPC outlook, CFSv2 forecast, and statistical odds suggest that a warmer outcome is more likely than a colder one. Nevertheless, the highest odds of a warmer than normal outcome are probably in the western half of the CONUS and Canada.

[Stormlover74]

Euro wetter again

[WestBabylonWeather]

It’s not going to rain is it. 

[steve392]

80 degree's in Mahwah and just feels so disgusting out.  

[SACRUS]

 

84 /66 here

[psv88]

81/68. Summer says I’m not completely dead yet 

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

81/68. Summer says I’m not completely dead yet 

zero cold intrusions on anything for the next two weeks

[lee59]

79 the high here today

[IrishRob17]

56 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

zero cold intrusions on anything for the next two weeks

Hoodies remain in hibernation and shorts stay in regular rotation. 

[winterwx21]

85 with a dewpoint of 64 here right now. Feels like late August rather than late September. 

[donsutherland1]

Much of the region saw the mercury rise into the 80s today. The warmth will be trimmed in coming days.

A weak cool front will trigger some scattered showers overnight. Afterward, the front will stall near the region tomorrow. 

Several waves of low pressure will move along the front bringing showers and rain Thursday from Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely during this period. Some locations cuold see higher amounts in excess of 2.00".

Above normal temperatures will continue through at least the coming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +2.50 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.151 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.6° (0.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[uofmiami]

80.5 in Muttontown & 80.2 in Syosset today. 

[the_other_guy]

28 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Hoodies remain in hibernation and shorts stay in regular rotation. 

I mean hoodies and shorts can get you thru mid Dec if youre a dude

[winterwarlock]

86/69/90

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Much of the region saw the mercury rise into the 80s today. The warmth will be trimmed in coming days.

A weak cool front will trigger some scattered showers overnight. Afterward, the front will stall near the region tomorrow. 

Several waves of low pressure will move along the front bringing showers and rain Thursday from Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely during this period. Some locations cuold see higher amounts in excess of 2.00".

Above normal temperatures will continue through at least the coming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +2.50 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.151 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.6° (0.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

Maybe this isn't the last 80s just yet Don?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

86/69/90

This is much better than 50s with wind, omg I hate that weather.

 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Maybe this isn't the last 80s just yet Don?

Probably not. I am fairly sure that most or all of the NYC region have already seen their last 90s. 

In fact, there has been a big change in the ECMWF weeklies for the week of September 29-October 6 with the new run that just came out.

9/22 Run:

9/23 Run:

Beyond that, all the weeks are warmer than the were on the preceding run. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably not. I am fairly sure that most or all of the NYC region have already seen their last 90s. 

In fact, there has been a big change in the ECMWF weeklies for the week of September 29-October 6 with the new run that just came out.

9/22 Run:

9/23 Run:

Beyond that, all the weeks are warmer than the were on the preceding run. 

Looks like October might be warm and dry just like it was last year.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably not. I am fairly sure that most or all of the NYC region have already seen their last 90s. 

In fact, there has been a big change in the ECMWF weeklies for the week of September 29-October 6 with the new run that just came out.

9/22 Run:

9/23 Run:

Beyond that, all the weeks are warmer than the were on the preceding run. 

it was 97 on this date back in 1895, I wonder if that was our latest upper 90s on record Don (upper 90s = 97-99), we had some crazy heat in the 1890s (a 10 day heatwave in 1896 too).

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1970)
NYC: 97 (1895)
LGA: 93 (1970)
JFK: 90 (1970)


Lows:

EWR: 40 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1947)
LGA: 42 (1947)
JFK: 43 (1963)

Historical:

 

 

1722: La Nouvelle-Orléans (New Orleans) was founded May 7, 1718, by the French Mississippi Company, under the direction of Jean-Baptiste Le Moyne de Bienville, on land inhabited by the Chitimacha. Four years later, a hurricane destroys nearly every building in the village, including the only church and hospital.

1785: The "most tremendous gale of wind known in this country" passed over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and went along a track very similar to the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, lower stories of dwellings were flooded. Warehouses were totally carried away by the storm surge, causing large amounts of salt, sugar, corn, and lumber to disappear. A large number of cattle drowned, and people hung onto trees for dear life during the tempest. At Portsmouth, the entire town was submerged. Forrest's book, Sketches of Norfolk, offers this account of the storm: " This year, 1785, was noted for the highest tide ever before known to Norfolk, completely deluging a large portion of its site on the water side". Almost all ships in the area were driven from their moorings near Norfolk. No less than 30 vessels were seen beached after the storm. Damages totaled £30,000. At least two died due to shipping disasters. After ravaging Virginia, the system tracked up the coast to Boston.  (Ref. Hurricane of 1785)

1815 - One of the greatest hurricanes to strike New England made landfall at Long Island and crossed Massachusetts and New Hampshire. It was the worst tempest in nearly two hundred years, equal to the hurricane which struck in 1938, and one of a series of severe summer and autumn storms to affect shipping lanes that year. (David Ludlum)

1903: Bakersfield, CA dropped to 31°, their earliest below freezing temperature.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1904 - The temperature at Charlotteburg, NJ, dipped to 23 degrees, the coldest reading of record for so early in the autumn for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1937: From summer to winter. The temperature was 101 at Wheaton. Then a cold front came through causing the mercury to tumble below freezing. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1975: On September 22, Hurricane Eloise intensified to attain Category 2 strength, and became a major hurricane of Category 3 status shortly after that as it turned towards the northeast. Several ships penetrated the storm's center during its passage through the Gulf. Hurricane Eloise continued to strengthen until it reached its peak winds of 125 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of about 955 mbar. It moved ashore along the Florida Panhandle near Panama City on September 23.

1983 - A thunderstorm downburst caused a timber blowdown in the Kaibab National Forest north of the Grand Canyon. Two hundred acres were completely destroyed, and scattered destruction occurred across another 3300 acres. Many trees were snapped off 15 to 30 feet above ground level. (The Weather Channel)

1984: An early season snowstorm brought more than a foot of snow to some locations in the northern Plains and Rockies. Amounts of 6 to 12 inches were common over Harding and Perkins Counties as well as portions of Meade and Butte Counties in South Dakota. Camp Crook in Harding County reported 14 inches. Roads in these areas were covered with snow and slush and became icy. It was the snowiest September day on record at Sheridan, WY and Billings, MT with 12.9 inches and 6.2 inches respectively. Other snowfall totals included: Broadus, MT: 12 inches, Columbus, MT: 10 inches, Nye, MT: 10 inches, Clearmont, MT: 10 inches, Hysham, MT: 8 inches, Red Lodge, MT: 7 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: Early snow over portions of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Just under a half inch (.4) recorded at the Twin City Airport. Most of it fell during the afternoon. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - Autumn began on a rather pleasant note for much of the nation. Showers and thunderstorms were confined to Florida and the southwestern deserts. Warm weather continued in the western U.S., and began to spread into the Great Plains Region, but even in the southwestern deserts readings remained below 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the south central U.S. produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail near Noble and Enterprise, and baseball size hail at Lequire and Kinta. A tornado near Noble OK destroyed a mobile home injuring one person. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Seventeen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Devils Lake ND with a reading of 22 degrees. Jackson KY reported a record low of 41 degrees during the late afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold air into the central and northeastern U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Indianapolis IND. Winds along the cold front gusted to 65 mph at Norfolk VA, and thunderstorms along the cold front deluged Roseland NJ with 2.25 inches of rain in one hour. The temperature at Richmond VA plunged from 84 degrees to 54 degrees in two hours. Snow and sleet was reported at Binghamton NY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)


1995: Fort Wayne, IN reported its earliest frost on record as the morning low plunged to 29°. Springfield, IL recorded their earliest 32 temperature on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: A lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm damaged or destroyed 19 boats at Hobbs Hollow Marina on Table Rock Lake near the town of Viola, MO. Damage was estimated at $500,000 dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: In a remarkable span of 35 days from August 19th until September 23rd, 10 named tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic; 4 of which made landfall in the United States. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000 : The first snowstorm of the season brought heavy snow to parts of the Rockies. While the heaviest snow fell north of Denver, CO, 6 inches was reported at Boulder, 4 inches at Castle Rock and Morrison, CO. Denver, CO received just 0.2 inch as most of the precipitation fell as a cold rain. The foothills west of Denver received 5 to 10 inches. Further north, Cheyenne, WY received an additional 6.4 inches of snow bringing the storm total to 11.8 inches. Scottsbluff, NE received 5.7 inches of snow over two days. Behind the storm, Shirley Basin, WY dropped to 2°.  The Dallas/Fort Worth Airport in Texas recorded 0.01 inches of rain just before midnight on this date. This ended the longest streak of consecutive days without rainfall at the site of 84 days. The previous record was 58 days. Relief would finally arrive in October as beneficial rainfall fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

2005 - Hurricane Rita reached the Texas/Louisiana border area near Sabine Pass as a category-3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A storm surge of at least 15 feet flooded parts of Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes, where sugar cane crop losses were estimated near $300 million. An 8-foot storm surge in New Orleans overtopped the provisionally-repaired levees (from Hurricane Katrina damage) and caused additional flooding. A total of 10 fatalities were reported, and preliminary damage estimates ranged between $4-5 billion.

NYC: 97 (1895)

 

now THIS is pretty crazy lol

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like October might be warm and dry just like it was last year.

 

Boring zzzz

It can be warm but the weather has been a snooze fest. Give me a hurricane or something 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

zero cold intrusions on anything for the next two weeks

Just like back in 1895 and 1896 (I kid but you know what I mean lol).

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Boring zzzz

It can be warm but the weather has been a snooze fest. Give me a hurricane or something 

There's a hurricane that's going to hit the Azores, they're going in the wrong direction lol.

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it was 97 on this date back in 1895, I wonder if that was our latest upper 90s on record Don (upper 90s = 97-99), we had some crazy heat in the 1890s (a 10 day heatwave in 1896 too).

 

It was. October 1895 was very cool.